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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Ricreig]
      #29655 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:33 PM

I am truly sorry Ric you had to endure this. No right words to say to take away the anguish................I am feeling the same way about insurance rackets and I know being the bullseye is no fun as T-ville got a wallop both times.

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LI Phil
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Ricreig]
      #29656 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:34 PM

Richard,

I think you just spoke for 99% of the state of Florida! You know I'm wishing, hoping & praying Jeanne doesn't hit Florida...

That was a very moving and heartfelt post...hopefully many will be able to read it...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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EriktheFled
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29657 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:34 PM

The Gulf system is interesting; though convection has increased, the LLCC is still exposed due the shear. I remain skeptical as to its prospects; the models remain nearly unanimous in maintaining hostile conditions over the western Gulf through 48-72 hrs. At most, we're looking at a minimal TS, and quite possibly "only" a depression.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29658 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:35 PM

WOW Andrew anyone? well not the strength but Im still going on the Andrew track, just 150 miles north. Anyways you all look at the 12Z model runs yet? Theyre now in line with my thinkning over the last week. Infact the NOGAPS takes it right into Melbourne,florida and into the Gulf near Tampa. GFS takes it to about 28N and 79W or 30N and 80W and brings close to hurricane force winds along to coast near Merrit Island N....only 50 miles offshore. CMC dont go out more then 72 but is online with a Melbourne target but cant tell if it will brush the coast or go inland,,,,anyways the models adjust a little more to the SW on the runs. I also just to note the CMC did a jog to the WNW or NW during the loop in the first 24 hrs so it might be just a tad to far north on the run which would bring it along with the NOGAPS. Now Stewart mentioned the NOGAPS and (as of now) is disregarding it and says its due to the ridge hanging on alittle longer then the rest of the models, but I dont see that as the case, its just that the ridge will be stronger to the N so it weakens 24 hrs later to that of the GFS (which is still a northern byest model). So since the ridge will be just a tad stronger, it will push Jeanne just alittle faster as you see in the hrs on 36-108. Nogap makes landfall about 12 hrs sooner. So basically what Im saying is that the NOGAPS has a stronger ridge so it moves Jeanne just a tad faster, bringing her onshore. For the first 24 hrs the models are in agreement on a sw-w path with the CMC having a jog N in the 24-36hr. Then a w path.
Im still not saying its going onshore for the best of my knowledge and info but its a timing call. Will Jeanne move 10-12mph starting Thursday afternoon to the west or move 8mph (abouts) to the west. Its timing folks. Anyways hurricane watches should be posted for the northern Bahamas by tomorrow morning, maybe as early as 11pm tonight. BTW I havnt seen the UKMET run yet.


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Ricreig]
      #29659 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:36 PM

The Outlier (12Z NOGAPS) is still outlying, and further west. It takes Jeanne into east central FLorida at 84 hours, and into the extreme NE GOM then into Georgia at 120! Not saying its right, but its another westward shift. Generally, at least in the winter time, the NOGAPS has a right bias. FOrmer Ivan or whatever looks like Matthew soon too. Stay tuned!! CHeers!!

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Ricreig
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Redbird1]
      #29660 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:42 PM

Quote:

I am truly sorry Ric you had to endure this. No right words to say to take away the anguish................I am feeling the same way about insurance rackets and I know being the bullseye is no fun as T-ville got a wallop both times.


Yup neighbor, 'taint fun. Part of life, yes, fun no.

I just wish that we could *do* something, but that is wishfull thinking and totally impossible. Knowing that doesn't make it less frustrating, does it? Funny thing is, except for our friends in the SW coast, Charley really spared us the utter devistation found in the Panhandle with Ivan and the floods affecting our neighbors to the north. No fun for them either but you and I as it turns out, were the lucky ones weren't we?

As to insurance: That is really one of my few 'hot buttons'. Unfortunately and I apologize to the forum, it is off topic even though related to hurricanes so I won't go further on that subject. I understand cursing and swearing is also off topic :

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ivy
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Re: 94L [Re: Allison]
      #29661 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:44 PM

Allison, Beaumont here. Do you think the system will develop
into a storm?


