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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Check this out... [Re: Rasvar]
      #29060 - Sat Sep 18 2004 03:56 PM

WV Loop

Anyone want to try to make sense out of this setup?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: Rasvar]
      #29061 - Sat Sep 18 2004 03:56 PM

TWC is forecasting Jeanne to head back over open waters. I am assuming they mean out to the Atlantic. They are not mentioning the new energy yet. So I guess we may be out in front about 24 hours.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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AdmittedHacker
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Re: what about another area to look at. [Re: Rasvar]
      #29062 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:04 PM

Somebody said it looked like Jeanne hit the "eject" button.... that was cute... and very appropriate. Being a newbie on here (since Frances) I gather I'm seeing a lot of new stuff that even the old timers haven't seen...

This is twice that the eye of Jeanne has split off... that has to be unheard of. How many lives does she have? Will Cuba be her undoing?


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poetdi
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #29063 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:04 PM

This is only my 2nd post having lurked and learned since before Frances hit us here in the Orlando area. FWIW I have a friend who works for Progress Energy (old Florida Power) who told me today they've released and sent home all the power crews they had here locally getting everyone's power back. They must be pretty confident that we'll have nothing else hitting us for a while to have done that... I guess Progress Energy watches the models and has forecasting going on there too.

Thanks so much to everyone on this board for the learning opportunities is has provided us all.

Poetdi


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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: poetdi]
      #29064 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:11 PM

poetdi... I'm sure it's much more a matter of priorities. Surely those crews are badly needed in the aftermath of Ivan's path, now that the Central FL power grid is mostly reenergized.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Check this out... [Re: LI Phil]
      #29065 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:15 PM

I have had a couple of ideas about that all day but I am going to sit on them for now and enjoy this weekend

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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ShaggyDude
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Jeanne's Split Personality [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #29066 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:15 PM

If you look at the floater on the below website, it looks as if the little swirl that appears to be Jeanne's LLC is now moving SSW if not S. Can anyone verify or know of any source that's trying to describe what's going on until the 5 PM discussion comes out?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

It also looks as if a circulation is trying to form just north of the Caicos Islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Edited by ShaggyDude (Sat Sep 18 2004 04:18 PM)


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mojorox
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Re: Jeanne's Split Personality [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #29067 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:19 PM

I'd love to know too. I am a total novice and I do not understand what would make the center drop off all the convection and leave it behind.
Helen


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poetdi
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #29068 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:23 PM

AdmittedHacker, you are no doubt correct and that's the right thing for them to do. Many of the crews that worked on our neighborhoods here were from North Carolina and they need to be at home helping their own. But apparently some crews had been staying here cooling their heels waiting to see what happened with Jeanne.

Slightly off topic but since electricity is so central to all our lives and the discussions here have touched on how much we missed it (for myself, 9 total days with both Charley and Frances) - several local governments (including the one where I live) are considering localizing the power utility and ending their contracts with Progress Energy. After watching the resources ProgEnergy commands in these situations I can't believe they'd still seriously consider it. Don't know if anyone else has seen this happen but it boggles my mind.

Poetdi


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: poetdi]
      #29069 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:26 PM

I was just reading the caribbean site and it looks like Jeanne is not as weak as she seems on satellite. She has given the DR quite a storm and she is causing some flooding rain in the Turks and Caicos so what ever she may or may not be at this time she is producing head aches.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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richisurfs
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: poetdi]
      #29070 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:35 PM

I just talked to a friend of mine from West Palm Beach and he just got power back yesterday. My brother said that up in Ft. Walton Beach he might be without power for up to three weeks.

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leetdan
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: poetdi]
      #29071 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:39 PM

Yeah... on my drive to work Friday (Orlando to Palm Beach for the weekend), I passed dozens of utility and tree-trimming trucks heading back north on 95. There were still a few in the area down here, including a few from Progress... but remember all those out-of-state guys are just contracted for disaster relief, so they were either heading back to their home regions, or better yet to Ivan country.

While FPL has been getting a lot of blame for slow restoration (and rightfully so, thanks to their complete lack of tree clearance), the actual line crews have all been top-notch, and worked their butts off to get things back up as soon as possible.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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ShaggyDude
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Re: Jeanne's Split Personality [Re: mojorox]
      #29072 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:43 PM

Latest Discussion Out

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html


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poetdi
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: richisurfs]
      #29073 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:47 PM

Yes, it's been challenging. I know people in Port Orange who were without power for several weeks after Frances. I am very grateful that we got our power back on so relatively quickly - although I admit moaning loudly about it at the time. We certainly don't want to go through it again, regardless, and are glad Jeanne seems likely to fizzle or go elsewhere - or so it seems today. I suspect we will move from Florida before the next hurricane season. Thinking of Arizona but even there is apparently not safe with Javier looming!! What a crazy season!!!

