Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Wow, you already have the finals, I just started school. Anyway if you look at any visible Sat imagery or any other imagery for this matter. You will notice a area of disturbed weather right to the left of where Jeanne is. Now this is a trough, or a elongated area of low pressure. These troughs kind of attract storms, the low part at least because hurricanes move in the direction of the prevailing flow of the atmosphere and these lows affect that flow. Think of the atmosphere as a fluid, the hurricane as an eddy and the trough as a whirpool it attracts the hurricane. Then the ridge is the exact opposite of a trough, hurricanes generally speaking don't like ridges and back away, sort of. There's a lot more to it them then just understanding upper level air features but a book on this material would greatly help. Only problem is there is very few books, and good books at that too. The best advice I can give for you is to learn through experince. Hope that helps!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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This was in USA today Sept 16....
If the remnants of were to cross Virginia would it have the same name or would it be assigned a new name?
A: 's remnants could cross the Southeast and regenerate as a tropical storm and maybe grow into a hurricane. If it did so, it would keep the same name. Storms that have done this have turned back to hit land again. Fortunately, none of the forecast models offer any indication that is going to do this.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2004-08-20-hurricane-answers_x.htm
course I don't know who "Ask Jack" is.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Now a major hurricane
Can you produce what/who is a major hurricane?
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Sep 19 2004 02:46 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, the new forecast from for Jeanne is just short of an official loop the loop. Still sounds like she is not completely stable. Stay tuned. Condiitions may change without notice. Offer void in Idaho.
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Jim
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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Rabbit, regarding Karl:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2004
...KARL BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1150
MILES...1850 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INFRA-RED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KARL
IS JUST COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND A DECREASE IN
WIND SPEED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS FORECAST FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N... 41.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Yea, I am getting an idea of what your saying. I will have to watch this and see it happen.
Thanks!
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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THere's one more historical reference for keeping a rejuvinated storm's name......Hurricane Camille.
That monster pulled a track very similar to ...exiting off the eastern seaboard and reintensifying to a 60 mph tropical storm...
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The 5 weather underground models all show Jeanne moving back to the west between 26 and 27 North. How they differ is the longitude it occurs at. The longitude is between 67 and 77 West. Looks like has pulled down much drier air into North and Central Florida. Dew points in the 50's and 60's there. Still sky high 70's down here. I hope it is a nice relief for those of you still without power. We had dime size hail here today.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The dry air is nice here. Have had a nice mid 60's dewpoint all day for the first time since, I think, May.
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Jim
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'm outta here!
This is ridiiculous!
Coop...good luck
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Yeah. The new discussion mentions the new center, and slight northward motion, but doesn't clearly mention whether the fix is definitively on the new center, the old one, or perhaps between (the phrase 'elongated' was used, perhaps relating the two centers together). I've been completely baffled whenever I've tried to watch any sat loops of this thing today, and frankly I'm surprised it wasn't downgraded again.
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[witty phrase here]
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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seeing as how I AM between 26-27 N and your home town of Boynton Beach is what? about 27.5 or so?
where do you think Jeanne is gonna go?
We are 80W. You say 67-77W but then where? North?
still confused ....6 weeks and counting now!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I was surprised today when the LLC got exposed, then the next update reported finding a new center. I have not looked as closely on this as when or were around, but my first look at the IR sat pic, and I thought "that looks more like an ULL"
My guess is that the models are going to have a difficult time initializing a center, at least for now, which will make the output even shakier.
Talk about a weather change, early afternoon here in NJ it was 76, dew point 73, when a heavy shower came through, then it was 65 with NE winds gusting to 30 within a half hour or so. It is now 59 with a dew point of 54.
I only got about .85" out of it, although Eastern PA got 6" in spots, doppler est.
A strong deformation zone formed, and concentrated heavy rain there almost all day. It actually had more of an feel to the weather here today.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It is really hard to tell where Jeanne is going to go. It looks like she may going in a loop to the east and then come back west. There are way too many questions to say where Jeanne may hit land or even a longitude at this time. [Assuming she does even hit land]. As of right now, it appears she will threaten nothing but fish and boats for the next few days.
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Jim
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi Kent,
You are at 26.1 N. and I am at 26.5 N. I don't think anyone can predict this storm. It might become a hurricane and it might die out. It might move N, E, W and maybe even S. This gal is crazy. Who knows? We may be threatened by her next weekend. Why not? Every weekend in September we have been threatened by a hurricane. Why not make it 4 for 4 to end the month.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Could you try to scale that back a little  ... one, somewhat worry free weekend would not hurt anyone  .
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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The one thing I can say with almost absolute certainty about this storm is that if if does all these stalls and loops straight out from our coast then we will most assurdedly get waves from it and maybe even for a long time. Spock , your weather conditions today kind of reminded me of one of our winter days after a front passes thru. Good night everyone. 
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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LOL WXMAN Richie
Am I sensing some of that "hurricane stress" we keep hearing about down here?
I hear ya and I am right there with you my friend.
Thanks for trying to explain Jeanne. As I said earlier I picked the worst possible time to try and understand hurricanes.
sigh
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, if you guys want a bad sign for next weekend. I have a Directv TIVO that was supposed to be installed the last month. First Saturday it was scheduled, came. I rescheduled for the weekend before Labor Day. came a calling. Well, I rescheduled the install last week. It is scheduled for Saturday. I hope I am not going to strike out! :?:
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Jim
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Karl will be way too far to the east when it recurves and goes to have an impact on Jeanne. Maybe it'll pump up one of the ridges in the Atlantic, but more likely the one near Africa/Europe than anything.
Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones is a process that is only partially understood now. There are many identifying signs: the cloud pattern becomes asymmetric and more representative of a midlatitude system, the SW portion of the eye begins to collapse, the wind field expands away from the center, and the center of the storm transitions from a warm core to cold core (at the surface & aloft) -- among other things. The exact timeline and path that these transitions storms undergo is still under research as well as identifying characteristics that can help better forecast the transition and impacts of transitioning storms along the coastline.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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