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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27203 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:56 PM

Just saw the TWC update. Dr. Lyons said that the "last few frames" have been almost due north. He also said it was following the edge of that ridge in the western GOM and they expect it to take that turn to the east shortly before landfall. He indicated the cirrus clouds that were moving off towards the east ahead of Ivan.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: Fletch]
      #27204 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:57 PM

Mr. Spock I tend to agree. T#s for 1745 were 5.5/6.5 (a full point spread...hmmm)...looks like it will just miss the mark

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Bioman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27205 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:58 PM

Have you guys seen the buoys? 42003 is showing 26 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 something knots. unbelievable. The wave height has more than doubled from yesterday along with the wind speed. this will be amazing if the buoy survives because its going to be close to Ivans path

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: Ed in Va]
      #27206 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:59 PM

Yeah, you're right. Wobbles. Wiggles. Westerlies.
They're all driving me nuts. Now I guess I could see how they would keep it right where it is...no changes.
I'll check back in at 5.
Life tends to interrupt hurricanes.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: LI Phil]
      #27207 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:00 PM

Gee thanks....... I'm less than thrilled. Looks like I'm going to be riding it out here in west Mobile....... and praying it jogs to the east a little ! I wanted to leave, but hubby used the "for better or worse till death do us part" guilt trip. Windows are boarded up, hurricane stuff is ready, and I'm hoping for a direct hot line to God. I'm hoping to fly to Maryland this weekend; can't stand the thought of 2 or 3 weeks with no electricity !!

Has anyone seen an updated recon report yet ???

Keep us in your prayers y'all !!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Bioman]
      #27208 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM

Quote:

Have you guys seen the buoys? 42003 is showing 26 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 something knots. unbelievable. The wave height has more than doubled from yesterday along with the wind speed. this will be amazing if the buoy survives because its going to be close to Ivans path




This graph from there shows it quite well... (The buoy is linked in the Event Related links in the main article)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42003&uom=E


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GENIE
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Just to right of prediction [Re: MrSpock]
      #27209 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM

25.6 wave height at bouy 42003. pressure falling rapidly. Wind gust to 60kts. In case some have not checked lately.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: mbfly]
      #27210 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM

You may want to rethink that decision...unless you're about 25 miles inland and your house is up to code! Godspeed!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: mbfly]
      #27211 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM

Speaking of buoy obs in the GOM. Here is the page from the NDBC with sites near where Ivan will pass.

NDBC Sites

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Please let that be a jog [Re: MikeC]
      #27212 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:04 PM

Tell that thing to quit threatening to turn further right and tell it to go away.... and the last few frames better be a jog and not a trend or once again the NHC is going to be horrifyingly off

Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Ivan's Slowdown [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27213 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:08 PM

Colleen, I don't have cable, and I feel like I'm watching the weather channel. Thanks for your posts! I saw enuf of them when I was up in Atlanta. BTW, I hope no one is traveling through ATL on Friday!
Well, we're definitely within the 48-hr window for anyone from NO to PCB. I think NHC still has a good handle on Ivan - CAT 3, Thursday morning, around Biloxi. Yet, I'm still wondering if Ivan will clear 88 W with strength of shear and trof to the W? Any thoughts?

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Just checking in... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27214 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM

I've got most everything done that I'm going to do. That consisted of bringing in about 10 bikes, some toys, scooters, balls, hoses and such. I'd estimate that 75-80% of my neighborhood has evacuated. I haven't seen anything taken this seriously since Georges, so obviously in Old Metairie, the folks did what the felt they needed to. I have a theory (that I think holds) that whenever there is a recent & devastating storm, people think twice about staying. Frances (flooding) then the mass evacuation for Georges, Alex/Charley/Frances and Ivan. I'm pretty excited about Ivan. I don't know what it has in store for me, but I'm ready for the action. Today's been kind of weird. It's a mixed sky right now with a nice breeze around 12-15 gusting to 18-20 from time to time - mostly out of the E and ENE. The temperature is in the mid 80's. That really shows how big Ivan is. Often when a compact storm is 250 miles away, the weather can be hot and still (calm before the storm stuff). But that's not the feel today. My expectations are a cross between what New Orleans got from Florence (88 I think), Andrew (92) and Georges (98). Put together, that's probably a few inches of rain (more with a landfall closer to me), some sustained winds in the 30's and 40's with some gusts into the 50's and 60's, blown transformers, downed limbs and scattered power and cable outages - you know, a good beer drinking partying kind of storm. I could be wrong (and I hope I'm not, heh) but I'm looking forward to the ride. The traffic has been horrendous in the city as everyone hit the highways this morning. My kids are en route to Memphis, and my wife is sleeping and should be heading up there later this evening after she gets some sleep. I've gotten a few "Woooo" calls from old hurricane buddies who wanted to know my excitement level amidst all the freaking going on. I guess that means people to party with over the next few days

