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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Bloodstar
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Musings at 1:45AM [Re: Londovir]
      #26967 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:11 AM

Disclaimer: I am not a Met, I do not have the learning to make an accurate forecast if the storm was on top of me, I just might say it's sunny and clear. With that said...

Right now, my fear, once again, is the idea that people may start dropping their guard when weather forecasters say, "this storm is not a threat." A cat 5 storm in the gulf of mexico is a threat to anyone and everyoe on the Gulf Coast. With the terrible performance of the models up to this point (has any model managed to predict this storm with any consistancy yet????) I'm even less inclined to trust any model that takes a storm one way or another. In fact, until the storm started turning more north, I was seriously debating if just extrapolating the movement would be more accurate than any model runs.

But now, the storm has started to recurve. An interesting thing I'd heard a while back: Storms tend to follow a parabolic or Hyperbolic path. Which to me, means North East. But when?

So,by logic, this would mean to me, the storm has nearly reached the furthest possible westward movement. Also by this logic, once the storm begins it's Eastward componant, it'll move into a ENE motion at some point.

Everything hinges on when.

And, at this point, I don't even want to think when....

Go Falcons! 1-0
Mark


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: Bloodstar]
      #26968 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 AM

At the risk of sounding crazy, I have been looking at water vapor loops tonight and the pictures I am looking at unless they are way hours old, tell the story. The hurricane is going to go where the moisture is available. It will not break out over into the dry areas shown on the loops. That places the cane due north into the area between Tallahassee and Appalachicola. The storm is going to wobble back and forth positioning itself I believe off the western Central Gulf and Peninsula of Florida, but the moisture is due north of the cane and not to the west as of the pix I am seeing. I do not see any more moisture folding in anytime soon either. The westerly flow towards the east is obvious and I think that when they have new pix to show (probably after the eclipse) we will see more of the story. I don't say this lightly as I have family in this direction, but, the only other solution I see would be for the cane to spin down to an annoyance to spare the Tallahassee/Georgia/Jacksonville/Carolinas area or worse yet get back into the Atlantc and then raise some more Cane!!! Take this with a grain of salt. This weather approaching from the south is making my bones ache and keeping me awake I have to be at work later today no matter whether I got any sleep or not.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: tenavilla]
      #26969 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 AM

Quote:

The met on the ABC affiliate here (can't remember his name, wears suspenders) just said that because the NHC shifted the 11pm west, this means they are "very confident with the forecast track" and basically told us we were completely out of the woods. He said all we have to worry about this week is normal afternoon thunderstorms. He

went on to say Ivan was pretty much out of time to make the northeast turn to affect us. Seems a tad premature to me. Definitely don't want it here, but I don't see how a met can say it definitely won't affect us either.




At some point in time, you simply have to trust the NHC and their expertise with these storms.
Look, we got hit with two storms this season which is an Extreme Rarity.
Most hurricanes that enter the gulf go NW then N and do NOT make a hard NE turn into the peninsula of Florida.
We are all sufering from post hurricane stress and think every storm is at our doorstep.
This one is the upper gulf coasts storm.


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Elaine H
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26970 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM

They are looking pretty accurate from the Sat pics. I am glad to miss this one in Tampa Bay. Right now I am hoping for a drop in intensity for the gulf coast. All we can do now is hope for the best and that everyone is prepared.

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chinook
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Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26971 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM

"At the risk of sounding crazy, I have been looking at water vapor loops tonight and the pictures I am looking at unless they are way hours old, tell the story. The hurricane is going to go where the moisture is available."

There's nothing crazy about your observations at all. Here's my hunch in the context of the events of the last several days, and why. I'll start with the modeling. Clearly, CAT5 is beyond the range of available data. Any competent analyst/researcher that builds an empirical model provides ranges from sample data and precautions to users regarding extrapolations, i.e. projections beyond the ability of source data to estimate conditions, location, etc. But in the "real" world, by the time model output is dropped in the laps of (1) those that execute the programs, and (2) the end user, all precautions are gone or ignored. Mix in the politics and federal funds, and output mysteriously becomes biblical. Thus, each day the models screw up, folks go to bed, and then everyone starts a new day to see where the models point, all in an atmosphere of total effective amnesia regarding the previous day's failure. It's groundhog day all over again. I know there are a lot of sensitivities out there, but it is unreasonable to claim the models do better today than they did 20 years ago, and then use the statement to justify repeated gross error. So what. The models blew it back at Jamaica at best, and probably back in Grenada. End of story. One contributor last night posted an image of daily misses vs. Ivan's actual track. This was an interesting exercise that reveals persistent bias, but the approach suffers from, in a sense, serial correlation - errors each day that should be compounded, or propagated, and that are dependent on previous errors, are ignored. Once Ivan left the prediction "cone" many days earlier, meaning it effectively left the (presumed) 95% bounds for the predicted value(s) output by the models, the models had failed, the projected track left Ivan, and it's back to the drawing board for a new model. It no longer matters, from a modeling perspective, if Ivan now hangs a sharp right and does a 90 into Florida (just an example, folks). The models failed.

