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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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JEANNE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27155 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:59 PM Attachment (396 downloads)

>>> I don't want to hear the name JEANNE until absolutely necessary.

Unfortunately, this is now a two front war...Ivan will still making mischief while Jeanne is deciding where she wants to go. See attachment (don't worry Mike, this one's legit)

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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andy1tom
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Re: JEANNE [Re: LI Phil]
      #27157 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:03 PM

the other one was better news for the panhandle

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Keith234
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Re: JEANNE [Re: LI Phil]
      #27158 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:04 PM

Won't Ivan cause the ridge to block Jeanne or slow her down, at least that's what it looks like from the models.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Colleen A.
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Re: Ivan's new path [Re: belleami]
      #27159 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:05 PM

At this point, I would say it's highly unlikely that Ivan's path will have any drastic changes to it, and I don't see anything that would turn him towards the Big Bend.
Keep in mind: your weather is going to be nasty the next couple of days as Ivan makes his way towards Mobile/Pensacola. You're in the worst part of the storm (except for those in the direct path) as the NE side is the most viscious. It doesn't have to make a huge turn to affect your weather. This forecast will keep being tweaked and finetuned until it makes landfall; the closer it gets, the more accurate it'll be.
As for the NNW movement, if this continues, I would really like to know what kind of impact that will have on the path. I know it won't shift it dramatically either way, but wouldn't it change it somewhat as it goes more N than West? I'm so confused at this point that I should just stick to reading books.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Fletch
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Re: JEANNE [Re: Keith234]
      #27160 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:13 PM

Quote:

Won't Ivan cause the ridge to block Jeanne or slow her down, at least that's what it looks like from the models.




Ivan is forecast to greatly slow down or stall over Tenn, Ga or SC. I think the placement of that stall will greatly affect Jeanne. A SC stall could pull Jeanne up towards the Outer Banks. A stall further West may allow a path towards FL

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Colleen A.
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Re: JEANNE [Re: LI Phil]
      #27161 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:14 PM

ACK! Okay, that's Accuweather's forecast. The only good thing I can say about that track is that Ivan's barely out of there, maybe that will have some affect on Jeanne. (I can't believe I just said that name).

Heads up alert: Max Mayfield will be on FNC in a few minutes to talk about you-know-who.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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doug
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Re: Rick on the Boat [Re: FireAng85]
      #27162 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:14 PM

no nothing ominous I am surprised that the rain is evaporating so fast no real moisture in the lower levels to support it...all the rain is off shore about 75 miles
i think it means that Ivan may have reduced its overall size and that's a good thing for Tampa.

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
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Re: JEANNE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27165 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:16 PM

Hate to say it Colleen, but Accuweather (not JB) did better with Ivan than NHC has, so far...Jeanne's window of movement is so big you could drive a truck through it...but it will become a playah by this weekend.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
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Re: Ivan's new path [Re: belleami]
      #27166 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:17 PM

St Marks is still in the watch zone...warnings posted in next advisory, probably to your west.

--------------------
doug


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mbfly
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Re: Ivan's new path [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27167 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:17 PM

Anyone know when the next recon report will come in ?? Still praying for Ivan to weaken !!

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Colleen A.
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Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Fletch]
      #27168 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:17 PM

Sheppard Smith is alluding to "new information on Hurricane Ivan" ...I don't know what the heck he is talking about, except for the fact that he keeps saying "it might be devastating for N.O..." I wish people in the news wouldn't do that, float a teaser out there like that when millions of people are literally hanging on to every word the talking heads (not the mets) are putting out.
I'm gonna smack Shep upside his head. I think it's irresponsible and stupid to do stuff like that.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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St. David
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Re: JEANNE [Re: LI Phil]
      #27169 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:18 PM

storm looks like its gaining so strenght from the satilite images...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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Kent
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Re: JEANNE [Re: LI Phil]
      #27171 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:18 PM

I agree with you LI Phil. Not that I want to. But if you look at the WV loop its kinda scary. Florida is surrounded!

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html


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LI Phil
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27172 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:18 PM

Yeah it is...but it got your attention and now you can't flip the station and you have to sit thru all those ads for which they charge the big bucks...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27175 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:21 PM

Where is that Dynagel plane?!

I am not going to say anything is unlikely at this point. I think the most probable is that there will be a hit from Pensacola to New Orleans. I am still thinking Biloxi myself.

--------------------
Jim


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Colleen A.
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Re: JEANNE [Re: LI Phil]
      #27176 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:22 PM

I didn't mean it as a put-down on Accuweather...they have done a great job with Ivan. I was just hoping that on that track, Jeanne would not have a much warm water to work with as Ivan.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ed in Va
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: LI Phil]
      #27177 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:23 PM

BTW, your attachment on Jeanne was on the Comedy thread. Reposting my question...why is the significance of the arrow...why isn't it in the middle of the cone?

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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andy1tom
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: LI Phil]
      #27178 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:25 PM

let us know what he says

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Rasvar
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27179 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:26 PM

The cone is the possible area. The line is the area they think most likely. IE, they think it is more likely to take the southern path. They do not think it will go south of there. However, it could go further north and east.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Tue Sep 14 2004 07:27 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: LI Phil]
      #27180 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:26 PM

actually phil,,accu weather was saying up to west coast of florida all weekend till late sunday when they moved it west with the NHC. We all kinda thought the west coast of florida had a bad chance at it,, but it would of been stupid to forecast that soo many days out. I do think they need to put up warnings at 5pm to get it out to the public to finalize plans. NO thru Ft walton beach but they will extend it eastward, although I dont expect hurricane force winds in Panama City. There will be TS winds in bands though. Jeane is getting better organized. This could become a weak hurricane by weds afternoon if it stays south of Puerto Rico before landfall in the Dominican Republic. I think then it will get ripped apart but dont know how much cause we dont know exactly where landfall will be or if it skims puerto rico......right now,,its best to say on her that it skims the s coast of Puerto Rico and takes aime on Hispaniola in 60 hours.

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