Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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oops, i guess i must have checked site when they were reissuing... well ok, they have not dropped their Statement, but issued the last one unless anything happens. However, the little low is trying to kick up more convection now than it did all day yesterday. Am waiting for the 12Z Surface Analysis to be made available so i can see if they are still indicating the low heading Northeast towards the convection over Jamaica and Haiti.
Oh well, at least it is an early test run 
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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After reviewing the vis sat loops I have one Italian word that sums up my feelings on the tropics this morning and the rest of the day....
"Fuhgetaboutit"
Everybody have a great Memorial Day Weekend...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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that statement was issued yesterday
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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OK, 12Z surface analysis still indicates that the weak low will head NE or ENE towards the convection near Haiti, but it also shows a new 1009 mb low developing near Great Inagua Island, just north of Haiti... interesting... and the models still show development!
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I just noticed the date on the Advisory. Odd because I just got the posting at 11:30am 5/25.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Good to hear from you. I appreciated the insights last year and look forward to more in 2002, but mostly it's just good to see you and all the regulars alive and well. I'm excited about June and August-October this year. And I also think there is potential for some Yucatan/BoC/Southern Gulf development this year.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sucker still doesn't look any better today. most of the focus has shifted south to near the coasts of honduras and nicaragua now, though convection is still east of jamaica and now in the florida straits. lots of shear, no well defined surface low. models are finally getting less agressive, though. perhaps 90L has been pulling our figurative leg.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/season.html
Hope this isn't a repost. But Gray's calling for 12/7/3 (possibly 13, 8, 4). He's going with Gray but trending possibly upward. My April was 13,8,2or3. His highest risks are coastal NC, and the NE Gulf based partly on tracks/activity in the analog years and the expected position of the Bermuda High (edging up to the east coast).
Personally, I think the Bermuda will nose into the US a little more than he's giving it credit for, so even though he's calling for fairly far western atlantic recurvature toward the Outer Banks, I think the risk for the SE US Coast is a little higher than he's giong with.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Finally, a visible circulation centre now exists for the Tropical Disturbance 90L. The latest series of visible satellite pics from GHCC show a definite circulation near 14.2N 83.6W. This centre is very near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, and appears to be heading east towards the coast. This is the first time i have seen this system have a definite circulation centre on imagery.
Does any one else see it?
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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houstontrakker
Registered User
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Loc: Spring, TX
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TEST
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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90L... well it still has an apparent circulation, that appears to have now moved off the coast of Guatemala near Puerto Cabezas. The centre is now located over the NW Caribbean, and the convection continues to fire up both to the east of the centre over open water, and also over land to the west. There is still potential for this disturbance to organise if it can hold together.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Several of the model runs are now leaving a piece of energy back in the SW Caribbean - possibly a different low pressure. Many of the others bring a low just south or east of Florida in the 72-120 hour period. The AVN from a few days ago picked up the convectoin just to the west of Florida today. My favoirte right now is the 
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002052512-one01e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Oops. Forgot to mention that I didn't buy it, but that I was still likin it.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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18z Surface Analysis is out. It has dropped the new low near the Turks and Caicos, but still maintains the Low (90L) near the coast of Guatemala / Nicaragua. It moves it very slightly to the south east and drops the pressure to 1008 mb. I am enjoying watching this disturbance, it seems to want to not go away, but it does not want to develop! Certainly keeping me interested before the real season kicks in.
Any way, hope i am not bothering anyone by keeping on bout this system, but hey it does have a chance, even if it is very slim! 
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Dont bother me Rich, Keep pushin on !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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with the American flag displayed out to the left...
"Proud to be an American cause at least I know I'm free"
Back to the tropics for tonight... zzzzzzzzzz
IR not impressive at all right now with only some light convection in the Bahamas and north of Cuba but nothing really deep except a small convection area west of Jamaica.
Area Rich has been monitoring very diligently today has no real convection over water, some deep convection over land however.
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Thank's Frank, I figured only fitting this weekend . ...................ALL GAVE SOME ..AND SOME GAVE ALL.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Thanks to all who made compliments....that was great that you rememebered!
I do have my e-mail addy in my profile, so if I'm not around and you guys have a question or need me, feel FREE to shoot me an e-mail!
Here is to a great '02 season!
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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now the apparent focus for a low is between jamaica and cape gracias a dios. the particular spot doesnt look all that bad as far as shear. convection is sort of slowly pivoting about it, not really going all that crazy, but it has that stewing look to it as opposed to convection bursting under shear striving to hold steady. all we need is for convection to begin in earnest now...
well, been waiting for days. if this joker does anything it will be on its on time.
by the way bastardi talks about another window in ten to fifteen or so. might as well, this season was supposed to start early. and i guessed july for a first storm.. looks like such a bad call now.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Ok, i am back... the advantage of being 5 hours ahead of most of you.... well it is difficult to really see any evidence of the low on current IR Satellite imagery, so i guess i will have to wait for the visible light imagery to come out in a couple of hours. According to the low is still near the coast of nicaragua / honduras with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Well if that is the case the nearest convection is well to the east over open water... oh well, roll on visible imagery to see if i can right this area off! I see are still keeping it as an asctive invest though!
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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