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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Ivan and the Dreaded Cone [Re: Thunder]
      #27114 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:35 PM

The NHC has done its best with forecasting the trended path of Ivan the Terrible - based on all the variables and on the human component- but anyone within the dreaded cone should assume they are within the target- it does not matter where the eye goes- as everyone in my neck of the woods can recall Frances' trended path..

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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andy1tom
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: Thunder]
      #27115 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM

they are still predicting a turn to the ne but they are saying it is gonna to be later than originally thought. that is why the track is going west. be interesting at 4 to see the updated track. has the 1 come out yet? on central time here.


Edited by andy1tom (Tue Sep 14 2004 01:38 PM)


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Thunder
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: Rasvar]
      #27116 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM

Right on. Better safe than sorry. I need some sunlight in the back anyway.
I hope it stays west, but feel for those who take the brunt of this bugger. Yall screw your wigs on tight and stay safe!


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storm chaser
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: andy1tom]
      #27117 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:42 PM

Quote:

they are still predicting a turn to the ne but they are saying it is gonna to be later than originally thought. that is why the track is going west. be interesting at 4 to see the updated track. has the 1 come out yet? on central time here.





I am still waiting for 1pm too. I guess we are back to the 2pm updates LOL


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LI Phil
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: andy1tom]
      #27118 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:43 PM

>>> has the 1 come out yet? on central time here.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: andy1tom]
      #27119 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 PM

Interesting...they had Ed Rappaport on MSNBC showing Ivan. What I noticed was that as he was talking, he was pointing towards the center of Ivan. It may just be me, but I swear that for right now, Ivan is going due north. Especially after he put the little lines on either side of Ivan, you could see he was gaining latitude (NORTH). The 2pm and 5pm will be interesting. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see another track shift to the west, because everything I see seems to be the opposite of what they're saying. Go figure.

*DISCLAIMER* This is only my eyes, not an official forecast.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: storm chaser]
      #27120 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM

I turned on registered only posting for the talkbacks again. It'll be temporary, and all the other forums don't have this requirement. (I don't like having to do this because I think anyone should be able to post). But if you do register, it requires a valid email address (Which we'll keep private) and cookies enabled for this site.

- Mike

If you aren't registered here you can do so with this link The only requirement is the email address, (mainly to make it difficult for people to create multiple accounts and go crazy).

Any issue you can email me at mike@flhurricane.com (or mike.cornelius@gmaill.com )



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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: storm chaser]
      #27121 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM

Ivan seems to be heading in a more NNW direction the last couple of hours. Will it continue?

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LI Phil
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the 1:00 [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27122 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:46 PM

Not too much change (if any) from the 11:00. Still packing 140 mph winds, pressure 931mb. Still forecasted to his just west of rick & MBF.

This is not going to be pretty...

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: LI Phil]
      #27123 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:48 PM

I was looking at the latest Vort message, saw a 1002 mb or something, and 52 kts.....and then I realized it was Jeanne.

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Colleen A.
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: MrSpock]
      #27124 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:50 PM

Yeah, my heart skipped a couple happy beats until I saw it was Jeanne, too. Drats.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27125 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:54 PM

I'm pretty sure that is just some wobble but interested to see how it adds up at the 5pm adv.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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okiherdu
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Re: Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27126 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM

Quote:

"I have lived in Tampa my entire life, 46 years, and have seen a lot of strange things happen with these storms. With a major Hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico that is still South of my location, the wood stays up!"

Well, I havn't lived here quite as long (only since 1967) but I have been through 4 of these things (no permanent damage with any of them, but certainly enough around me to make me sit up and take notice.......certainly enough to make me agree with the above quote. Speaking for myself, I am far from as knowlegable as most people posting here.......just trying to be practical.

Good luck and prayers for all.


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luki
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27127 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM

can anyone tell me whats going on in Panama City as for evacs,expected weather and such,hubby is working over there right on the bay and im getting very concerned as he isnt telling me weather they are evacuating and what not
Thanks


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LI Phil
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: luki]
      #27128 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:00 PM

>>> can anyone tell me whats going on in Panama City as for evacs,expected weather and such

Coop? JK? A1T?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Storm Cooper
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: luki]
      #27129 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM

Low lying areas, Evac zones 1,2 & 3 at this time.

Let me double check the Zone 3 but I think that is correct.

http://www.pcbaygis.com/

You can check your location if needed there.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 PM)


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doug
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #27130 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM

Ivan right on its projectd path. Ivan digested the dry air pretty well and is re grouping. Unusually dry air over the Florida peninsula however around Tampa, resulting in evaporation of precip. This was not expected.

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doug


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clueless
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: doug]
      #27131 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:04 PM

We here in Florida never expect dry air, but are usually grateful when we see it - right now we have to be mindful of the fact that it is going to come at the gret expense of others - for now we will watch and pray and then turn our sights to Jeanne

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luki
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: LI Phil]
      #27132 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 PM

Quote:

>>> can anyone tell me whats going on in Panama City as for evacs,expected weather and such

Coop? JK? A1T?



nto really sure west bay? i think its hes right off rt 98


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Storm Cooper
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Re: the 1:00 [Re: luki]
      #27133 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:07 PM

Last post I made has that info.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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