Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Any first obserations or comments on Kay... is this definitely a Texas storm? Any thought as to how strong it will get...
thanks
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I think so...but it will bear monitoring...would be a lot easier to tell if there was a real center...which leads to...
I think the is crazy for upgrading TD6 to Fay...I'm not even convinced it's a TD, but it certainly ISN'T a TS...
Name one other TS that recon was flying into and COULDN'T close off a circulation.
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Jason Kelley
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Hi I post here too and I know that you are not pleased with the upgrade to FAY.But it is organizing now and it will be strongerthan now at this time tommorow but the real threat from this will be the rain because of the very slow movement.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I knew you posted here...good to see you...
I guess I think it really doesn't do anyone any good...it gets everyone whipped up into a frenzy (certain TV guys which shall remain nameless)...It may very well reach TS strength tomorrow...it wouldn't surprise me at all if it did...it's just aggravating to me...it's not gonna reach land tonight...why not wait until it reaches that status??
I'm probably too worked up about it. I need sleep.
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Musta lost my reply to Frank P. Here's the condensed version Frank. I don't think Fay moves NW tomorrow. I think she sits. 00 model runs may provide some clues, but I don't have any. I do think, however, if the storm takes the Tropical Model tracks issued through the gov't, then there will likely be places in coastal TX picking up over 15 inches of rain. I would also expect a pretty wide swath of 5-10". By Sunday, Fay isn't even to San Antonio yet and will in fact, still be feeding on Gulf moisture. If I was in the Bayou City, I'd be a little worried.
Fay may end up a TX storm, but I don't think it's as quick as the is going with it. I'm almost ready to go to sleep so I can wake up and look at the morning IR and see what happens. I suspect a stronger system tomorrow.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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still looking sloppy.. shear has the convection on the NE edge of the (broad) center. i hear the complaints about overkill.. yes, they arent consistent.. but this one is threatening and is a broad closed low with gale force winds.. might as well give it the name. remember allison didnt actually close until it was right offshore.. gale force winds usually mean the system is practically a t.s. even if the structure is still awakward. pressures have been falling, down from over 1010mb about 24hrs ago, to the current 1006. once the center tightens and all it will then become a question of how much time does the system get over water. if we awake to a vertically stacked system tomorrow down near 1000mb, could be a hurricane late in the day. things can intensify pretty fast over the gulf in september. an eastward relocation would put the center more under the ridging and start the bastardi snowball rolling. have to watch for center relocations.. luckily SFC pressures still lowest SW of the convection.
edouard is holding for now at a 20kt depression, moving SW. believe it or not shear will relax if it continues in this direction, just in time for fay to start pounding away.
the bermuda triangle area has lots of ominous slow turning in the low level cloud field, while convection is bursting in places. 00Z model runs will be really spooky if they still want to develop something here like the last 00Z and 12Z sets.
invest 95L had slightly improved in appearance during the day, throwing an odd band of convection with regularity. good convergence ahead and lighter shear should give it better chances at organization. probably never threaten anywhere if it does develop.
low level turning i keep spotting ssw of 95L is still there, odd thunderstorm from time to time. almost no shear.. have to watch in case it gets convective.
dolly remains looking frontal, central atlantic trough lifting with them.
emerging wave should be tagged and invest tomorrow or saturday. should it develop immediately, probably be a recurver. longer it waits, more threatening its profile.
gustav is around the corner, i have a feeling.. probably a hanna somehwere in this active stretch as well.
HF 0522z06september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Seems like all the 0906 00Z runs want to bring Fay into TX anywhere from Houston to Brownsville. Some of them give her a south of West track after landfall without much stalling evident (though one models brings energy back to the BOC after landfall. I'm going to stick with stationary until new guidance comes out later today before changing my call. It's hard to go against all the models when they're doing more or less the same thing.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I've messed around with my-cast a bit this morning.
I like it!!
Thanks for the tip.
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Chad
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
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ooops...wasn't logged in.
Do you know if the set-up map at my-cast is just temporarily down?
I used the zipcode choice.
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Chad
28.97
82.48
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I'm at the tail end of a rainband over the last 15 minutes that dumped about a half inch on the area. Models @ 6z move the storm toward Corpus over the weekend. Look out for some torrential rain in EC TX.
Steve
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