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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD [Re: doug]
      #29736 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:13 PM

Quote:

How long has Jeanne been with us now???




This was the first tracking on Jeanne:

21 GMT 09/13/04 16.0N 60.4W 30MPH 1010 Tropical Depression

--------------------
Allison


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Allison
Weather Guru


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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: 94L Recon [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29737 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:17 PM


The pressure at this buoy south of Louisiana has been "falling rapidly" for the last two readings... hmmm....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42041

--------------------
Allison


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: 94L Recon [Re: Allison]
      #29738 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:19 PM

Well, we made it through Ivan!!! Just thankful to have a place of work (1 block from Mobile Bay) to come back to. We live in North Mobile County and I stayed up for the whole storm. Lost two huge trees in the back yard which uprooted some of the piping; we will probably not have any pecans in the orchard this year; lost several more smaller trees; lost shingles on the house; lost insulation from south end of house, as 2 months ago a bad storm took out the north and south end of the eaves on my house (can very much empathize with the insurance co. issue as after 5% wind/hail and depreciation our total came to -125.00); three sheds; and an old basketball goal did some writing on our truck. We had parked the vehicles in one direction, then Ivan turned. This is the first storm I have personally been through since Freddie in '79, but I know in Citronelle, we got at least 100 mph winds. But, we had a shelter (school) across the street with our bags packed and ready to run if necessary. The shelter lost a very long and very new walkway which was built with contributions. Our public schools will open Monday (27th) if they all have power and are in good enough condition. I think everyone in our office now has power!! But, I just walked outside and (we have been having beautiful weather the past few days) the son of Ivan's clouds are just overhanging in the skies and very still (very eerie). Thank you to this site for all of the very helpful information you provide. And, we have been very very blessed considering.

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #29739 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:24 PM

Anybody notice how much Jeanne is getting her act together? And she's moving southwest...this can't be good news.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29740 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:27 PM

CAT II AND IT IS ON TRACK

--------------------
doug


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Brad
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29741 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:30 PM

The southwest movement is right on track up to this point. NHC predicted she would move to 26.0/68.9, moving more or less SW, and she's right about there.

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29742 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:31 PM

Well Jeanne has to roll through a southwesterly bearing on the way around to her northwesterly projection... let's all hope she just keeps a'swinging on around and ends up more northerly...

Doesn't look like that will be the case though... all the 18Z model runs seem to be complete, with a definite trend of the models being westward, toward the east coast of FL.

AdmittedHacker
-----------------------------
(still no witty phrase to insert here)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29743 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:31 PM

Quote:

Anybody notice how much Jeanne is getting her act together? And she's moving southwest...this can't be good news.




I was hoping for a quicker turn to the West vs the SW she is currently on. The good news is that the convection isn't too strong. (for now) But the outflow looks decent. The further South she goes the harder it will be to turn her out to sea.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: doug]
      #29744 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:38 PM

Whew, finally back after taking a short break for college/pro/fantasy football. Now that Jeanne has decided to swing back this way I figured I better check in.

Her eye has definitely gotten easier to see on the sat loops, but I think it was always there, just was getting covered by clouds a bit. Like was stated in the 11am discussion. She appears to be on track as it looks like she's jogged just a bit more SW than S in the last few frames. Though, like has been the pattern this season, we'll have to see if it's a wobble or a trend. Now we just get to wait for a turn to the W, then NW, then N. The ridging to the north and northwest of her is clearly visible, and how strong/when it pushes out to the east will determine when she gets steered northward.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Fletch]
      #29745 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:38 PM

recon just about to 94L..... dropping in alt...

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #29746 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:40 PM

Quote:

MBfly,

I always get encouraged reading stuff like that, but I WILL ALWAYS TAKE THE WORD OF THE NHC. Jeanne is not a storm anyone in Florida can write off yet...

Stay tuned.




Actually, I was more interested in the part that said " Ivan has returned to the Gulf as a tropical depression."

Has a hurricane/TS ever done this before ?............ gone inland that far and then looped back around and (almost) redeveloped to strike once again Ivan is now older than dirt -- time for him to DIE !


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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #29747 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:41 PM

Quote:

recon just about to 94L..... dropping in alt...





Is 94L the "son of Ivan in the gulf?"

All of these storms are getting me dizzy....


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Trust the NHC [Re: mbfly]
      #29748 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:43 PM

I AGREE 100%. I KNOW YOU ALL IN FL KNOW WHAT IT FEELS LIKE TO HAVE STORMS BACK TO BACK. BUT, I NEVER THOUGHT IN A MILLION YEARS THAT Ivan WOULD COME BACK INTO MY BACK YARD (GOM) AGAIN.

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29749 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:48 PM

"And she's moving southwest...this can't be good news."
_________________________________________________

I think I'm gonna be sick. ..
and I just PM'd you with such a nice compliment too.

Maybe if you all start sucking in reeeaaalllyy hard up there in Long Island you could stop Jeanne from going any further south. OK?


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #29750 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:50 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


on left and upper left under atlantic.....should help with who is who.....


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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: Kent]
      #29751 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:50 PM

Maybe she will just keep spinning in circles?

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: Kent]
      #29752 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:50 PM

5pm out on Jeanne. Not good. We are back in the darn cone again. I don't like when they say "should" stay off the coast.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00? [Re: Kent]
      #29753 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:51 PM

>>> Maybe if you all start sucking in reeeaaalllyy hard up there in Long Island you could stop Jeanne from going any further south.

We up here ON Long Island have been sucking for a really long time!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00 [Re: LI Phil]
      #29754 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:52 PM

This is just too close for comfort...

Jeanne 5 Day

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #29755 - Wed Sep 22 2004 04:53 PM

...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/4. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FORECAST TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND
THE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT
EASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK OF Frances. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING
OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MORE WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 60-72 HOURS....
Ridge is confusing NHC computers again !

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2004 04:55 PM)


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