Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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To answer a couple of other questions...
BillD re: radar fix in RECCO -- it's another factor of the storm being over land. They can't fix the center with a dropsonde if part of it is over land, particularly Cuba, so the best they are able to do is radar. Since an updated position was requested/required, they were tasked to use radar to provide the with such a fix.
Steve -- it's interesting to note, though, that the ETA and many other regional/mesoscale models receive their initial/boundary conditions from the . Whatever the sees along the periphery, so does the Eta. It is true that the occasionally suffers from some convective feedback problems, but I would rather go with a global dynamical model rather than a simplistic dynamical model such as the BAM series...or even a mesoscale model such as the Eta. Personal preference, though, but one that has seemingly proven over time to best handle tropical cyclones. With a complex flow pattern involving , I think the global model is going to have the better handle on it.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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From Mobile NWS
SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PARTS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH. STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE GREATER THAN OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA IN HURRICANE
OPAL IN 1995 & HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1998. WE WILL BE IN NEAP TIDES
THURSDAY MORNING SO HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE SURGE
VALUES.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Neither -- research is my forte. Tropical meteorology is where it's at (and what I'm currently working on), although there will be smaller concentrations on modeling and midlatitude weather.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I completely agree that they should go with the official track. I just don't like to hear them have the "it's a done deal, don't concern yourself with it anymore" attitude.
BTW, sorry if I'm a tad grumpy, but to add to the hurricane stress, we just returned from the hospital. Had a hit and run accident where a car in our neighborhood hit my son on his bike (from behind) then took off. Had to call the police. Son had to get a few staples in his head, minor concussion, sprains, scrapes, etc, but mostly okay.
Back on topic, don't think it's going to hit us directly, but still have a feeling it's going further east than they are currently saying. We'll probably get a little bit of high water, rain and minor wind. Just my opinion, though.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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very good. Plz stay at it, I need to go back for more schooling. I have a degree in Met and worked in ruskin NWS for a short skint. But I would need to go back for broadcasting and my masters to move up higher in the Meteorolgy field. Hope you make it.
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mud1967
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I totally agree about the trees!! They are very beautiful but in a storm power outages seem to be frequent.
If it does go as far as Ft Walton or PC I know that I can't stay.
How likeky is it that it will come that far east?
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Offshore Gulf of Mexico Forecast
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
.TONIGHT AND TUE...HIGHEST WIND 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT NEAR CENTER OF . S OF 26N E OF 89W TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH ESTIMATED HIGHEST SEAS 58 FT.
ELSEWHERE S OF 28N WIND N TO NE 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 15 FT. N OF 28N WIND E 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 8 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF .
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST WIND 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT NEAR CENTER OF . TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER N OF 23N WITH ESTIMATED HIGHEST SEAS 55 FT. S OF 23N WIND WLY 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF .
.WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGHEST WIND 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT NEAR CENTER OF ...DECREASING 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND N OF 24N. ESTIMATED HIGHEST SEAS 50 FT. S OF 24N WIND SW 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF .
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:58 AM)
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waatcher
Unregistered
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i know this subject hasn't been up for a while but i haven't had time to post since then.
i saw a few people kind of busting on Mayor Nagin (of New Orleans) for issuing voluntary evacuation.
But can you imagine being the mayor of New Orleans who didnt issue evacuation if something did hit??
anywhos..i notice lots of peeps on this board still feel may be heading more to FL
I also notice on the New Orleans boards they think its coming here without a doubt.
i'm beting if i went to a SC board they would all think it coming there.
does anyone here envision any danger for new orleans
thoughts with anyone in the path
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Depending on what part of the City you live in, and your proximity to 1-the Lake, 2-the Levee, 3-the floodgates.
If you have had knee deep water in your street in the last 7 years you need to find higher ground.
7 years ago the Airport flooded.
You, me and most of the rest of the folks here are under a Hurricane Watch. If your area flash floods from 1 inch of rain, I would personally get out. Baton Rouge looks okay at this hour, but that won't last long.
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 01:08 AM)
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103177
Registered User
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Posts: 3
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I have lived in Tampa my entire life, 46 years, and have seen a lot of strange things happen with these storms. With a major Hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico that is still South of my location, the wood stays up!
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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I would have to agree with you. Despite what I hear and what the forecasts, I still just can't understand their logic. It just seems a right hand turn toward the east makes more sense based on the erratic activity. I just know one word that still keeps me wary: Elena.
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J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Sorry to jump off topic
Looks like we're going to stay busy; in the Gulf, TD11 in the leewards and something new from Africa.
Full size:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
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waatcher
Unregistered
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3 blocks off the river but within the flood protection zone of the French Quarter
i dunno..i'm so confused
even the mets on this forum think its going to FL
2 dogs and 3 cats and other stuffs
maks thinking of evac dificult
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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NO is one of those places that has to start evacs well before they are sure that the hurricane is coming their way. It takes a long time to move all the people in the area that are in danger ... and they have to do it before escape routes go under water. There's a dip in Interstate 10 that goes under a RR bridge that is like 12 feet below sea level...
'shana
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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Here is a link that shows you the GOM wave height.
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here are some links related to Hurricanes in New Orleans. Try them all maybe they will help.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/?/washingaway/
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chuck325
Unregistered
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WXMAN do you still belive its going to hit Pensacola please let me know Cause I live in P-cola.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Something else to watch buoys in the Gulf and notice the wave heights going up. You have Station 42039 (115nm ESE Pensacola) that has slowly grown to 7.2ft wave height from 4.6ft 24 hours ago. Even more impressive is Station 42003 (260nm S Panama City) that went from 5.6ft to 12.5ft over 24 hours.
This isn't even the storm central area, either. This is just the wonderful wave heights building as the winds push the water of the Gulf northward.
Darn, I gotta hope against hope this thing just gets sheared to heck and back and becomes a minimal Cat 1 on landfall. To hope for anything else is to wish grief on people somewhere on the Gulf Coast...
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Londovir
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Unlucky
Unregistered
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Even though the track does go to mobile I have a sneeking suspicion that the storm is going to make land fall between gulf shores al. and Navarre bch in florida. Does anybody else feel that is going to happen: most likley a P-cola landfall......AND A NOTE TO THE NEWSCASTERS AND METEROLOGISTS AND THE MAYOR OF NEW ORLEANS ON JUMPING THE GUN LIKE THEY DID IN THE KEYS THEIR GOING TO FIND OUT THAT ALL THEIR GOING TO GET IS A STIFF BREZZE OUT OF THE NORTH........UNLESS FOR SOME REASON THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE TROUGH DIPPING DOWN RETREATED WEST WHICH IS HIGHLY UNLIKLEY I DONT KNOW HOW THEY CAN EVEN CONCLUDE A N.O HIT. AGAIN UNLESS I MISSING SOMETHING PLEASE LET ME KNOW?
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FunkyLamb
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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The much talked about trough is pushing NE. The other problem is the high over Florida may increase a bit. According to local mets, the next deep trough will get here right about the time landfall occurs.
On top of all of that, the shearing winds seemed to have dissapated tonight.
1AM CDT...Pressure up to 922mb.
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FunkyLamb
I'm just a simple man trying to make my way in the universe.
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