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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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ErinAndOpal95
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Loc: Pensacola, Florida
Back up after 7 Days down! [Re: teal61]
      #29776 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:28 PM

I guess I should change my username to ErinOpalAndIvan now. I help my folks find their house in Pensacola this weekend. You can't believe how bad it is until you have seen it first hand. Most of the place is still primitive (no water, no power, no news and lots of frustration).

Sorry for posting here in the middle of Jeanne talk. I am starving for news.


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Brad
Unregistered




Recon [Re: LI Phil]
      #29777 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:28 PM

Recon has found a weak SW (230 degrees) wind in the partial remnants of Ivan. So an upgrade/reclassification before 11 pm is not out of the question.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: From The TWO.... [Re: teal61]
      #29778 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:29 PM

sorry for the double post... Teal61 beat me to it...

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Redbird
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Re: Well Well......... [Re: Frank P]
      #29779 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:30 PM

Not luck in your case Frank.................good planning is what keeps your forecasts quite accurate.

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LI Phil
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2 Thoughts/Points [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #29780 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:31 PM

#1. I cannot believe NHC would reclassify Ivan...haven't the people who've been through Ivan1 had enough without worrying about Ivan2 in the GOM.

#2. Granted that no watches have been posted, but with "Ivan" and Jeanne as close to the US as they are, wouldn't you think they'd be going to intermediate advisories?

Dems my two cents.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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teal61
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Shawn... [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #29782 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:32 PM

All you have to do is look at the sat loops (Frank posted a link to a good one earlier) to know that there is a closed circulation out there. Bouy reports support a closed center also. It's there and it's very likely Ivan will be back shortly.

Oh yeah, Joe B is da man, this time anyway.

West winds found....

URNT11 KNHC 222115
97779 21154 40266 88700 02700 23015 25222 /0009 42215
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 07

;


URNT11 KNHC 222128
97779 21284 40261 89300 02800 28013 25208 /0010 42615
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 08

I had no doubts anyway.

Looks to be about 1008mb or so.

Edited by teal61 (Wed Sep 22 2004 05:36 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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track [Re: teal61]
      #29783 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:35 PM

wow.....just watched TWC on Ivan......they showed last 5-7 days.....ivan came ashore....went ne.... got to western nc and seem it wanted to go see his sis coming up from south and he made a run for the east coast of nc...while most convection left to the ne.... once he got to the atlantic....knew he had to go south.... passed REAL close to jeanne off florida and they split....one went east, one went west... now known as 94l.... it has crossed Ivan's old path.....and its just a matter of time it should arrive in texas in few days....but looking at some sats... i see more on nnw spin towards new orleans than west.....just waiting on recon....first day of fall....could there be 4 named storms? it will be Ivan if it forms!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Brad
Unregistered




Re: Shawn... [Re: teal61]
      #29784 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:37 PM

Well recon definitely has found a closed low now, unless I'm really misunderstanding the data---but from the satellites, I wasn't convinced....thought it might just be a mid-level circulation.

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LI Phil
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JB [Re: Brad]
      #29785 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:41 PM

>>> Oh yeah, Joe B is da man, this time anyway.

Did you see his afternoon post?

Frank-I don't like Canadians!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Joe
Storm Tracker


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Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00 [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #29786 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:41 PM

Short term forecast for Jeanne seems more certain, but after 84 hours all bets are off. Heres my take on forecast... High pressure to north and northwest of Jeanne will allow her to move WSW-Westward next 84 hours or so, this seems reasonable given that a trough and area of low pressure over the plains states will move NE into Canada allowing the ridge to the east to elongate blocking Jeanne from moving north. Although as trough pulls further east this may allow for ridge to weaken and take Jeanne on a more NW or north track. I feel confident that there will be a NW-N movement the question is when? Its really a timing issue that will likley be watching this weekend as it moves into northern Bahama islands.

Strength...Jeanne looks as though it will battle with some dry air basically all around although shear will remain somewhat in check through the short term, Long term shear looks to increase from the SW allowing for a steadying or slight weakening. I like NHC strength forecast but could make CAT 3 status for a time during next 84 hours or so.


