Robin
Unregistered
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I've been lurking around here for a couple of days now...I find the weather fascinating, and I'm learning so much from this site!
I don't want to interrupt the conversation, but I wanted to add my well-wishes and prayers for all in the path of this storm. Godspeed.
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J Mark
Unregistered
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To: MBFly:
I know people are urging you out, but I'm quite familular with your area there at Perdido Key on the Alabama/Florida border. (near the FloraBama for you Buffett fans). I was there during Fredrick in 1979. We had a brick 2-story beach house at Orange Beach right on the beach (and it's still there now encircled with condos). We boarded up with plywood sheets that were lagbolted to the brick. We lost some asphalt shingles but that was about it. Strangely, the entire interior was covered with so much sand you had to sweep it up in buckets -- so you know we took a pounding. Interestingly, the homes on the lagoon side (around by Bear Point where I assume that you are) stood up pretty well -- again, it depended on how the house was constructed. If wind blew out the garage door or patio door then the roof usually lifted off. But those that managed to keep the wind out of the house faired pretty well.
I live in Savannah now and was the only one in my community not to evacuate when Hurricane Floyd came through (I'm not one of those crazy people who simply won't leave, but I work for an electric co-op and we stay until it's obviously a imament danger and then we go to a shelter we have identified). Anyway, like you, I watched as everyone else left and endured 10 hour drives to Atlanta. However, the next morning everybody had cleared out and, if I had choosen to leave, it would have been an easy drive to anywhere -- the roads were empty except for emergency vehicles. So, you might reconsider leaving tomorrow after the masses have already evacuated -- You may not find a hotel but, with enough gas (and you should take an extra can) you can get to a safe place.
Best wishes -- that's a pretty place where you live. I always enjoy coming back.
Mark
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I want to reiterate what Phil has been posting in this thread and others today and remind everyone to not underestimate this storm.
The concern expressed is valid -- this storm is a monster that will make landfall as a major hurricane, likely somewhere between 125-145mph. Just because this storm is not a category 5 does not mean that it will not affect many lives. Category 3 and 4 storms can and do cause great amounts of damage. has already changed countless lives in the Caribbean forever -- and sadly taken over 60 of them in Grenada, Jamaica, and Cuba alone.
The wind field on this storm is so large and the size and forward motion of it such that flooding is a major concern that this storm is not one to take lightly. Better to be overprepared than underprepared -- better safe than sorry -- and you never know what one burst of convection or one wobble in the track could do. This storm is not a point; while areas near the eye will likely be devestated, so too will many areas 100+ miles on both sides of the eye. Places well inland are going to see their property ruined from high waters; places along the shore are going to see storm surge ruin their beaches and affect their property as well.
If the wind field holds true, as shown in 's graphics, many, many people are going to be feeling high winds with this storm. While the majority of you understand how serious this situation is, I'm just trying to reach the minority who may feel that the concern is unwarranted. Hype in this case is unwarranted -- as SNONUT said in his latest post, this isn't going to put New Orleans underwater -- but concern and preparation is not.
This storm is forecast to make landfall in a relatively populous area with an intensity not seen in the region for many years. The damage seen from is going to be spread out and multiplied over a much larger area if the intensity holds -- as it is projected to do -- while the inland concerns are only going to exacerbate what has already happened as a result of and Gaston.
Take heed of all warnings out there and be prepared. This storm isn't one to mess with.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Yikes.  That pretty much puts the eye of directly over my house in west Mobile near the airport. I am north of I-10, about 25-30 miles from Dauphin Island / GOM and about 12 miles west of Mobile Bay (at the highest part of Mobile) I'm well away from any flood zones, so the main concern is the wind, my house, and trees.
I'll have to admit............. your map is pretty sobering though !! Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't wind up on the front page of the Mobile Register !
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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
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Clyde...I just took a stroll outside and noted the outer bands east of Tampa and was surprised at how breezy it is considering how far from the path we are...
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> I'll have to admit............. your map is pretty sobering though !! Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't wind up on the front page of the Mobile Register !
mbf,
I wouldn't surprise me if this isn't the lead story in the NEW YORK TIMES when all is said and done...the mobile register probably won't be putting out an edition on Friday...
