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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
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Atlanta [Re: kelcot]
      #27093 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:47 PM

I think alot of people headed TO Atlanta to get away from this storm. As if traffic isn't bad enough there with the regulars, now they've got people who drive normally with 2 million who all think they're driving for NASCAR. My Suburban becomes a weapon as soon as I hit I-285. I've been known to make grown men cry coming down the ramp from I-285 to 85-N.
They THINK they aren't gonna move over, but I make THEM think TWICE.
I always win.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ddrehman
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Water vapor [Re: Daytonaman]
      #27094 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:50 PM

Hello, could someone explain to me when I look on the water vapor satellite image the black and orange is the dry air? And how does this or will this effect Ivan, because from what I see it looks to be where they say Ivan will make landfall . Does this not have some effect on the steering of a hurricane? Thank you.

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doug
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Re: Atlanta [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27096 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:51 PM

Go Lightening...1 day until the NHL lockout

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doug


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gravity Waves [Re: Daytonaman]
      #27097 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:53 PM

I think it's in between NNW and N. Great link, thanks!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Mozart
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Re: Atlanta [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27098 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:55 PM

The weather forecasts on the local channels in ATL and here in Greenville are causing people to try and find out what's going on. That's why you're starting to see more "inlanders" around. We're being told to batten down the hatches for this one. Lots of talk about massive power outages in this area if we get the rain they're thinking over the weekend. Nothing but pine trees in soft, wet ground around here right now.

I can see the ASPLUNDH and Davey Tree Service trucks rolling down I-85 from my office window...wonder how many of them actually end up hanging in this area until the weekend.


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kelcot
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Re: Atlanta [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27099 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:55 PM

1. While driving in Atl, you should act as if you are driving for Nascar. When in doubt floor it. That's really funny that you drive that way. I do the same thing. My husband has named me Brass Balls when I'm behind the wheel.

2. If Atl does get a lot of the evacuees (sp?), they will be in for a rude awakeing. You think people in Fl freak about storms, it's nothing compaired to here. Even though we're only projected to get TS winds, Home Depot and Lowes will be out of plywood, batteries, etc. The grocerey stores will be out of bread, milk and eggs. You should see how people act up here when we're supposed to get 1/4 inch of snow.....LOL

3. Phil, do you think that Ivan will strengthen one more time before landfall?

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Kelly


Edited by kelcot (Tue Sep 14 2004 04:58 PM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: FL Threats [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27100 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:56 PM

Quote:

LI Phil...my suspicion is that Florida's luck has run out...beginining this year and during the remander of this decade.




Hopefully before anymore storms occur, building codes are tightened up some more in FL. Something especially needs to be done with trailer homes and manufactured homes, they are disaster waiting to happen down here. Miami-Dade County I know has better building codes, than many areas. After witnessed in the two storms so far this year, Inland Areas in Central Florida can receive 100+ MPH hurricane force winds. Its time the builders start making stronger houses, and be required to provide hurricane shutter with new homes, as they are in other coastal counties.

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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LI Phil
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Re: Water vapor [Re: ddrehman]
      #27101 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:57 PM

>>> Hello, could someone explain to me when I look on the water vapor satellite image the black and orange is the dry air? And how does this or will this effect Ivan, because from what I see it looks to be where they say Ivan will make landfall . Does this not have some effect on the steering of a hurricane? Thank you.

I'm far from an expert on this, but lemme give it a shot...yes, the brown (orange?) is dry air. This would serve to weaken a hurricane...but...(haven't checked for bout an hour) last I looked, Ivan was maintaining pretty decent outflow...that's the "explosion" of counterclockwise 'air' from the hurricane...that serves to mitigate the effects of the dry air. We'll see what effect it has on Ivan.

As get gets more northerly in the gulf, he's expected to encounter some more shear and the upper-level westerlies will also begin to go to work on his high cloud tops...so he should definitely weaken down to a CAT III. Also appeared to be undergoing another ERC last I looked.

Still think he's going into Mobile (sorry guys) as a Strong III...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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MrSpock
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Re: Water vapor [Re: ddrehman]
      #27102 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:58 PM

The black and orange depict how dry the air is, and this "batch" came down with the trough that pulled Ivan NW and NNW. Even though the trough is departing, the dry air is actually being drawn into the very large circulation of Ivan. Whenever a tropical system ingests dry air, it has a chance to weaken because the hurricane needs a very warm, moist, environment as the energy to keep convection going. Sometimes it is temporary, and in this case, the NHC is expecting the atmosphere to be a little less hostile towards Ivan in about 24 hours I think.
I would also point out that this storm is very lopsided, as per Dr. Neese's explanation on TWC. This is also a direct result of the westerlies impacting Ivan, and again, Ivan was pulled up into these westerlies by that trough that left the dry air in the Gulf. It is almost as if the atmosphere is trying to "shove" the storm to the right, but it still remains a bully of a system.