Granted, forecasting is extraordinarily complex and encumbered by sparse data. Folks in the way 2 or 3 days out need a feel for what to expect in the form of impending danger. Model runs will continue. But as Ivan virtually straightlined through the Caribbean, rather than shoot up the west Florida coast, posters here and presumably everywhere recognized the apparent land aversion. Even the special effort Ivan made over the last couple of days to avoid Cuba draws attention. As such, given this is a monster CAT5, there is not a reason in the world to believe any model was going to predict back at Grenada that this would be the path. There are simply too few observations (available data), and too many fundamental voids in theory, to expect any better. Nor do I recall in the casual surfing I've done during this circus that any forecaster called this path back at Grenada, though as a sheer matter of probability, one is out there somewhere. JB got close in his own way, but he bailed.

Thus, speculation about outlier hurricane behavior is by no means out of place. Nobody else has it figured out, that's for sure. Perhaps new thinking is required, and this is how the model revamping process starts. For example, maybe the apparent land aversion is not a land aversion at all. Maybe, for a hurricane of this strength, the rules change. Perhaps water vapor is the answer; here's my gut feeling. Perhaps a very large hurricane must be viewed not as just an intense cyclone, but as a body of (relatively) hot water looking for a release mechanism, thermodynamics in action, where guiding winds and low and high pressure systems are of much lesser importance. In this sense, Hurricane Caribbean ended last night, and with morning we say hello to Hurricane Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone itself is the energy release mechanism that has just by chance become available (where "by chance" means we do not have the understanding necessary to explain and accurately project the release mechanism's birth and transport). So while we watched Ivan's eye meander somewhat and the system appeared to avoid land, perhaps what was really happening is that the tremendous energy in the hot bath of the Caribbean, the core of what we are observing as an energy system, simply would not let go of the energy release mechanism. Similarly, perhaps water vapor has it's own role to play, since we are dealing with highly complex energy systems.

I grant these ideas can and will be easily criticized for being trivial, simplistic, ignorant and practically redundant. But nobody has gotten Ivan right yet. Importantly, we must question the wisdom of providing 5-day incorrect misleading error-laden forecasts, particularly for an outlying event for which there is little precedence and at best sparse data. Surely people died in accidents of various sorts (cars, heart attacks, fights, emotional standoffs and domestic disputes) as they fled or boarded-up under incorrect pretenses. We will not hear about them. To state, as some have, that it is better to be safe than sorry, is to succumb to the precautionary principle. Should we live lives of total paranoia? Maybe Long Island should be evacuated, just in case. Heck, we might as well evacuate Colorado, just in case. Just how safe should we be, and how wrong should models be before we finally draw a line and say wait - there must be a better way. After all, it's our taxes that are paying for the models, and taxpayers' lives that are endangered.

Sure, hurricanes are complex circulations that are tossing moist and dry air all over the place. But maybe there is something to your water vapor idea...


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:1000z Update [Re: chinook]
      #26972 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:20 AM

5AM Probabilities Short version
I am going straight to the text version with this. I realize the models probably dictate the probability output, but plain numbers work better for some folks.
Here's the breakdown for selected cities. You can view the full report under the Probabilities heading.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/140838.shtml?
From the Big Bend area west:Total thru 2AM Fri
Cedar Key= 7%
St Marks=12%
Appalachicola=14%
Panama City=16%
Pensacola=21%
Mobile=23%
Gulfport=23%
Buras,LA( Mouth of the MS RVR) =25%
New Orleans=22%
New Iberia=16%
Chances of center of hurricane passing within 65nm of the location thru 2AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26973 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:21 AM

The water vapor loop refelcts a huge dry air mass coming down from the Northwest. The experts must see this pulling up more than the pix show.

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storm 1
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Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #26974 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:32 AM

the center seems to be getting blown apart this thing is about to come apart maybe a 2 at land fall with no west side good luck guys.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Center [Re: storm 1]
      #26975 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:37 AM

Nice thought, but I don't believe it will happen.
He's been holding his own no matter what.


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Terra
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: HCW]
      #26976 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:42 AM

Quote:

From Mobile NWS

SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PARTS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH. STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE GREATER THAN OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA IN HURRICANE
OPAL IN 1995 & HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1998. WE WILL BE IN NEAP TIDES
THURSDAY MORNING SO HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE SURGE
VALUES.




If the moon is new, which I believe it is..... isn't that constructive interference and thus a spring tide and a larger tidal range?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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MrSpock
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Clark, [Re: scottsvb]
      #26977 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:28 AM

excellent post, and you have confirmed many of my thoughts as well. Accuweather sees this as getting as far as 89 west, but I don't see it either. After not wanting to turn, this turned more than expected. As of this writing, the h2o pic shows the ULL is STILL digging. I think it was expected to be lifting out by now.

Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 14 2004 07:29 AM)


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MrSpock
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Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: Clark]
      #26978 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 AM

Last year when my wife and I went to Jamaica, we were told we weren't allowed to take pictures when we flew over Cuba, and they alerted us to that fact, so your probably right on the dropsonde issue.

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Steve hirschb.
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Re: Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #26979 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:37 AM

Hey Skito/all, still don't have power and little time to check models here at work, so help me out please. Future track of soon to be Jean seems to show that it will stay off the east coast and may be a fish. Is this the future track and thinking of the NHC/Mets? Is the ridge going to weaken and now NOT turn it WNW again?? Hope so. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks. Still sweating in Palm Bay.

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MrSpock
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Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: chinook]
      #26980 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:43 AM

I have to disagree with you about the models. I am the one who has been posting that they are better now than 20 years ago, and that is a fact. I used models 20 years ago, even more than I do now. I was thrilled to be able to see a 72 hour MRF back then. There were no ensembles that I know of. Do they have errors? Yes, they ALWAYS will. But, remember the ones they get right, and not only the ones they have trouble with. Some error is to be expected. Many forecasters don't even have experience forecasting a storm like this. These are too few and far between.
I will take the ETA or GFS any day over the LFM.
As I said before, the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts. That shows they can now go out 67% farther in time with the same error, and that IS an improvement.


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Steve
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Terra]
      #26981 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM

First of all, check out the 10:45UTC Goes 12 IR. You're going to have to back it up a couple of frames to see.

Goes 12 IR

A face emerged in the eye - Sheep? Dog? Whale? You call it.

Having that out the way, you people in Coastal Mississippi and Coastal Alabama REALLY need to prepare for a major-league storm surge. The 06Z ETA, GFS and other related models are out and have come around to my way of thinking. The storm is going to get very close to the Mouth of the MS and veer a bit N-NNE toward the Mississippi Coast. Whether the system is getting ragged or if we're in another eyewall replacement cycle should be a good indicator of how strong it's going to be at landfall. We're facing a threat of anywhere between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 (most likely a low-mid 3 IMHO) at landfall. Due to the size of the storm, if I have the right ideas, nasty weather will be farther east all the way to possibly Seaside-Panama City Beach - especially watch out for torandic activity on the fringes east as always.
-------------------------------------------------
I read Bastardi this morning. He's pretty sure it's going to come up to 89 or 88W though 90 is his western-most edge. He thinks there will be hurricane impacts for the Crescent City but notes that this isn't our doomsday scenario ala the hurricane of 1947 where a storm cutting ESE south of the city dumps the Gulf into the Lake and spills the Lake into the city. He sees (on his track) hurricane force north wind gusts, rain, flooding and other assorted problems, but this is not the same as the threat for Mobile if the storm comes up just west of there. Think MASSIVE water piling up into a funnel shaped bay. He also believes the storm will be somewhat slow moving and weakening at landfall. It may have Charley pressure, but not the same surprise impact. He cautioned that Mobile-Pensacola is vulnerable and he will not hesitate to change his ideas if he sees an actual path that is off of his ideas and further east, he will not hesitate to say so.
---------------------------------------------------- Hurricane force winds are expected roughly 100 miles either side of landfall and tropical storm winds are possible 200 miles either way. Therefore, a storm impacting Gulfport would have tropical storm force winds from lower Terrebonne & Lafourche Parishes in LA to just east of Panama City Beach.

This is shaping up to be a storm for all of us on the Northern Gulf Coast. Take care and get those precautions and final preps. I'm getting ready to take the old lady's car over to the tire store to get her some new wheels so she can cruise out to Memphis later this afternoon. As stated last night, I'll be hunkering in expecting some nasty but not destructive weather.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Novice
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26983 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 AM

That thing has teeth (the image you were talking about).... Being a novice...what affect should the ULL have on Ivan?

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jth
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26984 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 AM

If the GFS moved back west, I would suspect many of the models will follow suit. I think the confidence in the landfall is growing exponentially. The question now is intensity. Someone posted here earlier that there was some fear that the sheer would not be as strong as first thought. Is there any validity to this? I still think it will be a major, even possibly still a cat 4 at landfall.

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dani
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Recon [Re: jth]
      #26985 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 AM

Is the storm really weakening as fast as the latest numbers projecting. With estimated maximum surface winds at 118 mph?

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Steve
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #26986 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 AM

Not sure about the sheer values, haven't had time to check them. Two local mets discussed that last night. The real question is how far west Ivan can get. He's moved 1W/5N from the 5 to the 7am advisory. He's only near 86.1. So if the western component is out, the threat shifts toward Alabama and West Florida. But the NHC said yesterday that the ridge should work a NW movement after 12 hours which is around this time. Though I think western MS is now the hotspot, I have trouble seeing Ivan getting passed 87.5W. Today will be a nervous one for many! I'm off to the tire store.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ed in Va
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Jean as fish? [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #26987 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM

Dunno about mets discussing Jean, but most of these point to a midAtlantic event.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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