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scottsvb
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #29662 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:45 PM

Yes right now they (think they said) is the outliner on the NOGAPS, but Ill take it over the GFS and even that is a tad sw bringing close to hurricane force winds to the coast. If just 1 more model run to the sw occurs then it willhave more then a 50% chance of coming inland. Also note everyone the short term run. They and the models dont think it will come under 26N from the NHC, couple models 25.8, so if it does go down to say 25.5-25.8N then that is a major difference in WPB and Melbourne getting Hurricane force winds near the coast.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 22 2004 12:49 PM)


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Mooshie-SC
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: scottsvb]
      #29663 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:48 PM

Do you guys think that the sharp turn to the north before reaching SC is
probable or do you see it as being a more gradual curve north taking the storm into NE SC and then back out to sea?


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scottsvb
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Mooshie-SC]
      #29664 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:51 PM

SC isnt out of the question. It can still turn when it gets near the florida coast. Anyone from WPB-NC need to watch this, including the Panhandle of Florida.

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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Ricreig]
      #29665 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:54 PM

Oh I know we just got a touch of the ugliness of cane misery out here................I still choose to live here though........call me strange but the wx negatives up north are bad too like snow and blizzards and killer tornadoes.

Yeah most insurance is about as supportive as wearing a bra backwards............minimal coverage at best.


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Liz L.
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Redbird1]
      #29666 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:57 PM

I know here in St Cloud we have had some gusty winds upwards 15 to 20 mph. but at least its sunny and a bit pleasant. not like the rain we had 2 weeks ago that put 2 ft of water onthe street i live on. it was a horrible site to see.
Lets hope Jeanne doesnt pay us a visit but if she does I am ready. My prayers go out to the people who need all the help to revcover here in our state and other countries.


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Liz L.]
      #29667 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:01 PM

Yes Canadien (CMC) takes it (her) into east coast of FLorida and even the GFS 12Z takes it to its closest approach to the FL east coast (furthest west i've seen it). THat said, let's see if it begins to move to the west!!! Cheers!!

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Allison
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Re: 94L [Re: Ivy]
      #29668 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:02 PM

Quote:

Allison, Beaumont here. Do you think the system will develop
into a storm?




Ivy: there are people much smarter than me who don't know for sure...

However, my uneducated guess is that, if the shear lessens, it has a chance to develop into a TD or TS as it moves into warmer waters in the western GOM.

But regardless of whether it becomes a named storm, it will likely bring rain and a slight breeze to SE Texas...

--------------------
Allison


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storm chaser
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #29669 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:05 PM

Quote:

Yes Canadien (CMC) takes it (her) into east coast of FLorida and even the GFS 12Z takes it to its closest approach to the FL east coast (furthest west i've seen it). THat said, let's see if it begins to move to the west!!! Cheers!!




still learning......can you tell what and where the GFS12z is?


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Mooshie-SC
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: scottsvb]
      #29670 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:08 PM

Scott, where can I find the latest NOGAPS run? The onle one I can find is from last night.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Mooshie-SC]
      #29671 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:15 PM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

Anyone who wants try this for the model runs

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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lois
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: LI Phil]
      #29672 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:17 PM

hoping ed deletes Phil's lyrics too
only fair

..............
officially we are still only tracking 3

lots of rain in S Fla, heavy flooding in some places and more on the way.. almost looks like a weak trof of some kind formed from system in Gulf to rainbands of far away Frances

wierd but watch sats and you may see what I mean


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Joe
Storm Tracker


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Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: Mooshie-SC]
      #29673 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:20 PM

Heres latest NOGAPS it runs at 12/00z...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=thk&dtg=2004092212


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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: lois]
      #29674 - Wed Sep 22 2004 01:33 PM

Did Phil post some dirty song lyrics that we don't know about? I didn't think so.

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