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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Hookd
Unregistered




Re: GO NOW! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #27406 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 PM

Been lurking for days.. first post. Will probably register for the next one

I suggest taking back roads like US highways instead of interstates if you are evacuating. I left for Frances and tried the Turnpike - I75 way. It took about 4hrs to go 40 miles. The gas lines were 30 cars long the turnpike. We were going about 10-15mph. I got off of 75 and took a two lane highway north. I was able to do 60mph and barely saw anyone. There was also gas at every station I passed with out lines.

Take care of yourselves.


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MrSpock
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Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions [Re: Frank P]
      #27407 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:39 PM

Good luck and Godspeed in whatever you decide. If you wait until 6 AM, you will have the benefit of 2 more model runs. It is too close to call as far as I am concerned. Discretion is the better part of valor. Just be safe, no matter what you decide.

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: I need to vent a little.... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27408 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:39 PM

>>> My half human side can be a real pain sometimes.

As Chief Science Officer, I commend your logic...(Captain Kirk...Stardate unknown)

Once again, listen to these guys...they know their s--t. This is going to be very bad and I can only hope all in it's way are listening...look what Ivan has already done in his path...

Enuf from me...pay attenion to those who know more than I do...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: I need to vent a little.... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27409 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 PM

Hype can be a very, very bad thing. Telling people to be prepared and that the chance for some rainfall is there, but don't go bonkers...and that goes for both underdoing and overdoing it as well. Make sure people know what they need to know and make sure they are prepared -- overprepared if anything -- but not needlessly scare the general public. People read these statements and take them as doomsday scenarios, whether intended as such or not. Uncertainty is high out to 4-5 days, meaning any forecast should be tempered yet still highlight that there might be a chance of increased rainfall (not saying there will be 5-10" mind you, but the chance for increased rains). This isn't directed at anyone, but is just moreso a rant of my own to follow up on yours.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Mongo
Registered User


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Loc: Atlanta
Shades of Opal... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27410 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:42 PM

In 1995 Opal ran through the Smoky Mountain area and produced very damaging floods. Most of the roads around Cades Cove were completely washed out, as were many other mountain roads. If I recall, Opal was moving along at about 20 mph (it was still a hurricane when it came through Atlanta in the middle of the night) and still caused massive flooding. Should Ivan stall in that area as it is predicted to, I would imagine the floods in the mountains could be much worse than what happened with Opal.

Good luck to all in the path of this storm.

Brian


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions [Re: Frank P]
      #27411 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:42 PM

Frank -- I don't think the landfall will be west of Pascagoula, but the eye is so large and the wind field so strong and expansive you might want to strongly consider evacuating anyway. Take into account where the shelters are and how sturdy your place is, but do consider leaving. You may have seen worse nearby, but it's best not to leave things to chance as much as possible.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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MrSpock
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Re: I need to vent a little.... [Re: Clark]
      #27412 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:48 PM

I agree. I would not hype that forecast. I just don't think he should have said there will be no effect either. He should have left it alone for a while longer.
The NWS has the right idea-no enhanced wording, but mention of RW and TRW's. The DC and PHL offices handled this much better.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: GO NOW! [Re: Hookd]
      #27413 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:48 PM

I will reiterate what HookD said as well. U.S. roads, once upon a time, were the backbone of our automotive society as well as the roads that kept the nation moving economically and industrially. They may not be able to handle as many cars as an interstate, but are often far less traveled and can provide a nice alternative in a bad situation...they are often far more scenic than the interstate yet allow you to get out faster to a safer location than a clogged interstate will.

Routes heading north out of the Gulf coast include U.S. 45, U.S. 43 (Alabama), U.S. 31, U.S. 29, U.S. 231, U.S. 331 (last four Florida-->Alabama), U.S. 49, U.S. 51 (last two Mississippi), and U.S. 61/65 (Louisiana). Head east or west just a bit on U.S. 98 or U.S. 90 (or, in portions of the coastal area, U.S. 84) to get to one of these roads if not nearby.

