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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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BillD
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28215 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:50 AM

I am one that has had more than enough of hurricanes for a long time to come, and I hope Jeanne does not survive Hispanolia, but the NHC seems to think it will. Also I fear for the people on that island, Jeanne has already dropped as much as 20 in of rain on parts of PR, at least 12 in elsewhere.

Bill


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sprinterblue
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: FireAng85]
      #28216 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:54 AM

It looks like the benchmark today for Jeanne will be whether she survives the mountains of the Dominican Republic. On my last vacation there, I biked those mountains and they are some very high peaks. I believe the highest peak is called Pico Duarte and is 11,000 feet above sea level. Jeanne's current track seems to be jogging southwest which is a little unexpected according to the models. Take a look...

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#jeanne

My "guess-cast" is for Jeanne to weaken but survive the DR. After that I think she will regain her strength. If she is a slow mover, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild post-Ivan and Jeanne will go further west than the models are now predicting. If Jeanne moves quickly, the ridge won't have time to rebuild and she will follow the models' path and go north towards the Carolinas.


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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: BillD]
      #28217 - Thu Sep 16 2004 08:56 AM

I am so tired of these storms. I think they're fascinating, but living in hurricane alley is wearing me down. I've decided that I won't worry about Jeanne (for now, as she grows-so will my worry). I am very worried about what's behind Jeanne!!!
Looks like Ivan may have made landfall in Alabama, but would appear that Florida has taken the worst hit.


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sprinterblue
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: HMY]
      #28218 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:17 AM

This has been a busy season! It's interesting to note the trend of a strong storm being paired with a weaker one at the same time. Examples:

Charley + Bonnie
Frances + Gaston
Ivan + Jeanne

Following this trend, I'm not nearly as worried about Jeanne as I am about the future Karl.


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andy1tom
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: HMY]
      #28219 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:20 AM

morning all,
made it through the night. still windy here 40 with gust to 60. lot of trees down. got power back about 7:30. still can't go out to get a birds eye view of damage. next door neighbor has a tree down on her house.hope all to the west faired ok. tornado's did us in. don't even want to talk about jeanne..


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doug
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: sprinterblue]
      #28220 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:21 AM

I agree that jeanne will suffer a near fatal blow today...The ridge is strong and is rapidly repositining itself SW'd due to guess what ...IVAN
Also an ULL is forming SW of the storm in the cetral Carribean
Jeanne is blocked from more northward turn for now and will have to encounter Hispanola, nd then if it emerges with a circulation into the Carribean, a potentially hostile environment there with southerly shear...It looks bad for this system to me.

--------------------
doug


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Keith234
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: sprinterblue]
      #28221 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:22 AM

There is a organizing area of convection about 300 miles south west of the cape verde islands, looks like we could have another depression. If this storm devlops I wonder when they will have it recurving, will it be a fish spinner because of that TUTT or will it recurve arouund the Azores ridge. Hopefully this one will be a fish spinner but we have Jeanne to worry about first.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
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New model forecasts [Re: HMY]
      #28222 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:28 AM

First, with the remnants of Ivan, which is still a big issue because if it stalls, areas that don't need rain, could see severe flooding......
I think 3 out of the last 4 GFS runs take the remnant circulation to the Va. capes before getting it trapped. This would be better news for those in the Southern App. because the rainfall distribution will be larger.
This is due to the fact that the GFS (and the last ETA run) have Ivan temporarily picked up by a trough moving through the N.E., then it cuts off again, as the trough moves away, and High pressure ALOFT builds over top the remnant low. In fact, the GFS closes off a 588 Dm height line over the mid Atlantic-N.E., which is pretty strong. How Jeanne interacts should probably wait for more data, and time.
I am not going to go into model forecasts for Jeanne, since I don't think any have been initialized well yet.
Here is a link to the Model Diagnostic discussion, which comes out twice a day, usually around 1.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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MrSpock
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: andy1tom]
      #28223 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:30 AM

glad to hear you are ok and able to post. Still be careful though.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: Keith234]
      #28224 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:32 AM

Latest Visible satellite imagery shows Jeanne now back on a WNW course. This should keep Jeanne riding along the spine of the northern coast of Hispaniola. Florida really needs to watch her since she may indeed weaken only a bit before clearing the island. I believe a more westward track will be shown by 5pm.

