Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Clean up and rescue operations in the wake of major hurricanes Milton and Helene continue. No new threatening storms on the immediate horizon.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 17 (Helene) , Major: 17 (Helene) Florida - Any: 17 (Helene) Major: 17 (Helene)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | >> (show all)
Thunder
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: Rasvar]
      #28017 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:15 PM

Quote:

Must be difficult for someone with a Florida Gator icon to compliment the FSU Superensemble.




OUCH!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: I Think Frank This is a New Trend [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28018 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:17 PM

At least plywood can be taken out with an axe. Some of those storm shutters that get installed are down right impenetrable.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: Rasvar]
      #28019 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:17 PM

I was thinking the same thing

It was interesting, however, that in the 5PM discussion on Jeanne, Beven said:

THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

Earlier in the discussion he said that the GFDL was a left outlier that had come slightly more right this last run. As reliable as the FSU Ensemble seems to have been, this makes me a little more nervous. However it is way to early to really predict what is going to happen. Maybe by Saturday we'll have a better idea.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
canerazor
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 1
Re: Green Lightning [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28020 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:18 PM

my mom just jumped un off the porch, thought it was lightning. told her it was another transformer. we've seen afew go out 'round here; we still have power @ 8pm; lot's out in mobile south county. wind gusting in tree tops near hurr force, ground level 40mph or so. we're about 25 miles inland in Mobile though.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lhag
Unregistered




Re: This A Jog East [Re: tpratch]
      #28021 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:18 PM

Just got back to my computer. Is anyone else having problems accessing the buoy info or do i have another damn virus?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Green Lightning [Re: canerazor]
      #28022 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:20 PM

As the bands of Frances moved into Miami it was daylight, we couldn't see the flashes, but we could sure hear the POP when they blew. Luckily we never lost power.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: berrywr]
      #28023 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:22 PM

That shortwave trough is giving us LIers some rain and cloudiness today, isn't it weird that the NHC picks up Ivan with the trough but then doesn't think about how that will affect the path of Jeanne. I think their to infatuated with the models, and that they are oblivous to other factors. Don't really want to critize but sometimes I just don't agree with people.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: This A Jog East [Re: lhag]
      #28024 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:22 PM

Nope, not you, looks like the NDBC server is having problems. I can't get there either.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: BillD]
      #28025 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:23 PM

Latest GFDL has a somewhat improbable oblique entry into Florida somewhere around Jupiter and then shoots it up inland to around Jax. It had been further east this afternoon; but shifted back to a Florida strike.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now! [Re: berrywr]
      #28026 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:25 PM

The last few NEXRAD frames have it straightening out a bit, maybe even a slight left wobble being hinted at in the most recent frame. Yes, it's quickly getting to the stage where the wobbles from one scan to the next get awfully meaningful.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
VandyBrad
Unregistered




Re: Question [Re: leetdan]
      #28027 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:25 PM

I was curious about this myself earlier this afternoon and after some googling this is what I learned. In the Atlantic they have 6 lists of 21 names that they rotate every six years. If a storm is particularly historic, they retire that name and replace it with a new one six years later. If there is more than 21 storms in a given year, then they move to the greek alphabet (ie. #22 = Alpha, #23 = Beta, etc.). The most on record in the Atlantic is 1933 with 21 (I think 1995 had 19). The pacific is very similar except that several years ago (maybe 15), they actually got to W and decided real quick to add names for X, Y, and Z... they used all 24 that year. After this they kept the first 21 names alternating every 6 years and added X, Y, and Z names that alternate every other year. If they go past 24, then they will revert to the greek alphabet as well. I'm sorry I can't remember the URL for this, but if you search on google for "21 storms" I think you'll find something eventually.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: Keith234]
      #28028 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:26 PM

Keith,

I know you mean well, but right now people don't care that we're getting sprinkles while they're staring down the threat of a CAT IV.. Don't worry, someday we'll get "our storm" (might be sooner than later too); also, I'm not exactly sure what you mean about your comments about the NHC...they're the best in the business and I can assure you they're not "infatuated" with models.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 296
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: BillD]
      #28029 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:26 PM

I know one thing.....I wouldn't use the GFS right now this far out, because it has had right-track bias of late. It has been better the last couple of days, but I just don't think Jeanne has been initialized well, and it may have that problem for a while.

As for worst model performance (sans NGM), the ETA was terrible with Ivan. It had it going into the Yucatan, west of N.O., and is still too far left. Even this close in, the only run that was close to verifying was the 6z. From here on out, it is a Nowcast anyway. In all fairness, this model wasn't designed to predict cat 4 storms. Something to remember though for future storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Ivan coverage on ABCNews Now [Re: leetdan]
      #28030 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:28 PM

If you have digital broadcast capability and your ABC affiliate broadcasts ABCNews Now, they are now broadcasting the ABC affiliate from the Mobile/Pensacola area. I think it is also available in streaming video at http://www.abcnewsnow.com

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: MrSpock]
      #28031 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:29 PM

Thing about the ETA though was it sniffed out how far W Ivan could get. It was (and is) an outlier, but it and the European had their moments.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now! [Re: leetdan]
      #28032 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:31 PM

THis will be interesting to see how the eye of the storm reacts to the land mass.
As we've noted on his trip through the islands, Ivan has always dodged the islands except Grenada.
Even the very Western tip of Cuba, he seemed to side step around.
Now, faced with the continental U.S.A. there is no escape.
I'm sure there will be a wobble here and there before landfall.
I'd guess a few miles East of Moblle Bay.
We'll see.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RMagic
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 3
Re: Jeanne likely to hit Florida now! [Re: LI Phil]
      #28033 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:32 PM

Quote:

You guys seem somewhat passionate about your rivalries...




we are.....


sadly it's a wash.....they have rix.....we have zook

:cry:



all joking aside tho best wishes to all those that are affected by this thing. A good friend of the family currently lives and works in destin.....thankfully he decided to evacuate.

--------------------
Go Gators! (but ron zook makes me cry like a baby)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HMY
Unregistered




Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now! [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28034 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:34 PM

I've been wondering about the land dodging thing. Ivan was so precise around those islands. Is it possible for the hurricane to just skirt around land in the US? How long and far could that last?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ivan moving on a 020-030 heading now! [Re: HMY]
      #28035 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:37 PM

It does happen; but since this is almost a 90 degreeangle and there is no real way for it to bounce away from land, they seem to tend to bounce just a little ways. Maybe 5-10 miles max, I would guess. Opal did much the same thing. Looked like a dead hit near Pensacola Beach; but ended up bouncing over towards Ft Walton Beach.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
8 pm CDT [Re: Rasvar]
      #28036 - Wed Sep 15 2004 09:40 PM

Highest winds on land:
Pensacola NAS sustained at 46 gusts to 55
Lowest Pressure on land:
Grand Bay, AL 29.27"

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1159 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 114228

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center