storm chaser
Unregistered
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Do not take it personal. I was just making a broad statement. Some of the people I work with think that everything is okay and I do not like to see that happen. They just need to keep a close eye on things, that's all.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I am noticing several comparisons of and Andrew, so I would like to clear a few things up...
Andrew was not one of those last minute track surprises--if you go back to the FTP site and look at the forecasts, they did forecast a turn to the west, and after that, Andrew moved west for 2 days without a track change
As for the comparisons, was much farther northeast than is right now, and is just now starting to show a northwest turn--Charley made a due north turn and turned northeast AT the coast; is still gaining longitude and woudl have to make an 80 degree angle with the track to turn northeast
Also, if you look at the IR loop you will notice a slight jog to the west
However, NO one should let their guard down anywhere in the gulf--It is just as likely to hit Texas as it is to turn northeast
I personally thing it will hit between St. Marks and Pensacola
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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These people located here in Central Florida. They are letting their guards down. Like Orange, Seminole, and Volusia couinties. I'm not, and I live in Volusia. I saw Charlie and Andrew. Not pretty!
There's a difference between being "aware" of where the storm is and totally letting your guard down.
I still have my hurricane kit handy and all my antenna's are up and tuned into . However I no longer expect it to influence the weather in Central Florida except for a breeze and maybe a few rain showers.
Is that letting your guard down? I don't know.
But I would plan to have a normal week in Central Florida if any of us are normal anymore.
We're all pretty much still bumed out.
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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Charley and Andrew used for destruction comparison, not direction comparison.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just watched TB's News. They are on at 11am. John Winter said, "We need to be CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. Do NOT let your guard down in any way, shape or form. Things can change, and as we've seen with , anything is possible. Even a couple hundred---or even a 100mile change in track to the right --- will make a huge difference in our weather."
He's concerned about that inverted ^ over the western U.S. pushing further north and east, and at the slow rate he's moving, it is important to pay attention. At the rate this things moving, we might still be looking at when we're handing out Halloween candy.
I would also add this as a people-watcher: he is not as comfortable as he was yesterday with 's projected path. You can read it in his body language.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Ref the question on the Disney Vacation.
Without question I would come.
All the resorts at Disney are up and running
and you will have a wonderful time.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Did anyone else notice the special announcement from the at 9am EST stating the preliminary organiization of a new storm over the Leeward Islands? Isn't that where started and where was just 5-6 days ago?
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Florida residents up to the Carolinas will have to monitor the situation slowly developing near the Leeward islands.
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lois
Unregistered
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http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trpG8wvL.html
check it out.. may be a prob for models
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Afternoon all!
Thanks for the interesting discussions! I have learned more about hurricanes, meteorology, and geography since 8:00 this morning!
Here is my question from a completely non-weather guy--My wife and I are "supposed" to head to Orlando tomorrow morning for a nice "relaxing" vacation in Disney World....Should we reschedule? Is this a bad idea waiting to happen? We will be there until Friday (flying in from Ohio). Any insight would be greatly appreciated!
Todd
At the moment, there is no reason to cancel your plans. I would expect, unlike normal September weather which can be hot, muggy and no breeze, that the forecast will include a breeze  Seriously, I would certainly keep abreast of conditions and forecasts but unless the track shifts way east, that Disney (who has a contract with the Wx Channel I suspect) will be open and relatively safe. In fact, if you live north of here, Ga, Tenn, Ohio, etc., it could prove safer due to flooding rains that will certainly develop from after landfall.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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I believe that the bottom line here is responsibility. Most houses here left their boards up from last week, we made sure that what supplies were used during were restocked, and many of us did not restock the meats, buying what is needed and no more. I have listened to news, and have spent time reading here, learning, checking out links and paying attention. Even though we are in the clear as far as that cone on the model, it is just a model, and is not obligated to follow the path that or any other model lays down. So I will lurk in the back ground here, reading every post, checking out every link, and educating myself so I can make responsible decisions with the information provided me. What else is there to do? Just my 2cents
Super! Great testimony to the need for this site. MikeC, the has been of great service to so many people. Glad to hear people are donating. Thanks again!
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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lois...you may want to explain what you mean in that post besides just posting a link. There are a lot of new people here that just started their new weather hobby, and that loop won't do anything except to confuse them.
If I'm thinking what you're thinking, you may be seeing the trough coming down faster and pushing the storm further to the NW/N? Is this correct?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Do not take it personal. I was just making a broad statement. Some of the people I work with think that everything is okay and I do not like to see that happen. They just need to keep a close eye on things, that's all.
I rarely take things personal unless you are pointing a gun at me, but I did feel compelled to take a generic statement made by you that implied all of CF residents were letting their guard down. I think the attitudes of your co-workers may be their way of 'breating', not necessarily becoming indifferent to the situation. CF is NOT out of the woods yet, nor is Tampa or the big bend, or even Key West, but the PROBABILITYs are now much lower. When they go to zero, I'll let my guard down on and concentrate on what may become TD#11.
PS, if your co-workers ARE letting their guard down, it doesn't mean the reast of us are, and it also gives you an excuse to 're-educate' them.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at this WV loop....Ivan looks to be going NNW already
(animate with the 30 frame selection)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
--Lou
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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You are correct. I tried to re-educate, but it doesn't always work. Nice chating with you and getting your insight on the situation.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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In the last 2 frames of this loop you can see an almost due north movement. If he starts moving north that put all of FL's west coast in target range again...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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I totally agree with that statement. Yet, it may be a wobble, lets give it a few more frames to see what happens. EVen if it wobbles more north though, this would increase fl chances whould it not?
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Central Gulf coast - close up
Cuba / Keys - close up
Full size images here: Skeetobite.com
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Look at this WV loop....Ivan looks to be going NNW already
(animate with the 30 frame selection)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
--Lou
Lou, It *may* be going NW or even NNW at the moment, but it is the trend over hours that is important in the long run. My post did not exclude *any* location such as Orlando or Tampa, just that probabilities are now lower. It may be improbable that I ever win the lotto, but it *could* happen...just that I am not currently counting on it to pay bills
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
You are correct. I tried to re-educate, but it doesn't always work. Nice chating with you and getting your insight on the situation.
In the long run, it *is* important what YOU yourself do and say, not only now, but during your entire lifetime. You know the old saying about leading a horse to water but can't make it drink? Well, my advice is to try and keep the water available. By your actions and word, *show* those who are less 'thinking' the better way you follow.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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