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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
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Re: JB? [Re: MrSpock]
      #29166 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:18 PM

I'm guessing it would be a different name because the NHC doesn't believe in "life after death with tropical systems."

Edit:
I think we should make a forum for having commentary on the NHC forecasts and JB's forecasts. ED is going to get very mad at us if he see's doing all this talk about JB and the NHC.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Sat Sep 18 2004 09:21 PM)


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Rasvar
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Re: JB? [Re: Keith234]
      #29167 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:32 PM

Well, we are talking about in the context of forecasts now and not the politics. Right now, it is like the end of the first half of afootball game and someone is going for a hail mary and hopes they hit it forecast wise. If not, things will settle and the truth will fall out of the sky at some point.

Everything is pretty much conjecture at this point. I'mnot even sure that if someone said something will happen in six hours that it would be a good chance of happening. It may the most confusing dynamic situation I have seen in some time. I think there is a general consensus on moving north and east at some time. Beyond that, I don't think anything is certain.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 18 2004 09:34 PM)


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bobbi
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nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Keith234]
      #29168 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:35 PM

Sitting here trying to catch up to speed with like 400 posts and emails.. NHC kept Mitch .. Mitch after it was over land for 3 days and i always thought it should have been Nicole but they insisted on reusing Mitch when it came north towards Florida and the Gulf.. looked to me like remnants mixed with other system but they went with Mitch.. go figure.

Still trying to catch up on the Ivan controversy and figure out the jeanne thing after being off for 3 days


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LI Phil
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JB redux [Re: bobbi]
      #29169 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:38 PM

He was just on again...anyone catch that? SSDD

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: bobbi]
      #29171 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:46 PM

Didn't the NHC say something like that about Bonnie becoming TD 9 and then after it was said and done, it was two storms.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Keith234]
      #29172 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:51 PM

>>>> Didn't the NHC say something like that about Bonnie becoming TD 9 and then after it was said and done, it was two storms.

Well, Bonnie did form from the remnants of TD 2, but you are correct, look at Unisys and they have both TD 2 and bonnie listed, yet technically, bonnie should have been TD 3. We had a big to-do on this earlier this year.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: LI Phil]
      #29173 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:58 PM

Bonnie was rightfully classified as TD2, because it was the same wave and the same low area

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Kent
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Rabbit]
      #29174 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:01 PM

Darn it I just read about this subject last week! I know they said it had to remain below a certain wind speed and look like it was broken up but I can't remember exactly. They do have precise perameters though.

I may have even read it on here....

sigh


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LI Phil
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Rabbit]
      #29175 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:02 PM

Rabbit,

We've had this argument before...my take then, and this is my take now, is that TD2=Bonnie. It formed from the same wave as you said.

If Ivan's remnants somehow miracuously reform into a TS, in my book that should still be Ivan, but mark my words, they will call it Lisa (unless something off Africa gets named first, then it would be the M storm - Michael I believe but I need to check that)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: LI Phil]
      #29176 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:07 PM

just a corrective note: Michael was 2000, Matthew will be this year (replacing the infamous Mitch)

Also, if Ivan regenerates, it will be only the fifth system to become an extratropical system and go back to a tropical one
(1=storm in 1899; 2=storm in 1943; 3=Bonnie, 1992; 4=Dean, 2001, after degenerating to a wave)


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Keith234
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: LI Phil]
      #29177 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:08 PM

Didn't want to bring up an arguement, why don't you email an NHC forecaster about this subject. That could shed some light on this.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Rabbit]
      #29178 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:09 PM

Yeah, when I said "Michael" I knew that didn't jive with the six year cycle.

Any long time posters/lurkers dread that name (Matthew) too. And not because of hurricane action either!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
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Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29179 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:14 PM

Jeanne is becomming a very frustrating storm from a forecasting standpoint--I have made about 15 separate forecasts since it formed, and not one has occured yet

This problem will get worse as we head into the last two months of the season, which are notorious for erratic movers--need I mention Gordon in 1994?


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Kent
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: LI Phil]
      #29180 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:15 PM

Now that was just wrong...

No secrets!

and can anyone tell me if Jeanne has two eyes now or what?


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recmod
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: LI Phil]
      #29182 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:18 PM

Phil..I think you'd be wrong on this one. They (NHC & Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) are still labeling the sysytem as the "remnant circulation of Ivan)....The Hydrometeorological Center even goes so far as to refer us to local weather service offices for furthur updates on this system (I assume since it is back over water and no longer under their jurisdiction???) Sounds to me IF ( a big IF) this cranked up again, they would reinitiate advisories as Ivan.

As for historical reference of the NHC reinitializing advisories on rejuvinated systems, we need look back no further than 2001. Both Chantal and Dean weakened to open waves before restrengthening back into tropical storms. In both cases, the NHC continued to use the name already given the system.
--Lou


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jaybythebay
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Thanks for prayers [Re: Kent]
      #29183 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:18 PM

Power back here in parts of Mobile. What a difference 30-50 miles makes. Hope things slow down soon.

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Keith234
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Rabbit]
      #29184 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:18 PM

The remnants of Ivan have broken up into two, one piece of the energy is heading southward while the other, more northward. The northward one is heading to that big semi-permanent low and the southward one is just heading southward. Who knows what that one will do but it's right now more of a baroclinic system and it is feeding off the energy of the front.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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DMFischer
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Re: A question please [Re: LI Phil]
      #29185 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:19 PM

Somehow I keep watching Karl, (and yes I now know that I am watching Karl, not Jeanne. sigh its all the studying for finals) and since I am learning I want to see why it is believed that Karl will turn north. My eye is new at this, but I sincerely want to learn.

Thanks
<me

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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Rabbit
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: Kent]
      #29186 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:20 PM

Figured I'd mention this while it is still the 18th:
Today is one year since Isabel, and 82 years since the Great Miami Hurricane


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Rabbit
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Re: nhc doesnt believe in revived storms/? wrong [Re: recmod]
      #29187 - Sat Sep 18 2004 10:22 PM

here is a full list going back to 1979 on storm regenerations
*=first part was a depression only
Claudette, Jul 15-18 and Jul 24-29 1979--shear
Dennis, Aug 7-13 and Aug 16-21 1981--shear
Fran, Aug 11-12* and Aug 13-14 1990--shear
Bonnie, Sep 17-26 and Sep 28-30 1992--extratropical
Bret, Aug 4-9 and Aug 10-11 1993--shear
Fran, Aug 23-25* and Aug 26-Sep 6 1996--shear
Danny, Jul 16-20 and Jul 24-26 1997--land, LA to VA
Mitch, Oct 21-Nov 1 and Nov 3-5 1998--land, Mexico
Nadine, Nov 24-26 and Nov 27-Dec 1 1998--shear
Helene, Sep 14-15* and Sep 19-22 2000--shear
Chantal, Aug 15-16 and Aug 17-22 2001--shear
Dean, Aug 22-23 and Aug 27-28 2001--shear
Erin, Sep 1-5 and Sep 6-14--shear
Felix, Sep 7-8* and Sep 10-18 2001--shear
Bertha, Aug 4-2 and Aug 7-9 2002--land, Louisiana
Isidore, Sep 14-15* and Sep 17-26 2002--shear
Lili opened to a wave for 12 hrs during the day on Sep 26 2002
Bonnie, Aug 3-4* and Aug 9-12 2004--shear
Gaston, Aug 27-29 and Aug 30-Sep 1 2004--land, SC to VA
some of the info is wrong.. but you're a through fellow, rabbit. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Sep 19 2004 02:06 AM)


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