Listen to CLARK if you won't listen to me...this is deadly...top story here (1,500 miles away) so you know it means business.
I hope and pray for everyone (in a VERY LARGE SWATH) about to face ...godspeed (again)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ravsar -- perhaps, but not to any large extent. Any backing up to the west of 's remnant circulation would likely result in a slightly more westward motion of Jeanne, as it would be the same ridge controlling the motion of both systems. However, ultimately, I expect to clear out and recurve...it just may do it in a weird fashion.
The models aren't totally incorrect with a wobbly/erratic motion once inland, but I don't think it will result in any significant motion westward...and probably not at all back southward...and will only be short-lived. The storm essentially stalling is more likely than not, however, and inland flooding is going to be a huge concern, both for the areas that receive a lot of rain from this storm as well as regions further to the south and east as flooded rivers filter down towards the Atlantic and Gulf.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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OZ IN FL
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Check out the models.......somethings not right on these with respect to what happens after land fall.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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FRANK AND STEVE....... BE SAFE , ...RAD
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The Mobile NWS office, in their latest public statement on the storm, puts it best for everyone in the projected path of this storm:
"...THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE MAY EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF HURRICANE FREDERIC... "
Frederic killed one person and resulted in $2.5 billion dollars worth of damage. The Dauphin Island area was completely devestated by the storm. And now, nearly twenty-five years later, with a much greater population and property values, a storm of similar magnitude is expected to hit the same region.
This one statement says it all:
"IF THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF WEST BEACH AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA NEAR THE 3 MILE MARKER IN BALDWIN COUNTY. IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA PENSACOLA BEACH WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF NAVARRE BEACH IN SANTA ROSA AND HIGHWAY 98 BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH AND DESTIN IN OKALOOSA COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WITH HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THOSE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE FREDERIC IN 1979...WHICH IS THE BENCHMARK STORM FOR THE MOBILE AREA AND COULD BE NEAR Opal'S LEVELS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IS ACCURATE...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER DAUPHIN ISLAND AND OVER THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA...WITH SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING OVER GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. SIGNIFICANT BUT LESSER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. "
Heed the warnings everyone and stay safe. If you are in the Mobile/Pensacola area right now -- including points 50 miles east and west -- please have all of your preparations completed as soon as possible and get to a shelter or other safe place (including locations such as Arkansas, Texas, and further west). Hotels in Louisiana are hard to come by -- if not completely booked -- meaning the roads are going to be clogged for many miles. The sooner you can get out, the better. Play it safe with this one -- I cannot emphasize that enough.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OZ,
they might not be depicting it well graphically, but they are showing the "stalling" of ...as I said earlier, this is not just one for the GOMers, but one for the ages...might approach Camille/Allison (2001) flooding...HORRIBLE...anyone from New Orleans to Maine needs to be watching this one carefully!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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MBFLY...sounds like you will be ok since you are not in a storm surge zone...i thought you were on the beach or a barrier island. I imagine you and all the folks in Mobile/Pensacola area are in for a ride like no other. Just remember to prepare a safe room just in case. There are plenty of links on the net about preparing a safe room in houses.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Check out CNNs website. Must have real player to view. Titled "Doomsday View". Would make me want to leave New Orleans area.
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OZ IN FL
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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Phil,
Phew!! for a minute there I thought they were thinking it would chuck a u'ey. Would not have been pretty.
Mind your heads and prayers for all.
Watched what cyclone Tracey did back home and these are nothing to mess with.
RJ
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Sorry for the OT post, but I just saw a weather forecast on TV I couldn't believe.
First, in NJ, we are going to get off easy compared to everyone else.
I don't know if this guy (never saw him before) was a met, or a map reader (term used by my friends who read maps on , but never said anything else), but made statements I feel he shouldn't have made.
Our situation is this....There is a cold front approaching that is expected to stall near my area. He stated that that would save us from any impact from . If you throw a ton of moisture with PWATS probably well over 2 inches on top of a frontal boundary with an onshore flow, that spells a good chance of heavy rain. The gives us (CPC also) 4 or 5 inches through 5 days. That'll be 1/4 what other areas get, but that is not my point.
