sullynole
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Did anyone read my post above? What would 147kt Flt level wind equal to?
CAT 5?
approx. 152 mph @ surface
-------------------- John
Edited by sullynole (Tue Sep 14 2004 08:53 PM)
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Loc: Leesburg, FL
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170 at flight level...however, that speed will not propogate down to the surface...
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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but, I think the surface winds are 90% of that.....if I have the right level.
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> LI Phil you are definitely an angel of some sort put here to help in numerous ways..............Namaste as my tradition says
You might consider registering...then I could PM you if you need it.
Listen, I appreciate the sentiments, but I no angel. I am however very passionate about the weather and I'll try my best to help anyone on this site out, should they need it. I'm not a computer guru (that's Mike) nor a met (that's many), but I do care an immense amount about the weather and those affected by it...looking for a storm surge map...I'll try to find it...need a buoy report...same deal.
I stumbled onto this site (like I'm sure many of us did) in 1996 or 1997, and had been a passionate lurker until about a year ago, when Isabel threatened the entire east coast.
Every since then, I've been posting and have learned more in a year than I probably could have by going for a met degree (well, maybe that's a stretch). Even though I didn't post, I knew all the regulars and have since struck up many "internet" friendships.
Anyone who has ever PMed me knows I'm a little different "off the air" than on, but I always try to help. If I piss someone off, they let me know about and I work to be that much better...
I just want everyone to know how much I appreciate all your kind words and these are trying times....do not hesitate to let me know your feelings or make requests for info you may be too busy to search for...I'll make every effort to either get that info or defer to the experts if it's a true meterological question.
NOW, BACK TO !
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Don't they round up on the winds? If so that would be 1mph from Cat. 5 again.
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gonyen
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
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1 mph = .8689755962687 kts an hour
1 knot = 1.15078030303 mph
gonyen
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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How does the figure the pressure 930 and it's a CAT 5 and 155 mph, sometimes they go by the pressure and sometimes the windspeed, weird.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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I just wanted all those in harm's way to know I am sending prayers for their safety and the the strength of spirit to see them thru. 'Thunder' and 'Redbird' - Wakantanka ni'ci un.
-------------------- "...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
Edited by Sadie (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:12 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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992
URNT12 KNHC 142350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2319Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
86 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2491 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 354 DEG 116 KT
G. 258 DEG 19 NM
H. 928 MB
I. 13 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 2992 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C43
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A OB 25
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z
Yes, but I was going off of this no. I didn't see the higher one.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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This is the National Buoy Data Center website: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=24.2N&lon1=86.6W&dist=350&time=3
As to new location data comes in you can manually change the coordinates to represent more acurate location of the storm relative to the buoys/moorings.
-------------------- Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Thanks I'm adding that to my favorites
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I see from the posts it's "killing" people to get more current information. In about 6 to 12 hours, you will be able to use New Orleans-Slidell Doppler Radar and Mobile to lock the center in shortly.
Does anyone have a list of available links that supply the wind data from the radar sites or is it available? And links other than base reflective and composite and velocity. Most of these radars take varying degrees of elevation and also check the winds at those levels, but darn if I can find those links! Thanks!
-------------------- Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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alliecat
Unregistered
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I LIVE IN SOUTHEAST GA. BROUGHT US SOME SERIOUS WEATHER. MUCH MORE THAN WE EXPECTED. ONLY 40-45 GUSTS BUT STILL SCAREY. ANY ONE HAVE ANY IDEAS OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM ? WE ARE THINKING WE WILL NOT GET MUCH OFF OF THIS STORM. ARE WE WISHFULL THINKING?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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First, let's look at Jeanne (Ivan in the next post). I've been eating crow here at with this one -- I didn't figure this would have a shot, but it's defied my predictions. That said, it's got some landmasses in its way, including the Dominican. It is looking rather well organized tonight and might become a hurricane in the next day or so if it can miss Puerto Rico and the Dominican.
Track -- unless a trough well to the north of Bermuda continues to dive, it won't pick up Jeanne. All it may do is weaken the steering currents a bit, but that's not even a given. In the short term, Jeanne should continue moving just north of due west around the subtropical ridge. On this course, it might just nick the SW tip of Puerto Rico (thanks ShaggyDude!) and will likely pass over the island of Hispaniola, if only on the north side.