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Frank P
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First outerbands approach MS coast and NO [Re: teal61]
      #29787 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM

Link shows the NO radar loop and the first outer bands approaching the MS coast and NO associated with Ivan part deaux..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

radar still shows the concentrated rain band associated with this system in the GOM moving mostly N to NNW


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Keith234
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Re: From The TWO.... [Re: Frank P]
      #29788 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM

Sorry if this has been already posted, don't have the time to read all the posts. Anyway I noticed that the models were making the Azores ridge up to Omega blocking strength a couple days ago and that's what it's doing, the GFS nailed it. This is some nightmarish forecast first of all with Jeanne, everything is going to come to a near halt because of this blocking upstream. Model guidance is suggesting that the storm will move westward how much is a variable, after it's done with it's loop, then it will start to recurve (another variable angle of recurving) and the motion of the storm yet another variable. Now you might be saying "well Keith we always have many variables with hurricanes", yes your totally right but to some extent. The placement of these upper level features is a real pain in the neck when you have upstream blocking.

The remnants of "Ivan" are back from the dead. This storm will form some type of a hybird system with convection reserved to the north portion of the storm. The ULL in that area of Ivan will be moving in "retro" as I like to say and will prob collaspe the steering currents once in nears the Texas coast, sort of a Ginger. No matter how strong this system might be, the collaspe of the steering currents will insure a lot of rain and flooding along the landfall area. The Texas Coast should put up a bear watch as Frank P. says.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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SoonerShawn
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Re: Shawn... [Re: teal61]
      #29789 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM

I'm gonna stop watching the local weather. They said they were in there but couldn't find the circulation to be closed and maybe it would be classified tomorrow. I figured if they didn't find it now they wouldn't find it later tonight,either.

I should just trust you guys from now on...lol


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teal61
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Re: track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #29790 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:42 PM

I'm wondering about that movement. Looking at the latest zoomed in loop, there is some convection building just north of the LLCc and I'm wondering if the center is being pulled up under that convection. Or is it a true movement to the NNW?

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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


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Re: From The TWO.... [Re: teal61]
      #29791 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:44 PM

Does anyone have a guess what the chances of "the son of Ivan" or "Ivan" coming back to hit generally the same area again? Has this ever happened before? Just wondering since (like I said) my office is 1 block from Mobile Bay. Just concerns me when they include "North Central Gulf".

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Re: Jeanne animated path [Re: LI Phil]
      #29792 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:46 PM

To ease the wait (and frustration), here's another Skeetobite exclusive: (made this while testing animated "actual" paths versus NHC 3 & 5 day projections... interesting stuff coming soon)

http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/jeanne_flash.htm

requires Flash plug-in. The page should prompt you automatically if your browser needs it.

BTW- the windfields for hurricane (red) and tropical storm (blue) force winds are to scale in this image.

Edited by SkeetoBite (Wed Sep 22 2004 05:53 PM)


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Allison
Weather Guru


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Re: 2 Thoughts/Points [Re: LI Phil]
      #29794 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:47 PM

Quote:

#1. I cannot believe NHC would reclassify Ivan...haven't the people who've been through Ivan1 had enough without worrying about Ivan2 in the GOM.





I understand that the name "Ivan" is a sensitive subject... but it really doesn't matter what the thing is called... It's still there...


Quote:

#2. Granted that no watches have been posted, but with "Ivan" and Jeanne as close to the US as they are, wouldn't you think they'd be going to intermediate advisories?





I agree... If 94L gets classified, and watches/warnings go up at 11:00PM (or even later), most people won't know until in the morning....

--------------------
Allison


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


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94L and the Front [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #29795 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:49 PM

I was wondering all along about how far west 94L could get considering the front that is poised to come through in a couple of days. I didn't say anything because I didn't want to throw out one of those stupid ideas I get quite often.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: 2 Thoughts/Points [Re: Allison]
      #29796 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:49 PM

The NHC is back to their super conservative hurricane rating's. Sometimes I just don't get them?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points [Re: LI Phil]
      #29797 - Wed Sep 22 2004 05:50 PM

LI Phil, That would be a wonderful thing for them to do. My office and home are soooo tired of me and my weather. They think I'm a "weather freak" and my boss tells me it's worse than cocaine. But, like you said, we in the GOM really do need to be informed about this. We have been so busy trying to get back to normal (not yet) and our local guys are playing all of the systems off like "nothing for us to worry about". I think they just don't want to scare us before they really know what's going on. Although, they all look very tired after staying on 24/7 with TV and the radios kicked in and had the news on the radio instead of regular programming for those with no power. PLEASE Ivan GO AWAY AND STAY AWAY!!!!!

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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