The last several frames show alternating N and NNW movements - I'd guess the storm was averaging 340ish in the short term after a westerly jog this morning. Without doing the math, Ivan seems to be stair-stepping around 320-330 (NN+W essentially) . Prayers and well wishes to everyone with property, peeps, ties or whatever from lower Plaquemines Parish, LA to Panama City. Hopefully the just west of Mobile scenario doesn't pan out. That's similar to our doomsday of a storm riding toward the WNW south of the city (as JB noted today - the one that makes N.O. the Gulf via Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borne. We'll see that again someday, but not this time.

A JB quick note on Jeanne. In his backing pattern theory, Jeanne (if she encouters a ridge building in behind Ivan as some of the models are now alluding to) becomes a potential player for the Western Gulf by 3-6 degrees west of Ivan's landfall. That theory requires her to wait for the Ivan mess to clear and then head on W (he had it between FL and Cuba, but that was just a telestrator drawing and wasn't emphasized as much as the idea that it could mirror the Isidore-Lili 1-2 Gulf Cat 4's from 2002 based on uncannily similar water temperature profiles.

I'll check in from time to time. Good luck to all and a shout out to Frank P. My bet is by the time he's back online, he rates in the Top 3 as measured by the seawall and Beach Blvd.

Woohoo!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: GENIE]
      #27215 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM

First, the trough that was near Memphis the other day, is lifting out nicely, but it almost seems as if a small piece broke off into the Gulf, which was responsible for the dry air, and the fact that it never curved back to the NW.

Second, a strong upper level disturbance just crossed through Salt Lake City, and a strong trough is moving into the Rockies. This will be the next system to help draw up the storm I believe.
There is also strong jet energy rounding the base of that trough.
I can't rule out the possibilty it curls back towards the NW a little due to the piece of energy in the Gulf, but I don't think it will be a major move. The arguement against that is that it appears to be moving north on the last few frames, which wouldn't be expected in this scenario. The next trough seems to be coming in pretty quickly as well.

I am concerned about post-landfall also, as it may get stuck in the Appalachians, and a strong SE upslope flow is not needed in the already-flood-ravaged areas. The GFS puts out almost 4" of rain where I am in NJ, and I won't be close to it.

I hope this isn't another Allison, which was not much of a storm, but got stuck of Ga. and wreaked all kinds of flooding havoc. It also got stuck.


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lilyv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27216 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:17 PM

I can verify Salt lake had a front pass through- it's 64 degrees here now!

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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Please let that be a jog [Re: Bloodstar]
      #27217 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:18 PM

Quote:

Tell that thing to quit threatening to turn further right and tell it to go away.... and the last few frames better be a jog and not a trend or once again the NHC is going to be horrifyingly off

Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0






Mark,
I was thinking the same thing............

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... [Re: lilyv]
      #27218 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

This will show what you felt.......


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: LI Phil]
      #27219 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM

Quote:

You may want to rethink that decision...unless you're about 25 miles inland and your house is up to code! Godspeed!




I'm a little more than 30 miles north of Dauphin Island. (Well north of I-10, near Mobile Airport) The house (brick) withstood Frederic and others since, but the three huge oak trees surrounding my house weren't quite so large then ! No chance of flooding here, so I'm just praying for the trees to stay up and the roof to stay down. My son and his family were smart enough to be on their way to Montgomery this afternoon, and then Tennessee in the morning.

I'll try to keep y'all posted (and I'm sure rickNOTonaboat will as well !) tomorrow when things start getting ugly. I have about 4 hours of battery back up for the 'puter, but not sure how long the cable modem will be working though.

PLEASE keep the sight up guys -- I'm countin' on ya !!


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: LI Phil]
      #27220 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM

Here's a link to the whole gulf waves. Very interesting the waves around the eye

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Please let that be a jog [Re: FireAng85]
      #27221 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM

Please note, that reference to the NHC being horrifyingly off was not an effort to disparage their efforts, they're doing their best, and they're doing a heck of a lot better than anyone else. it's just that this storm has been an unpredictable storm, even for a hurricane. And I'm just a bit fearful that the chaos of the atmosphere won't be properly understood in this case and the NHC will miss predict with... horrifying consequences....

I think the NHC rocks, just I also realize they're not perfect
Mark

Go Falcons... And Take the Braves with you! (Old Falcons Cheer)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon [Re: mbfly]
      #27222 - Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM

MBFly...

Check your PMs (note that that is a SMALL s)...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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