scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Clueless,,,the models have been showing a loop. Also there is a strong ridge building now over the eastern U.S. Circulation around this ridge is clockwise so since the remenents are on the east side it will go south then sw then w ,,,just like clock work.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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because i was a small girl down here in miami while he reinged as hurricane king and he drove home the point constantly to the point where at times he was treated by cynics like chicken little pointing to storm surge but he was right.. it was always his big deal, his biggest concern that people living along the coast realize the danger of storm surge.
So... as much as i love hurricanes, love to track them, am in awe of their beauty on the satellite, afraid of their power which is akin to nuclear bombs being dropped at landfall of such a strong storm...
I am never unaware that a storm surge can wash it all away in any given big storm.
And..if I ever did live on the water.. I would do it knowing that in an instant, in a once in a lifetime storm surge it could all be washed away.
This is a great site..so are others like hurricanecity that specializes in education and many online... but most of all I am happy I was never given any false sense of security that buildings built along the shore or near the shore cant be washed away in a strong storm.
Remember the night before Andrew driving around Miami Beach taking one last look because I thought after Andrew Miami Beach would look like Sullivans Island after Hugo or those beautiful white sand beaches after .
Glad people can be informed here.. really glad cause Neil is no longer running the show at screaming Storm Surge, Storm Surge and maybe someone should be.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Weather Underground has a nice model summary, showing a few of the most recent runs of the stronger models. While they do spread all over the place, they are consistent in that they bring Jeanne North and East for the time being, befor the high swings down behind and kicks it back to the west (you can see this clearly in the and UKMET runs, and to a different extent on the other models). Since there's only two days at this point that the models agree on, that's the only thing the is forecasting with any confidence (which explains the 'blob of uncertainty' for the 4-5 day positions).
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[witty phrase here]
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Speaking of time frames, what's the time frame on the loop heading Jeanne back to Florida. My kitten has a Vet appointment for Thursday morning this week to have her social standing removed.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Has made it back to sea? If a hurricane starts as an area of storm activity over warm water, then really could become reenergized?
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When it rains, it pours...
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The must be pulling hair, I would. They have it doing loops, prob. the hardest thing to do on a 5 day forecast map they may need a bigger eraser. The model runs from weather underground look like lines to me, that's why I like to see the storm actually moving and where the wind and rain take place. I have been noticing that models have been developing the right side more than the left, when you look up close at a fine-mesh model. I think they associate greater wind speed with a stronger rain and a lower pressure when it is really just the foward motion created by the motion of the storm. Unless I am totally wrong and models just like to develop the right side of hurricanes more then the left.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Just happened to notice it a little while ago probably nothing staying strong on the convection side thou.
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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Thank you, StormHound. I never thought I would say that I'm glad we faced , but now that I've seen 's destruction, I am so thankful to be here in Punta Gorda. We are still facing huge piles of debris, which is depressing. There aren't many signs of rebuilding yet. But it will happen.
Our Emergency Director here, Wayne Sallade, always preaches storm surge, along with keeping the wind out of your home. Most of Punta Gorda is at 12 feet elevation or less, I believe. Being at the top of Charlotte Harbor, I don't think we'd have the waves to deal with. But surge alone would be enough.
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Felix - where are you in Punta Gorda? Our Collier County EM Director, Dan Summers, also preaches surge and has made everyone aware of it and its consequences. We were spared because was a "small" (though extremely powerful) storm in comparison to and .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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ZZZZZZZZZZZ out of soo much frustration over the last 3 years I had to email Gary Gray and tell him hes not doing a good forecasting job and had to give him a few tips on the dynamics of the overall pattern envirioment which would support different models and consistancys. I mean I told him his posts on summering the model runs are nice but his forecasts need adjustments instead of guesses. Oh well I wont go into detail.
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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I'm in Punta Gorda Isles, on a canal, about 1/4 mile from the harbor. Our house is at 9.5 feet.
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Terri
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
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Quote:
thanks redbird, me and my two bassets weathered the storm just fine, I think they slept through the whole thing..... and I really appreciate your concern,, and also the great information that I got from the board during my "to evacuate, or not to evacuate" ordeal.... it was just fantastic support
For what it's worth, Frank, I got down on my knees and prayed for all of you folks that would surely be affected by . What else can a person do but that? Glad to hear that you and your bassets made it through the storm unscathed. Normally I lurk at this site because you fine folks are talking way over my head, but hey, I'm learning and quickly, too!. I am in complete awe of ALL of your skills, truly. Hopefully, one day in the not too distant future I'll be able to speak the lingo and understand it, as well. This hurricane season has been the strangest that I can recall in my 40+ years young. I certainly hope Joe B is wrong about the projected path of Jeanne because I'm going to get nailed if he's right. No doubt about the fact that Jeanne is a woman, though. She's as unpredictable as the rest of us. LOL Also, thank you for your mail welcoming me, Frank. I do appreciate it. I do hope that the check I just mailed to Mike will somehow help to keep this site up and running and aid in procuring any upgrades that may be needed. I count on you guys and gals to post possible scenarios. It really does help me to plan my course of action, should your predictions come true. Here's a big thanks from me to all of you. Being 100 feet from the Ogeechee River's edge, located on a small island, and being 10 minutes from the ocean "as the crow flies", I'm watching this unpredictable Lady Jeanne carefully.
Edited by Terri (Sun Sep 19 2004 04:00 PM)
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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The company I work for is getting ready to open a sales office at the end of West Marion and had a food tent, so I was there a few times. How did you fare? I also wish I had found this site before .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ok Jeanne getting alot better organized at the surface. The circulation is alot better defined and she now has nice outflow in 3 of the 4 quardrents. If this continues she could be up to 60-70mph by later tonight if she organzies more convection around the center. Movement continues to be around 355dg. Recon will be there in a couple hours and will give us a update on the pressure. I do believe they will find her a bit stronger at the least. Not sure though if the report will be out by the 2pm update but will by 5pm.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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ZZZZz no 2pm update as they were droped, so 5pm update they will adjust her with the recon.
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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KC, we can PM each other if you set your account to accept private messages.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Thankyou for your compliments on everyone. The GA coast doesn't normally get hit with storms because of the way it's shaped, it's indentured and the only way you could get a direct hit is if the hurricane was pointed at a straight line to you. Best of wishes in all your endeavors!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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clueless
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
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wow the models I was looking at were from BoatUs and they are all pretty straight - apparently not the most up to doat place to check
Make that up to DATE
Thank you all for your help - just trying to get a clue little by little
Edited by clueless (Sun Sep 19 2004 04:03 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Convection is firing up all around the storm, outflow has become more pronounced and is the storm is rapidly strengthing and the shear has decreasd, we will be back in hurricane status today if this continues.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Scottsvb,
Look at this WV Loop, what do you think that ridge will do to Jeanne's current northward movement?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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