Poetdi


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Admitted Hacker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne's Split Personality [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #29074 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:47 PM

Shaggy, you are right. The former eye is being pulled into the inertia of the initial circulation. The latest frames show it heading SSW then S... if that continues, it will be pulled into the straits between Cuba and Haiti.

While this may put it back over land (haiti) on the easterly leg of the rotation it also combines the eye with the original vapor remaining over the DR. You can see convection now firing up on the extreme end of Haiti, at the end of the island.

Here'a another link for a sat loop (click large & most recent):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...04-ATL-09L.IVAN,04-ATL-11L.JEANNE,04-ATL-12L.KARL,04-EPAC-13E.JAVIER,04-WPAC-92W.INVEST,


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leetdan
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: poetdi]
      #29075 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:50 PM

Hate going off-topic, but in reply to localizing power utilities, it's an interesting idea that easily can go HORRIBLY wrong. Take Lake Worth for instance... The city does their own utilities, but it's all just bought from FPL (no generation of their own, Lake Worth isn't nearly big enough). It's been highlighted well before the storm that they pay the highest price per kWh in the state, and have the worst service / most outages. The city lost power about 18 hours before the storm hit, and restoration didn't begin for almost a week. Suffice it to say, some things are better left in the hands of large, financially independent corporations.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Steve
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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: leetdan]
      #29076 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:50 PM

Final word on the disagreements from me:

Spock, I was critical once but apologized because I thought you were someone else. I told you so in the prior thread. But what you find critical of yourself in this:

That's what he believes. People accuse him of hyping and sensationalism. He likes the extreme stuff (as apparently so do we). But that was his opinion. I have not read today's post, but let me see...

He thinks it's cat 2 or 3 by Tuesday/Wed with all options open. Ivan's MLC should split south and southwest tonight bringing gales to the northern GA coast and end up in the NE Gulf by around Monday nigh (depending on what's left). The irony woul dbe something heading toward the West and Central Gulf (again, due to the pattern, similar to way Gaston was sniffed out 2 weeks before anything was there) that is neither Ivan nor Jeanne, but could be one or both.

I said last Thursday morning on S2K and posed a challenge in 3 different threads for any of the met gurus to figure out what is the most complex tropical situation we've seen in forever. Bastardi also acknowledges(ed) the same thing and presents his opinion as such.


is beyond me. I was simply explaining where I was coming from and what he was saying. If you don't agree with it, fine. I said I didn't agree with Bastardi in the reply after the original cut and paste from the S2K thread. I just presented what he said MIGHT happen. In the response to Darth, I used the UK Met.

My take is that it's been "too complicated to guess" since Thursday. It still is. We've got interaction with 3 storms or (or their remnants). Anything could happen. Ivan's MLC (if the UK Met - which has changed a little since the 00Z run) might be a Gulf entity as just some showery weather. Jeanne could get in the Gulf, but I think the slower she is really determines her fate. I don't agree with Bastardi about the compromise tracks between Frances and Ivan close to Florida. I see it much farther north of there. And if it gets back too far NNE after Monday or Tuesday, it may never get back to FL. If it even comes back, we'd be talking Charleston and farther north. No hard feelings. I don't agree with him either, but his strogest lean was put out for informational purposes.
----------------------------------------------
richie,

No big deal. What I think you're saying is after being hit by 2 storms, the last thing you want is someone telling you to watch out for another one because the official forecast doesn't call for such scenario yet. In truth, there are probably numerous options from no landfalls of anything to a couple of strikes on the coast over the next 8-10 days. I told Spock I was confused. I'll tell you the same thing. I don't think anything will be cleared up this weekend, and probably not even by Monday or Tuesday. Until then, it's all eyes on the tropics.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


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Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: Steve]
      #29077 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:57 PM

Ok Steve...thanks and here's hoping to no strike anywhere and some good waves from Jeanne or whoever/whatever she is right now

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HMY
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Re: Jeanne's Split Personality [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #29078 - Sat Sep 18 2004 04:57 PM

Looks like the area behind Karl is starting to develop.

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LI Phil
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CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for? [Re: HMY]
      #29079 - Sat Sep 18 2004 05:01 PM

Besides rickonboat, is there anyone who hasn't checked in after Ivan? Anyone besides me the least bit concerned?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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