LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Can you post it? Might be kinda neat to see it.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ken-SRQ
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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"cant get the NO radar to load"
If I attach this right, here is KMOB 284 NM at 16:13
For Frank P. - if I placed the curser correctly the approx center of the eye in the attachment is 28.27N 88.21W
Ken
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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The clouds in the eye almost look like they meldted away. I was surprised the convection bulged to the west the way it did.
The new ETA is coming out. Keep in mind, this has not been a good model on , and is an off-time model run, but by 48-54 hours, it shows some troughing in the east at 500h. It has lowered heights a little more, which should indicate a stronger trough, and I would think this trough should be able to pull the system away so that hopefully it doesn't sit over the southern App. for days. Caution, though, not out, and steering currents that far out in this pattern are a tough call.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Intellicast NO radar loaded in about 10 secs.
http://www.tripadvisor.com/Hotel_Review-...y_New_York.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Forecast overlay seems to show on track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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DPIA1
Holy pressuredrops batman!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Whoops...sorry about that, unless you're going to NYC. Try this:
http://intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide...ne&pid=none
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at the pic I posted on the main article edit... wallpaper material.
Man I really want to see a recon update now. The look of really isn't... well it isn't good for the Gulf coast.
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gonyen
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
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I agree the buoys are probably broken, however, I was just pointing out that a tornado that forms over water is called a waterspout. FYI... here are some facts concerning hurricanes and tornados.
Tropical Cyclone Spawned Tornadoes Facts
10% of deaths in the United States are associated with hurricanes are a result of tornadoes.
Most tornadoes occur within 24 hours after hurricane landfall. The exception is when there is interaction with a cold front after landfall. Then more tornadoes will occur two or three days after landfall, well inland.
Most tornadoes occur within 150 miles of the coastline.
More tornadoes occur during the morning and afternoon rather than evening or night due to the need for a tornado to have a heat source.
The Gulf of Mexico hurricanes produce more tornadoes than Atlantic storms.
The majority of tornadoes occur within 30 miles of the center of the cyclone, but there is a secondary maximum further away in the outer rain bands (100-150 miles away from the center).
Tornado winds can reach up to 300 mph at a forward speed of 60 mph and are usually 100-300 yards wide.
Just one more reason to evacuate if you are in the path.
gonyen
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Phil, good question, analyzing the latest recon... max winds are 131mph in the east quad... good for me.... max winds in center is 119 mph in the north, not west, again good for me.... bp not falling a little, not good for me... still going north good for me.... still at 88.2 good for me... in spite of a bad situation, I still have good things going for me...
If the eye were to go right over me, moving s to n, my winds would probably go up an additional 10-30 mph, but surge would still not be a problem.. you really have to be in the east quad to get the dangerous surge, an eye right over me would never give me the southerly winds. winds out of the east then west, no south per se... but the thing that would really kill me, and I use that termly quite loosly at the moment, is if the eye were to go just west of me, and I just don't see that happening, or continuing to hope that does not happen.
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Isabel on 9/12/03.
Bill
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jimm06
Unregistered
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a 42 foot wave was just recorded off Mobile!!the storm is still about 8 hours away
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yep recon has it down to 933 mb, it's getting stronger.
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Timbo
Registered User
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Any word on the Navarre Bridge or the Pensacola Beach Bridge?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Good news for FL...sig. shift to rt.
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.
** WTNT41 KNHC 152034 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
JEANNE TRIED TO FORM AN EYE IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST
AS IT WAS MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. WSR-88D
DATA FROM SAN JUAN INDICATES IT RETAINS A GOOD STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT DOPPLER WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
HURRICANE FORCE. THIS AGREES WITH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH FOUND 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS IT FLEW
AROUND THE PUERTO RICO COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. WHILE THE
GFDL IS STILL A LEFT OUTLIER...IT HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE
RIGHT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE AND SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. WHILE THE OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS TO QUICK DISSIPATION. MOST
LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST
SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION. IF JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS WILL BE OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL JEANNE MOVES AWAY...AS EVEN SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS
THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE COULD MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.4N 66.5W 60 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO
12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.8N 67.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.7N 69.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 20.6N 70.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 21.6N 72.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 74.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.0N 76.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 29.5N 77.5W 85 KT
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Frank...what would happen if the eye were to actually pass over your home? It's like 60 miles wide now...
Mbfly (me) will let y'all know tomorrow !! I'm quite convinced now that it will go over my house. Too bad it will be at night time; would love to take and send pics.
Still haven't had much rain, but wind is starting to howl a bit during the gusts. I've been watching a tall pine in a neighbors yard a few doors down and I think it's alredy leaning a little.
Boy, I am not looking forward to the next 12-16 hrs !!  After I lose communications, the next thing y'all will probably hear from me will be from Baltimore, MD. If I make it through the storm, I am not staying for the aftermath !
Prayers please !
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Correcting myself (again). Read the Jeanne update too quickly...the is shifting to rt, not track generally.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Yep recon has it down to 933 mb, it's getting stronger.
Ivan is strenghening
This is one mean hurricane!!!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Ken, if you're right then its moving due north.... I'd take 88.2 all night long.... hell, I might even drink a little crown to that...
ever think you'd be happen just to get 100-110 mph winds.... intense hurricanes can do that for you....
as it stands right now, this MIGHT not be as bad for me as Elena, which was bad enough, but I suffered no serious house damage, lost a few shinges and had a few holes in roof from oak limbs...... I can only continue to hope this plays out...
one thing that 's interesting being on the west side of a strong storm... the coast is lined with a plethora off oak trees along the beach, the strong winds blow off large limbs adn branches from the trees and you can see the up in the sky flying off into the ms sound... its so cool to see, in the past, I've gotten a lawn chair in the front yard and watch all the fireworks with the oak limbs and north winds.... I was younger then and will not do that tonight if I stay..
channel six NO says we should only get 70-90 mph winds, with gusts to 100+, that's the best news I've heard all day if it comes to fruition.
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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered
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JUst heard that fox news reprted a 40 wave 
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