The ultimate track will be the key to the storm's survival, as though I don't see shear increasing too much, the favorable upper-level diffluence will likely weaken just a tad and the wind field with the system is small and tight. If it gets disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, it might sound a death knell for this storm -- or at least substantially weaken it -- which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Afterward, the storm should continue moving in a general WNW fashion to the central Bahamas in about 4-5 days, where it should be near the end of the subtropical ridge. Problem is, there really won't be a trough to pick it up. looks to stall out over the central Applachians and create sort of a blocking effect -- a Rex block -- where it sits below a high and disrupts the overall steering flow. Troughs can lift up and around the block, but Jeanne will be too far south in all likelihood to feel these effects. A slow, gradual WNW movement beyond 4-5 days can be expected, not unlike .
The saving grace for Florida might be , as ultimately it should begin to move out to sea in 6-7 days. The trough it leaves behind in its wake as it transitions into an system (assuming, of course, it doesn't completely die out over the mountains) might be enough to swing and pick up Jeanne, sending it to the north. With the slow forward motion expected at that time, it could be enough to spare the entire United States. However, it is way too early to make that call and right now, at 6/7 days out, it's 50/50 for either scenario. People from Cape Hatteras south to Key West need to watch this one.
Intensity should be held somewhat in check by the small wind field interacting with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas, though the storm should reach hurricane intensity in the next day or so before then. It will have a chance at regaining some strength after leaving Hispaniola, but as it moves further into the Bahamas, cold upwelling from combined with shallow waters (not as much energy) should keep intensification in check.
As an aside, the storms we have had near shore this year should help to keep anything else on the horizon from affecting the mainland with as much force just due to coastal upwelling of shallow waters, at least in the next few weeks. I don't want to sound the bell for the season after and Jeanne for the U.S., but the peak is behind us and there is only so many storms that the basin can handle in the same location. The chances after these storms of a significant U.S. impact dwindle pretty greatly -- but do *not* go away -- once they get out of the way. That doesn't diminish in any way what they have done, however.
1 day position: along the southern coast of Puerto Rico near 18.5°N and 66-66.5°W, 65-70kt hurricane
3 day position: just north of Hispaniola near 20°N 71°W 50-55kt tropical storm
5 day position: central Bahamas near 23°N 75°W 60kt tropical storm.
This isn't too far off of the position and intensity, except a bit further south and a tad slower at days 4 and 5 and weaker due to interaction with landmasses.
Ivan coming up...
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by Clark (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:24 PM)
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Well, appears to be noticeably weaker today than in past, and has the usual stairstep motion, though, it resembles a sort of slinky motion... upwards.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
I think in the second paragraph, Clark was refering to Jeanne to nick the SW tip of Puerto Rico, and not Cuba. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Edited by ShaggyDude (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:20 PM)
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
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Buoy 42003 now up to sustained winds of 59 mph. Wave height is 36.1 feet
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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I believe that we are on the threshhold of an unfortunate historical event with soon to be bearing down somewhere from N.O towards P.C.B. MY call on landfall looking at the models, current trajectory, and a possible slight NNE turn before landfall, i'm thinking Mobile bay to Pensacola . This hurricane will impact a huge area of the coast then inland hurricane force winds will move well inland in Alabama and Georgia. Then of course the possibility later of the storm stalling in the southern Applachian mountains and creating a dangerous flooding event.
The only thing we can hope for at this point is rapid weakening before landfall and/or landfall at the least populated area along that coast inorder to minimize loss of life and damage.
Here on the SE coast of Florida, we are watching Jeanne as we are "back in the cone" for the 5 day forecast. This has already been a historic hurricane season and it's not over yet.
TG
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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MBFLY...I wish you luck...i may have missed this but where are you in relation to storm surge zones/beach areas? If you are not in a storm surge zone then all you have to worry about is wind. I imagine you know what you are doing.
I am sure I am speaking to the choir on this one...but, if this storm is heading for your area...i mean you will get the eye wall....and you have plywood on your windows...you should also have a safe room away from those windows with blankets and maybe a mattress....plywood does not always work and can very easily be sucked off your windows when winds go over 140+ i.e., Hurricane Andrew...see link:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/shutters/index2.html
Btw, it is rather gusty here in SE FL tonight...hmm...good luck up there everyone.
"Jeanne, Jeanne, go away, come back another day!!" Clark can't wait for your analysis on this one....
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Wow you make amazing posts Clark, how do you type them so fast? Do you think the "flip" will occur soon?
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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In southeast Georgia, you should be relatively far away from the impacts of the storm. Winds might kick up a little bit, depending where in SE Georgia you are, but I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain or wind from this system. A couple of inches of rain -- mainly Friday & onward after the storm has made landfall -- and winds perhaps up to 20mph are a good bet.
Folks in SW Georgia, however, are in for winds in the 40-60mph range along with heavy rainfall. This is going to be a serious flooding event up and down the US 27/I-65 corridor, I'm afraid.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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