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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Subtropical Storm Gustav
      #2942 - Mon Sep 09 2002 12:06 AM

Gustav is still very much subtropical and will probably stay that way during the night. Center still trying to form - I placed it at 30.5N 73W at 03Z, or a little southwest of the NHC coordinates. Movement has been nil for the past few hours. I'm still not putting a high degree of probability in the northwest track. This subtropical system has its origin in an upper level low. Tropical models try to move systems based on their tropical nature and the environment that will influence them. Models don't handle subtropical systems with cold-core low origins quite as well. Eventual movement, at least the initial movement, could turn out to be far more westerly than currently advertised - I don't expect anything to happen too quickly with this system. Upper low systems that evolve into tropical systems don't usually make drastic direction changes so I'd keep an eye on Gustav from north Florida to Cape Hatteras.

Sidenote: Gulf of Mexico is looking interesting - the proverbial boiling pot - possible development in a couple of days. Wouldn't surprise me any to eventually see a significant system, however there is no evidence of structure at the moment. Area just north of the Yucatan has potential.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
STS Gustav - Update 09/09
      #2959 - Mon Sep 09 2002 06:34 PM

Forecast performance to date on this system has not been stellar. I sense a stubborn reliance on tropical models for this far-from-tropical system As noted by Bill, from 18-20Z this system had three separate low-level circulations which were easy to detect in the visible imagery (and probably a couple of others that were under the heavier convection). This system can't stack at the low levels, much less aloft, so I don't see a sudden transformation to a tropical warm-core system. Movement is not northwest, it is westerly. Actual heading over the past couple of hours has been about 260 degrees and weakness in the outlying upper cloud patterns suggest that 250 is not that far away. I think that Gustav is about halfway through an irregular cyclonic loop. If this pans out, then two probable future tracks could occur: 1) the system completes the loop, remains well offshore, and the delay caused by the loop allows the system to get scooted off to the northeast under the influence of the approaching trough - or 2) the loop places the system far enough south such that it does not get influenced by the trough. Building high pressure (and northeast shear) behind the trough forces the system to the west southwest (perhaps even southwest although this seems a bit unlikely) similar to Edouard. In either case, full tropical development is not going to happen soon (if at all). Sometimes (and its easy to do) you can get caught in the trap of looking at the models for the future of a system and you forget to examine what has been going on in the past few hours. If this system remains below hurricane strength (and I think that it will), it will tie the record for the most consecutive tropical storms in a row - which was 7; 3 at the end of the 1906 season and 4 at the start of the 1907 season. This is the first recorded season that has ever started with six straight (maybe about to become seven straight) tropical storms. I can't recall the year, but one season only had four systems - all Tropical Storms.

Hmmm - If they call it a subtropical storm (and it is) why don't they issue subtropical storm warnings?
Cheers,
ED


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: STS Gustav - Update 09/09
      #2970 - Mon Sep 09 2002 09:37 PM

ed.. not quite following ya. since about mid afternoon gustav has started throwing core convection and now has quite a bit of it. much deeper than the earlier stuff. i'm thinking the forecast tracks are pretty much on target, maybe underestimating the ridge just a tad. theyre all in such good agreeement, no reason not to go with them.
by the way, NHC lack of continuity is annoying me. they havent upped the winds for quite some time now even though the pressure is falling. that one buoy is almost right under the center and reporting 997.. not your normal fare 40kt storm. not to mention recon got winds at 53kt flight level around 1930z and didnt reckon this into their formula. so what if it was SW quadrant, and not the usual NE quad max.. thats where all the convection was. dont you usually get your max SFC winds in a slot where the convection is heaviest in one of these storms?
anyway 53kt equates to 48kt surface, which is good for a 60mph storm. that was before the 5pm update, when they changed nothing.
i really hope they fix this at 11pm. and make it TS gustav finally.
HF 0132z09september


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