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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27181 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:27 PM

Um...then something's very f---ed up. When I click the "attachment" the funny one comes up.

Anyway, you pose a fair question...since the cone is so wide, I'm not sure where they think it will go, and why the middle arrow is not midway between the two outer arrows is very strange. Perhaps they feel Jeanne will get picked up by a trof (lets hope so) and never make a US threat, so that's why they trend the right arrow so far north.

You sure about that comedy forum post...maybe someone else can tell me which attachment is in the comedy forum...thanks.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Keith234
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27182 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:28 PM

I think you mean what, anyway they just want to show the area it could possiblily go, hurricanes don't usually stay in the dead center of the cone. So there trying to cover themselves.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Ed in Va
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Keith234]
      #27183 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:33 PM

Maybe so, but I guess I've always thought dead center in the cone was the most likely spot and the cone was just extended out any equal number of mile to the right and left of that point.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Colleen A.
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: andy1tom]
      #27185 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:34 PM

I just watched it....there was ABSOLUTELY NOTHING NEW that Ed Rappaport said that he hasn't said all day. Yeah, he kinda pointed a little more to the east as a possible landfall (not much) but he said it could be off 60-75 miles and that would make a huge difference as far as the affects to the north and east of the ACTUAL landfall point.
Sheppard Smith made it sound like something was gonna swoop down and kick it straight into N.O. I hate when he does that...
FWIW, having been that it's stayed on that NNW/sometimes N course almost all day, I would think we might see a very, tiny, eensy-teensy, wee shift of the track to the..........right?
With my record, it'll go west. I am 0-5 in these path changes. Maybe I should say to the west, and I'd be correct. I'll figure it out before hurricane season is over.

Also....are they talking about a slowdown w/Ivan AFTER landfall or BEFORE? Please tell me it's not before...not that after would be any better. Just didn't catch that slowdown thing. Thanks!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Kent
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: scottsvb]
      #27186 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:35 PM

Well in South Fla we are getting some wind from Ivan. He's actually making it quite nice around here. I'm taking my kids to go fly a kite now. Whats that old saying? "There's no great loss without some small gain" The kids do deserve a break from all the drama.

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doug
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27188 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:39 PM

Ivan wobble to the right again...more north in last 30-45 min.

--------------------
doug


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Thunder
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Kent]
      #27189 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:39 PM

Quote:

Well in South Fla we are getting some wind from Ivan. He's actually making it quite nice around here. I'm taking my kids to go fly a kite now. Whats that old saying? "There's no great loss without some small gain" The kids do deserve a break from all the drama.




Drama, what drama? I don't smell no drama!


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Colleen A.
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The Cone [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27190 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:39 PM

The "cone" is given as a general idea of where it could go, with the middle line being the most likely to get landfall. The margin of error is what is on either side of the cone; the closer it gets to landfall, the smaller that cone will shrink.
Hope that helps.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ed in Va
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Just to right of prediction [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27191 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:43 PM

Phil posted this link earlier which allows you to click on the forecast position and compare it against the actual track. Great site!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

For what it's worth, looks like Ivan will past just to the east of the next projection. Of course, one wobble could bring it back.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LI Phil
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27192 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:44 PM

Make sure you click on "forecast points" though. Also, be interesting to see if it's still a CAT IV at the next point, as it's predicted to be a three...hmmmm

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: LI Phil]
      #27193 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:46 PM

I want to note that recon found 998mb in Jeanne, and estimated ground winds around 60MPH.
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 58KT (66.7mph 107.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 1714Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 52.2KT (60.0mph 96.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 15:12:00 (Tue, 14 Sep 2004 19:12:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 16° 41' N 63° 39' W (16.7°N 63.6°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 60KT (69MPH 111.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 17nm (19.55miles) From Center At Bearing 052°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 57KT (65.55mph 105.6km/h) From 110°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 015nm (17.3 miles) From Center At Bearing 057°
Minimum pressure: 998mb (29.47in) -- Extrapolated
B. 16 DEG 41 MIN N
63 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 052 DEG 17 NM
F. 110 DEG 57 KT
G. 057 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 239 M
J. 25 C/ 328 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 0111A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 58 KT SE QUAD 1714Z.SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


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ShanaTX
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Re: Ivan's new path [Re: schmoo]
      #27194 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:47 PM

As big as Ivan is, and as below sea level, it doesn't have to be a direct hit to do a whole lot of damage there.

'shana


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Thunder
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: LI Phil]
      #27195 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:48 PM

Quote:

Make sure you click on "forecast points" though. Also, be interesting to see if it's still a CAT IV at the next point, as it's predicted to be a three...hmmmm



GOOD STUFF!!!


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LI Phil
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JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: ShanaTX]
      #27196 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:49 PM

I had been derelict in not checking what JB had to say earlier this afternoon...well...it's not good...for Mobile.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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trinibaje
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: MikeC]
      #27197 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM

My thoughts are with those in the Gulf.... i hope Ivan does not take anymore lives. He has devastated the Caribbean... now we here in Miami focus our attention south east to Jeanne.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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MrSpock
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: MikeC]
      #27198 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM

nice work, you beat me too it.....looks like it is going through a rapid burst of deepening, for however long it lasts......I think the last vortex message was only a couple of hours ago.

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lilyv
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: Thunder]
      #27199 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM

And to my admittedly untrained eye, Ivan doesn't look like it's getting weaker. It will be interesting to see if it's a 3 or 4 at the next marker.

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MrSpock
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: lilyv]
      #27200 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:53 PM

the pressure is still in the threshhold for a 4, and based on sat. presentation, it looks like it is getting a little better organized. I doubt it will be a 3 there.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: doug]
      #27201 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:53 PM

Okay, I got the info on the slow-down. It's AFTER it makes LANDFALL, near the border of GA/TN. Not good news for them.
Now, they keep showing this storm (at least on FNC) moving in a NW direction, which is obviously different from what we are seeing (NNW) and hitting in between eastern LA and Mobile.
I have to say that if this NNW/N (at times) trend continues, how can they NOT shift the track to the right at some point in time? Or are they on the line of thinking that it will move back to the NW somewhere down the line?
I realize I'm beating a dead horse here; it's just confusing.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Fletch
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Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: MikeC]
      #27202 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:54 PM

Quote:

I want to note that recon found 998mb in Jeanne, and estimated ground winds around 60MPH.
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 58KT (66.7mph 107.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 1714Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 52.2KT (60.0mph 96.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 15:12:00 (Tue, 14 Sep 2004 19:12:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 16° 41' N 63° 39' W (16.7°N 63.6°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 60KT (69MPH 111.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 17nm (19.55miles) From Center At Bearing 052°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 57KT (65.55mph 105.6km/h) From 110°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 015nm (17.3 miles) From Center At Bearing 057°
Minimum pressure: 998mb (29.47in) -- Extrapolated
B. 16 DEG 41 MIN N
63 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 052 DEG 17 NM
F. 110 DEG 57 KT
G. 057 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 239 M
J. 25 C/ 328 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 0111A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 58 KT SE QUAD 1714Z.SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.





Can we get a storm to struggle this year, or is every storm destined for Cat 3 or higher??

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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