I have seen tropical systems interact with frontal boundaries up here. I think it was Floyd that dumped 4.00" on me, but over 12" in N.E. Md. The front was right over them.
He probably noticed that POPS out that far are only 50% not understanding that in that time range, higher POPS are not given.
He may well end up being right. But it is illogical and maybe irresponsible to say something like that this far out, especially when the and forecast right now says otherwise.
If WB is going to have a weatherman.......I can't even finish that thought.
Sorry for the rant, and OT, but it did help. My half human side can be a real pain sometimes.
Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 PM)
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J Mark
Unregistered
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To: lcdrgas
I know people are urging you out, but I'm quite familular with your area there at Perdido Key on the Alabama/Florida border. (near the FloraBama for you Buffett fans). I was there during Fredrick in 1979. We had a brick 2-story beach house at Orange Beach right on the beach (and it's still there now encircled with condos). We boarded up with plywood sheets that were lagbolted to the brick. We lost some asphalt shingles but that was about it. Strangely, the entire interior was covered with so much sand you had to sweep it up in buckets -- so you know we took a pounding. Interestingly, the homes on the lagoon side (around by Bear Point where I assume that you are) stood up pretty well -- again, it depended on how the house was constructed. If wind blew out the garage door or patio door then the roof usually lifted off. But those that managed to keep the wind out of the house faired pretty well.
I live in Savannah now and was the only one in my community not to evacuate when Hurricane Floyd came through (I'm not one of those crazy people who simply won't leave, but I work for an electric co-op and we stay until it's obviously a imament danger and then we go to a shelter we have identified). Anyway, like you, I watched as everyone else left and endured 10 hour drives to Atlanta. However, the next morning everybody had cleared out and, if I had choosen to leave, it would have been an easy drive to anywhere -- the roads were empty except for emergency vehicles. So, you might reconsider leaving tomorrow after the masses have already evacuated -- You may not find a hotel but, with enough gas (and you should take an extra can) you can get to a safe place.
Best wishes -- that's a pretty place where you live. I always enjoy coming back.
Mark
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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well I finally completed my hurricane preps.. .took only about 10 hours.... for the first time in my life I am seriously considering evacuating.... Camille, Fredrick, Elena, Georges... rode em out out.... this is such a tough decision for me....
I will make my decision before 6 am.... anyone's input on forecast track and intensity would be a great aid to me in this decision process.... you guys provide valuable information on this board and I appreciate it...
I'm not going to go if I am really confident of a Mobile to east hit... I have not been paying attention to the actual weather the last 10 hours due to the house preps..... If it is going to hit between Pascagoula and Mobile I am going more inland to a friends business building...
However, if I have any doubt as to where this thing is going, ie, a hit west of Pascagoula, then as much as I hate it, we will evacuate, due to pressure from kids and other relatives... we have friends in Jackson Ms who have offer us their guest house to ride out the storm...
although I'm 20 feet above sea level on the beach, the thought of unobstructed 140+ winds coming right off the beach with accompanying tidal surge makes me want to puke...
gotta run for a minute but will be monitoring the situation all night....
Frank P
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
>>> I'll have to admit............. your map is pretty sobering though !! Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't wind up on the front page of the Mobile Register !
mbf,
I wouldn't surprise me if this isn't the lead story in the NEW YORK TIMES when all is said and done...the mobile register probably won't be putting out an edition on Friday...
Listen to CLARK if you won't listen to me...this is deadly...top story here (1,500 miles away) so you know it means business.
I hope and pray for everyone (in a VERY LARGE SWATH) about to face ...godspeed (again)
Let's see. Simple stuff. was huge. But sat off the coast for awhile as a CAT 2. Let's reason together that is HUGE and DANGEROUS and a MAJOR hurricane at CAT 4 and coming to a neighborhood near you very soon.
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troy
Unregistered
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reminds me of 1979 Huricane David hit and ran up the east coast then Frederick up into the Gulf. almost around the same dates as and too.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Sorry. That was a damn big post...
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