AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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I agree... the models for Jeanne continue to trend eastward with each run. The liklihood and severity of 's potential influence on Jeanne's track wanes with every hour as 's remnants continue to race NE at 20 mph.
Without a northerly turn, will still reemerge into the Atlantic, but it will be in the Philly/NY area as opposed to the Chesapeake Bay as originally predicted.
The models are changing constantly right now so there is no confidence in much of anything, except the trend for a general eastward shift of Jeanne's path with each new run.
The data does seem to support the potential for gaining strength over the next 12-24 hours, though...
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Not being an Accuweather subscriber myself, I'll certainly admit I'm not too qualified to comment on the services they provide. However I did read a spot in the paper today about just this, the private vs. government conflicts in forecasts. I can't recall if it was an AP release, if so it may have found its way in to some of your newspapers too.
Anyways, they showed three maps representing three forecast tracks yesterday, by both Accuweather and the . The writer of the article seemed to boast about how Accuweather issues 7-day forecasts while the does "only" five. Also, the Accuweather rep they interviewed boldly talked down about the , claiming they always issue "conservative" forecasts, and are "reluctant to change their forecasts" if conditions change.
This appaled me, to say the least. First off, the Accuweather forecasts showed little change (a drift under 100 miles North on the FL coast) over the day, while the started with a west hook, but had it curving east by the end of the day. This contradiction aside, I find it irresponsible for a meteorolgist to take pride in the fact that they make risky (synonyms of risky: insecure, high-risk, speculative) long-term forecasts about a storm that nobody can securely forecast yet.
Accuweather provides a paid service, and being a capitalist society there's nothing but nothing wrong with that. Talking down about one's competition is certainly normal, but in the case of the government issuing life-saving directives about hurricanes, I think that kind of childish competitiveness is grossly inappropriate in a situation like this.
I'm at work at the moment, if I find that article online I'll link to it, otherwise I'll post it up here when I get the chance.
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[witty phrase here]
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Although this may be a sociological comment it bears repeating that the addiction to profit making has consequences of killing people when they are depending on a forecast to decide whether or not to evacuate. Until people begin to value people's lives above fame and fortune, we will all be left to making our own decisions and trusting nothing that comes with dollar signs. We all need to know a little meterology:
Come in out of the rain.
Shut the doors and windows when the wind blows.
Get a boat and ride if the water is over your head
Buy food that does not need a can opener unless you have a mechanical one.
Don't believe anyone who doesn't live within 5 miles of you that its raining unless you check for yourself.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sat Sep 18 2004 12:46 PM)
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COgal
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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What is the rotation on the SW side here?
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Interesting swirl on SW side could be low level center? Its quite small and has justed passed over Great Inagua island or island just north of Hati and western cuba. This could be the center but its hard to tell. If it is its moving west or WSW. This just adds to forecasting trouble with Jeanne. Then again it could just be a little mesoscale low or something? 
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I thought that was the Center of circulation for Jeanne. ! But, Now I am scratching my head wondering if I have been seeing things.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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darthaggie
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Continuing from the last thread:
DarthYankee,
Funny thing happened on the way to my synopsis of Joe B report making "zero zilch no" sense eh?
I stand by what I said. Go look in the water vapor loops, and look at that magnificent trough over Florida. The door into Florida is closed for the moment.
Come back in three days and we'll see what we'll see, but I see Jeanne swirling away to the north-northeast as a storm of small note.
(unless you're in Puerto Rico or Hispanola, in which case it is of bigger note)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Maybe the LLC is trying to reform, that sometimes happens. This will put a damper on the models if that really is a new LLC forming, they'll have to be re-intalized. Oy vey.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Steve...I have no agenda.....Come on, do you understand we have been hit by two and we don't need a guy coming on national tv and saying that yet another one is coming into Florida when the is NOT saying that? I know what I saw and heard and I have a total right to my opinions on it. I have no agenda at all. I just want the truth. i told all you guys out there who are big defenders of Accuweather that I have a right to my opinion on it. You can keep responding to me and defending this guy all you want but you are not going to change my mind. First, try having two of them run over you in a matter of weeks and then tell me how you feel when some guy gets on there and says with pretty close to absolute assurdity that another one is going to be running over you. I'm done arguing about it and I won't respond to it anymore. I know what I think and I don't have to pay $14.95 a month to think it.By the way, I "totally" understand the big picture. It has a "direct" effect on me.
Edited by richisurfs (Sat Sep 18 2004 02:01 PM)
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COgal
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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Is Jeanne's center of circulation
leaving the convection behind her?
If she hits Cuba will that be the end of her?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I'm not sure that is the center or not. Sure looks like it is a possibility that Jeanne hit the EJECT button.
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Jim
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Looks like she did; the says that it appears to be the center.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.public.html
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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LOL funny,, why did I see that happening a couple hours ago. ZZZZZZZZZZ I agree with lets get recon in there to get a fix to see if there is a developing LLC near the midlevel low near 21.4N and72.2W. If not, then all things are off, even the N turn they expect with the swirl. I say they will find the swirl is indeed the center, the mid level low will eventually come down to the surface later by Sunday-Monday after drifting NNE. Then become better organzied during Monday then make the move SW then W Tuesday-thru Thurs and threaten florida later that day into Friday. By next weekend A strong trough will replace the strong ridge early this week over the eastern U.S. and drive anything that is in the eastern gulf N and NE.
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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or did Jeanne just give birth? 
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Still moving West.
Accuweather may get their storm thru the Fl straits after all.
But it may just be a slight twirling of wind with no clouds or rain with it.
This is one strange "storm" ???
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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With the way this season is going, both areas probably develop into storms. This storm is named wrong. Should be called Phil, as in Niekro. It is a new knuckleball every few hours.
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Jim
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Twice, you have been highly critical of me, I don't think I deserved either one.
Did you forget the major props I gave JB for his O'Reilly interview?
Those who don't like JB did not criticize for that one though.
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Droop
Unregistered
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Hey guys, Im alive and well. Just got power back on at my dads work in Pensacola cause were so close to a hospital. Just to let you know that will be my last hurricane EVER. It was the most terrifying night of my life. The damage is extreme and I cant get to my house in Gulf Breeze cause all bridges are damaged. Iheard reports that a 35 foot wall of water is what took out the I-10 bridge and reports of 20 foot surge and 38 foot waves in the SOUND, not the gulf. The gulf had reported waves of near 45 feet. Its just horrible around here. Damage is EXTREME. I cant explain how the winds sounded. It was a loud deep roar for hours. Downtown is devastated. Large, 50+ year old trees, alot of 100+ year old trees are snapped. Roofs are gone its just bad. This place will never be the same. Im gonna hopefully get to Gulf Breeze tomorrow and see my house. Hope everyone is done complaining about slow seasons now. I personally wouldnt ever mind tracking another hurricane again. Well, Im gonna go and start picking up. Ya'll have a good one.
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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We have something here in Houston that you all don't... Dr. Neil Frank!!!! I'm so happy he is here!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Jeanne
be sure to click the forecast points to see where the storm isnt going
Jeanne is looking more and more like a Debby in 2000 scenario--it is being sheared, and while expected to turn north, it is going west
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