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bella
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Re: Water vapor [Re: MrSpock]
      #27103 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:00 PM

it looks like Ivan is stationary again? am i seeing this wrong?

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ddrehman
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Re: Water vapor [Re: MrSpock]
      #27104 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:00 PM

Is there still a possibilty that it could be "shoved " right? Thanks for all the info.

Debbie


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MrSpock
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Re: Water vapor [Re: MrSpock]
      #27105 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:01 PM

URNT12 KNHC 141540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1540Z
B. 23 DEG 24 MIN N
86 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2496 M
D. 55 KT
E. 226 DEG 65 NM
F. 319 DEG 102 KT
G. 227 DEG 027 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 13 C/ 3089 M
J. 16 C/ 3079 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 1234/7
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF984 3409A Ivan OB 22
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NW QUAD 1411Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 228/19NM FROM
FL CNTR. NEW EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

Speaking of being a bully, in spite of the more hostile environment, the eyewall is closed again, and the pressure stopped rising-actually fell 1 mb, but the amt. of drop is insignificant at this point.


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kelcot
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Re: FL Threats [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #27106 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:01 PM

Its time the builders start making stronger houses, and be required to provide hurricane shutter with new homes, as they are in other coastal counties.




It's required for builders to put hurricane shutters on new homes in coastal counties?

--------------------
Kelly


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Justin in Miami
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Re: FL Threats [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #27107 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:06 PM

Your concern should be directed to you-know-who in Tallahassee. However, the 2001 FL Bldg. Code is much better than the previous codes in each individual county or region.

I wish the best of luck and safety as Ivan heads toward you (y'all) along the Gulf Coast. Get your preps done now...and then relax..also...if you are with family...i suggest making a big dinner tonight....during Frances (and Andrew in the past) we made a huge meal...even had leftovers...why? well we were bored...and we had to get rid of all the food...plus..it makes you feel a little better about the situation and gets your mind of the doom and gloom of what is about to happen in your area.


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MrSpock
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Re: Water vapor [Re: ddrehman]
      #27108 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:07 PM

I think the NHC has a pretty good handle on this, so I don't think it will be "shoved" rightward more than expected right now. I probably should have worded that differently, but I can't quite describe the way I want. I'll try it this way:

Imagaine me at 160 lbs coming in line with large boulder rolling down a hill. I can push with all my might at a 90 deg. angle, but can only alter its course by 10 degrees, but have expended everything I have trying to "shove" it the other way. Maybe a bowling analogy would have been better.

Edit for the following addition:
Notice that the convection is firing on the left side again in conjunction with the reorganization. It is a little less lop-sided.

Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 14 2004 05:11 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
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Rick on the Boat [Re: MrSpock]
      #27109 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:17 PM

I wonder where old Rick and his boat are off to? Haven't heard from him in a while. I hope he's not in Mobile at this time! :?:

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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LI Phil
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #27110 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:23 PM

rick was on for a time yesterday...he's mooring the boat as best as he can and then he's going inland...far inland...he should be OK, but we can only pray for the boat!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
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Re: FL Threats [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27111 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:28 PM

The new building code is much much better. Charley showed that where I live. Pre new code homes had the severe damage. Newer homes, like the one I am in. Had little to none, unless a tree fell on it. Even then, it was not as bad if it was a pine.


Ivan looks to be on a steady NNW course. Getting back in shape too. Was hoping that would not happen. I hope Ric is off his boat and heading for high ground. His boat and the Alabama battleship may become one if this sucker pays him a visit.

--------------------
Jim


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Thunder
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: LI Phil]
      #27112 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:29 PM

So does anyone see Ivan making a signifcant turn toward the east before landfall? If not, I may call off the dogs on getting some trees taken down tomorrow.


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Rasvar
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: Thunder]
      #27113 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:32 PM

I would not call of the dogs in Tally. You are well within the cone. All I have to say is that a jog like Charley took would be enough to get Tallahassee.

Well, maybe not well within; but close enough that I would not chance it. Ivan is sizeable.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Tue Sep 14 2004 05:34 PM)


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