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#Sam heading NW still a Major and Bermuda should watch. Elsewhere, fish spinning persists from a very active Main Development Region.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nicholas) , Major: 29 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1083 (Michael) Major: 1083 (Michael)
17.2N 53.9W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 953mb
Moving:
Nw at 9 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GENIE
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27223 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:27 PM

Are there any SLOSH models on the web?

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27224 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:28 PM

Method of post Spock

Here's the link to a thread discussing the very idea on Storm2k. Purdue's got a different take than you do, but you might find it of interest just the same.

Evidence of Ridge Building in N of Ivan

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Please let that be a jog [Re: FireAng85]
      #27225 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:30 PM

may not be a jog...it looks pretty solid to me, not a wobble but a turn; the trough is approaching TX now from N.Mex and it is approaching at twice the speed that Ivan is moving...looks like a good push too. I expect the discussion to deal with this as it did last night at this time. (remember a NNW move yesterday and a prediciton of a return to NW and it did so.)
If Ivan is being influenced by the ATl ridge and is following that flow, then is the ridge influence puling out sooner than forecast? We'll have to see.

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
5:00 [Re: doug]
      #27226 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:34 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Still 140mph, still a CAT IV and Still supposed to be a CAT IV tomorrow...still looks like Mobile Bay is the BULLSEYE!

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 5:00 [Re: LI Phil]
      #27227 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:37 PM

lets see what the discussion says

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doug


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: Steve]
      #27228 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:39 PM

I couldn't read it because it requires a password.

Oh well.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27229 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:42 PM

The discussion will be written by James Franklin, not Stacy Stewart...let's hope it's as insightful...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Renee
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: 5:00 [Re: doug]
      #27231 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:54 PM

So, we weren't imagining the due north movement.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 5:00 [Re: Renee]
      #27232 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:03 PM

Every time the site goes down I get to check what others (pros, not S2K or HCity); everyone is coming more and more into agreement with my yesterday call for a Strong III or (much stronger) just west of Mobile Bay. This could be REALLY REALLY BAD; it's going to be bad enough no matter where it hits...a 20' storm surge with 25' waves filtering into Mobile Bay....good god let's pray this does not happen...

Mobile storm surge maps

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 14 2004 05:07 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: Steve]
      #27233 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:04 PM

Steve, where is their disagreement? Just curious....

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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: 5:00 [Re: Renee]
      #27235 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:08 PM

Renee,

What is your gut feeling about what is coming to Tallahassee?


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: 5:00 [Re: LI Phil]
      #27237 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:11 PM

Just wondering....How far is it between let's say 87west and 85 just east of that?

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: 5:00 [Re: mud1967]
      #27238 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:15 PM

new thread guys and girls

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