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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far [Re: Frank P]
      #29716 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:47 PM

Words of wisdom Frank P, words of wisdom. I'm tired or reading about kids in a mobile home killed during a hurricane because the parents didn't get out when told. It makes me sick.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... [Re: Allison]
      #29717 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:48 PM

Quote from an e mail......................

"Coastal Weather Research Center Clients,

Ivan has returned to the Gulf as a tropical depression. This system is expected to stay below hurricane force as it moves westward toward the Texas/western Louisiana coastline. BLOHW Model forecasts will begin on this system after a well-defined center is located either by aircraft, weather buoys or satellite.

Hurricane Jeanne is performing a loop in the Atlantic well to the east of Florida. But, Jeanne will soon begin a westward motion toward the southeastern Atlantic coast of the U.S.. There is presently no threat to the Gulf; however, there is a slight risk to eastern Florida.
Most likely, this system will threaten the Carolinas by early next week.
Dr. Keith G. Blackwell
Coastal Weather Research Center
University of South Alabama"


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far [Re: Frank P]
      #29718 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:49 PM

I am still prepared. I have plywood (just took it down), I have a generator, plenty of food, my important stuff is still in plastic containers. And to top it all off I still have 20 gallons of gas still. So I am prepared, just don't like not knowing what she is goingto do. Can you explain that ridge? How does it look?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Trust the NHC [Re: mbfly]
      #29719 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:55 PM

MBfly,

I always get encouraged reading stuff like that, but I WILL ALWAYS TAKE THE WORD OF THE NHC. Jeanne is not a storm anyone in Florida can write off yet...

Stay tuned.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #29720 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:56 PM

NRL still shows 94L as invest and if that doesn't change it will not be classified. They seem to have the heads up in these situations and will put them as "no names" right before they are classified.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: LI Phil]
      #29721 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:56 PM

The insurance comment I made yesterday is a real apprehension but I would be glad to send those thoughts to another forum.... just name it...

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: doug]
      #29722 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:57 PM

It's fine right where it is...I not gonna make people who have been through 6-7 weeks of hell to have to hunt and peck for the proper forum.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #29723 - Wed Sep 22 2004 03:57 PM

If it were to be a central florida hit, what strength do you think it would landfall at?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: And the broad center of 94L is.... [Re: Allison]
      #29724 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:01 PM

Yesterday I noted that it was open on the south side, but there is a circulation center so it is a low in my opinion...it is shy of the criteria for classification however. the thoughts are it will continue to organize as it goes wnw

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: Redbird]
      #29725 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:02 PM

>>> If it were to be a central florida hit, what strength do you think it would landfall at?

I'm in no way shape or form qualified to answer that question. The mets are the ones who can...

If I had to make an educated GUESS, I'd say that (a) it's not going to hit Central Florida and (b) if it did strike there, it would be as a strong I/weak II.

Do not take anything I say seriously. I am a rank amateur who is learning from all the good folks on this site. Always trust the NHC for the final say.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
Re: Tracking 5 systems... [Re: LI Phil]
      #29726 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:02 PM

Thanks for the link LI Phil. I love this site. The information from everyone is very insightful. Easier to understand than the weather guys on TV.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
94L Recon [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #29727 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:03 PM

The recon aircraft was going in to 94L at 1600Z right? I thought we might have seen some data by now....

--------------------
Allison


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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD [Re: Redbird]
      #29728 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:03 PM

From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD:

SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWARD WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT (OR WEST) OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT JEANNE WILL TURN TOWARD FL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND CURVE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. AT EXACTLY WHAT DISTANCE FROM THE FL EAST COAST WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OUR WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS ESP ALG THE COAST AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. WILL LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TEMPORARILY DISPLACED FROM THE STATE. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE ESP ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL AT LEAST DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...POPS AND DIURNAL TEMPS APPEAR TO RETURN TO MORE OF A
CLIMO REGIME.


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #29729 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:04 PM

But you do know a few things..............was leaving this post open for the onsite mets too. Either way I am prepared this time.

Would be nice to sing "Another One Bites The Dust" that is if she were to go out to sea and fall apart.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1299
Coastal Weather Research [Re: mbfly]
      #29730 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:07 PM

When I worked at the Moss Point International Paper Company several years ago we paid USA's Coastal Weather Research about 3k a year as our private consultant for their severe weather and hurricane forecasting capabilities. Their BLOHW model nailed Georges back in 1998 and had it hitting Gulfport 3 days out, which was dead on... it was very costly to shut down a papermill and we needed to get as much information as possible to help us plan for that event...I got know Dr. Bill William on a first name basis as he came out to the mill several times to meet with us, but best of all I could call and talk to him to get personal updates any time we were threatened by hurricanes... It was so cool having them as our hurricane consultants during Danny and Georges.... they do such an OUTSTANDING job.....

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: Redbird]
      #29731 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:07 PM

Quote:

But you do know a few things..............was leaving this post open for the onsite mets too. Either way I am prepared this time.

Would be nice to sing "Another One Bites The Dust" that is if she were to go out to sea and fall apart.




That would be a lot better than singing "We Will Rock You"

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: Fletch]
      #29732 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:10 PM

Now that works for CA residents.....................as long as it is jeanne that bites the dust rather than my darn house again or that of the hurricane buddies on here...................

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD [Re: Staggy]
      #29733 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:10 PM

How long has Jeanne been with us now???

--------------------
doug


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: 94L Recon [Re: Allison]
      #29734 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:11 PM

URNT11 KNHC 222000
97779 20004 40300 89600 30100 12018 08513 /3183
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 01


i think this flight is the one headed south to 94l....don't have far to go....


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD [Re: doug]
      #29735 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:12 PM

A good 9 days but Phil would be better able to answer that............she just overstayed her welcome!

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