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Keith234
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Re: New model forecasts [Re: MrSpock]
      #28225 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:34 AM

Is that the Clark from this website doing the the models dicussions?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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jlauderdal
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #28226 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:37 AM

Quote:

Latest Visible satellite imagery shows Jeanne now back on a WNW course. This should keep Jeanne riding along the spine of the northern coast of Hispaniola. Florida really needs to watch her since she may indeed weaken only a bit before clearing the island. I believe a more westward track will be shown by 5pm.




yeah..she is doing the old bounce off the mountains like ivo did when nearing jamiaca...this thing has florida written all over it.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: Keith234]
      #28227 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:37 AM

Most models and the NHC official track both show a sharp turn northward just before Andros Island. Let's keep watching the models for that key turn in that approximate area. If not, it's a straight shot right into Miami. I already have this all figured out with Florida. The male storms like the west coast(Charley and Ivan) and the females like the east coast(Frances and Jeanne). See the pattern. Charley and Frances make direct hits and Ivan and Jeanne make near misses. We hope.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Rasvar
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #28228 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:42 AM

If you check with Pensacola right now, they would not be telling you Ivan was a miss. Pensacola got the worst of Ivan from the reports I am getting.

--------------------
Jim


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KC
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: FireAng85]
      #28229 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:44 AM

Thanks to all of you who post. I have learned so much since finding you! I plan to go back and read everything again when there is less stress attached to it.

I have been sending lots of prayers to all in the path of this monster. I hope it helps to know that efforts are mobilizing not only in Florida but all over the country to assist. I was amazed at how fast the electric utility trucks arrived from as far away as Indiana and Texas after Charley. The Florida National Guard was out in force. Police, Fire and EMS units came from all over the state. They'll be headed your way, even a delegation from Punta Gorda, many of whom lost their own houses in Charley, but volunteered because so many came to help their community.

Now back to Jeanne - hope we can scare her back out into the Atlantic, where she can't harm anyone else. Thanks again for all of your wonderful information!

Karen


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jlauderdal
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #28230 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:45 AM

Quote:

Most models and the NHC official track both show a sharp turn northward just before Andros Island. Let's keep watching the models for that key turn in that approximate area. If not, it's a straight shot right into Miami. I already have this all figured out with Florida. The male storms like the west coast(Charley and Ivan) and the females like the east coast(Frances and Jeanne). See the pattern. Charley and Frances make direct hits and Ivan and Jeanne make near misses. We hope.




that sharp turn seems a little dubious to me. just dont see it materializing i suspct NHC doesnt either since they are going down the middle of the guidance...no pint in scaring nyone at this point. heck local met in miami on nbc6 last didnt even put the 5 day come up because he said we are in it and there is no point in getting people concerned. i thought that was irresponsible because he told us we were in the cone yet didnt show it and isnt his job to report the facts. so i guess from now on i will look at roland steadhams info as incomplete. used to repsect the guy but id ont know after that stunt.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: Rasvar]
      #28231 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:46 AM

Officially a miss, landfall at Gulf Shores , Alabama. I am talking eye landfall here.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: andy1tom]
      #28232 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:47 AM

Glad to hear you are okay. Do you have any idea how the beaches fared? Especially the PCB area?

It's been raining here. The wind is starting to pick up a bit. Not huge gusts though. My neighbor went to pick up batteries and candles. I couldn't help but to laugh at her. (As a Fl girl, what we're going to get will be a picnic compaired to what Al/Fl got)

--------------------
Kelly


Edited by kelcot (Thu Sep 16 2004 09:49 AM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: jlauderdal]
      #28233 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:49 AM

I don't think that turn will happen either, also the NHC has the storm acclerating once it gets into the Bahamas and remaining hurricane strength. If you ask me, I think that they bombed on this track.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane [Re: Keith234]
      #28234 - Thu Sep 16 2004 09:56 AM

Well, this model tract is still 5 or so days out. Lets wait till it gets a little coser to see whats going to happen with it. I think the farther west it is able to go the more of the central or north part of the state may have to worry.

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