Also consider state roads in larger locales, but always carry a map. One of the smartest purchases you can make is the $5 Rand McNally atlas at Wal-Mart. It's not only handy in times like this, but in planning road trips as well. Plus, you can't beat the price. By taking U.S./state highways, you'll not only reduce the stress and time to evacuate for yourself, but for others who do stick to the interstates as well.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Kent
Weather Guru


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Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions [Re: Frank P]
      #27414 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 PM

I just read the link that someone posted about Camille. My Gosh I would leave for sure! Did anyone see the pictures in that link? Hotels were literally swept clean to the foundations! Please don't take any unnecessary chances...especially if you have children. They don't have a choice. Whoever posted that link really made a good case for evacuating. Here is the link again:
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

Godspeed my neighbors to the Northwest.


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belleami
Weather Watcher


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Re: First Ivan Wind Field map [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #27415 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 PM

Skeetobite said,
Quote:

Sorry. That was a damn big post...




Well, it's a damn big storm

Susie

--------------------
hang on!


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: I need to vent a little.... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27416 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 PM

Made a reply but it got eaten...now the 11:00 is out and I don't think anymore can be said that hasn't been said.

He is STILL at 140mph...might get stronger.

Frank...GO!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


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New Advisory is Out - Pressure Rising [Re: Kent]
      #27417 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 PM

New Advisory is available on all the sites.

Sorry for the previous long post, StormHound

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida

Edited by Kdubs (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:07 PM)


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Sorry - Here's the discussion too *DELETED* [Re: Kdubs]
      #27418 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 PM

Post deleted by Kdubs

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions [Re: Kent]
      #27419 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:55 PM

The track is alot alike,can history repeat?

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions [Re: Frank P]
      #27420 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:58 PM

Frank..I remember where you live in previous posts. If I were in your situation...and I had family with me...I would go to the business b/c of the family. I don't think everyone understands the significance of being on the left side of the storm on the coast and lower storm surge. I know my family would look at the water....look at the TV and the storm coming our way....and then look at me and say "are you crazy?"

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StormHound
Weather Guru


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Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too [Re: Kdubs]
      #27421 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:59 PM

Guys, please don't post the advisories or discussions. We all know where to find them. A little excerpt with some commentary is ok, but the whole advisory just sucks up reading space.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too [Re: StormHound]
      #27423 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:01 PM

SH,

agreed at this point we know they're available virtually everywhere, including about 7 links already on this site.

You got any thoughts at this point...and what's it like in Orlando?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
My thoughts for the day [Re: Kdubs]
      #27424 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 PM

Is there anyone familiar with New Orleans enough to tell what the situation is there? Evacuations, sea level, hurricane levies, etc?

Also, Phil, anyway you could post SLOSH maps for NoLa, Biloxi, Movile, Pensacola?

The current buoy readings are also rather amazing. Buoy 42003 hasn't reported data in over 2 hours. Buoy GDIL1 (near New Orleans) has gusts up to 23 kts. Buoy SGOF1 (near Apalachicola, FL) has gusts up to 32 kts.

When I first started seriously watching Ivan, I was so tired from going through the eye of Charley and the NE side of Frances. When it passed over Grenada, I told me family that I felt it would go to New Orleans. I was about to post that thought on this site when the track changed to bring the eye over Orlando, so I decided to keep my opinion to myself. However, it appears that the hunch I had a week ago was more than just a hunch. Having gone through Charley as a Cat 2, I understand what it feels like. I can only imagine what Port Charlotte, Sanibel Island, Fort Myers, Punta Gorda and all the other towns on the SWFL coast went through before Charley made it to S Orlando. Please heed the advice of the authorities. If you need convincing, look at the damage photos from Sanibel and Port Charlotte. Read the reports of people who had to hold their doors in their place because their storm shutters were ripped off. Read about the people in Jamaica who had to move from one shelter to the next in the brunt of the storm because their shelter blew away from around them. We lose too many people every year as it is to these monster freight trains that we like to call hurricanes. There is nothing wimpy about evacuating. You will not be accused of being a "girlie man."

My prayers are with all of you in the storms path and swath. Don't underestimate the power of the storm, but also don't underestimate the power of the One who controls it all.

God Bless, Kyle

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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Bioman
Weather Watcher


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Re: My thoughts for the day [Re: Kdubs]
      #27425 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:06 PM

looks like we lost buoy 42003. between the 36 foot waves and 75 mph wind i think its done

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Elaine H
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Re: My thoughts for the day [Re: Kdubs]
      #27426 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:06 PM

Well many hours to go...all in the path....get in a safe place. Good luck and good night.

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