HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
before i say anything else, anybody see that low/convective mass that ran up into newfoundland overnight? have to admit it looks better than edouard.
anyhow first off edouard has crossed florida. currently passing back offshore in citrus county, still has a 1011mb low and spotty convection. fierce shear overhead, but this is edouard we're talking about, so it might restrengthen in spite of everything. pretty good chance that ed is dead, though.
96L.. closer in to the shore yesterday, so we get to watch the drama on radar. unfortunately low level center and upper support still have not met the way they need to, so the drama will not happen so much as unfold. pressures are lower than yesterday, slightly, as the system is closer to texas and the lower ambient pressure due to continental heat.
95L throwing convection, heading west. that tells the story. shear probably not going to improve much, so it either develops as is or remains a semiconvective swirl.
system south of 95L still apparent on satelite.. i'm surprised. weak low level circulation near 14/40, drifting west. less convection to work with, but persisting. will watch until it is gone, not expecting anything.. but a good burst might get something going.
next african wave due tomorrow says bastardi. models like, take west, develop. will see.
front with a spinning mcc came off nc coast last night. various models try to develop another low off the east coast this week, in the bermuda triangle area.
that is the tropics. scottsvb have to ask: why do you make a forecast, not have it verify, change it as you go along, and then insist that you called it right? dolly didnt go where you originally forecast, didnt become a hurricane as you first surmised, turned up well east of where you first said.. and you award yourself the glory for forecasting it right. no system developed in the caribbean, instead one trying in the gulf.. so of course you called it right two weeks in advance. of course this makes perfect sense, because in every post you make, youre always right: plenty of lipstick on the pig makes it a beautiful woman.
scott, i'm just going to give you a pointer: there is a word you need to learn: CREDIBILITY. look it up, become familiar with the customary implications of this word, and integrate them into your posts.
you have interesting ideas. i know because i read them. the 'i'm always right' egoistic commentary would be better suited for cases where it is actually the case, though. when you screw the veritable pooch, then congratulate yourself.. nobody's clapping for you.
HF 1221z05september
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Way to go HF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I wonder why Scott isn't patting himself on the back for the system he said would form Monday and move into Mexico? WHY? Because it didn't happen!!!
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Very annoying that people post here as Anonymous. If you don't know how to put your name in username, at least sign it at the end.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
It looks like things are starting to come together about 100 miles or so SSE of Galveston near 27/95. Surface observations seem to indicate about a 1009 mb surface low in this area. Radar loops also seem to support this. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues today.
Houstontracker
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
The enjoyment of this site is the technical and good thoughts of those who post. Why do you have to post such nasty, negative things???? If some don't get things just right, so what. If you don't have anything nice to say, then don't say anything at all.
deltona
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Yeah, I agree, if you are going to be critical of someone, at least have the guts to identify yourself...
No guts, No glory...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Has good radar presentation south of Galveston. Any comments? HF Steve Shawn Colleen, Jason etc. BarryB
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Deltona, I'll assume your post is refering to me. I don't think my thoughts are negative. I doubt in school you turned in a paper without your name on it. It is nice to know who is posting so if you agree or disagree you can post back to a name instead of Anonymous.
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Oops Deltona, maybe you weren't refering to my post and I'm sorry if that is the case. So much nicer to know who is posting.
|
tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
|
|
I've been coming to this site every day, all summer long. I've learned to respect and like so many folks that I'll probably never meet personally. We're all here to share a mutual interest. If people want to jump at each other I suggest you open a private room on Yahoo and tear each other apart, but when you come back here PLEASE try to behave yourself and share your thoughts in a mature pleasant manner. Thanks.
Tom
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Visible shows old Eddie still has a Mid/low level circulation completely devoid of convection. Elongated center is located at 28.9N and 83.0W and back over open water in the extreme E GOM... need to watch to see if it can generate any convection, probably not because the shear is quite strong in the area, but I've become a fan of old Eddie... just like a baseball player past his time, he just doesn't know when to quit.... poor old Ed has taking quite a licking over the past three days.... I didn't think it would exit Fl with any kind of circulation... but it looks like it has...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
No, I wasn't refering to you. I was refering to the person who has been making very nasty comments to shawn and others that has nothing to do with the weather and signing themselves anonymous. At least I give my location and I will post my name. If they don't like what people on this site have to say, they aren't forced to view it. I like it because of the good information I get from you all. I trust your judgement on the weather much better than the local weathermen.
Kandis (Deltona)
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Actually, Steady Eddie's circulation looks better than ever. He probably won't strengthen, but it would be fun to see.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Yeah, another thing... the shear is really bad where he is now, but not quite as bad farther west about 150 miles or so... provided something doesn't develop in the NW GOM....
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
In lieu of nothing real exciting this year, steady Eddie has been a real trooper and fun to watch until something better comes along. And yes good satellite signature but no convection.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Since the has declared Ed DEAD... I'm back on to the western GOM... reviewing the wide range radar loops I think there might be at least one center trying to form at 28.4N and 93.3W... Its not real apparent on the vis but HINTs that it could be a center developing via radar... would like second, third or fourth opinions please... This particular center, if it is one, appears to be drifting off to the NNE or NE
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
LOL. I'm around 90/30. Guess there will be some swirling low-level clouds in the area this weekend
Another WASTED landfall.
Steve
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.7N 83.0W 20 KTS
12HR VT 06/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 20 KTS
24HR VT 06/1200Z 28.5N 85.3W 20 KTS
36HR VT 07/0000Z 28.6N 86.4W 20 KTS
48HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 88.0W 20 KTS
72HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 90.5W 20 KTS...INLAND
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Now that we are at the peak of the season let's see what is out there at this time.
1-First there are the renanants of Edouard in the EGOM but wont do anything as the shear wont fade away in the EGOM.
2-Then is the disturbance in the WGOM that slowly is trying to organize.
3-Hummm 95L small but with more convection might get more favorable conditions in the next few days.
4-Strong wave emerging africa that has a low pressure and the models are picking it and moves west.
5-I let this for the end but models develop a system near the south Bahamas in the comming days.
So let's see in the next 1-2 weeks what the tropics will have instore for us.
What is the opinions of all about what to expect in the tropics?
-------------------- My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Hey Steve, if old Eddie hits you in 72 hours then you've taken a direct hit by two tropical systems this year... Didn't I tell you old N'Awlens would get hit.... hey it was my prime target for the season... I just hope you still have shingles left on your roof ... hehe
Yeah, they were not as strong as I predicted but hey, none of em are strong period... at least I got the city correct...
|