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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Brett]
      #30022 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:48 PM

I dont get the FSU ens,, that is a closed run for NHC and FSU and other clients. Jason and or Clark could answer that.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne track [Re: Ricreig]
      #30023 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:49 PM

Quote:

Thanks Skeetobite, now I can get some sleep....till about 5 am ::)




You KNOW the track is farther West. Wasn't appropriately adjust to maintain "continuity", whateverthehellthatis

Read 11pm Discussion


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Pros on this board [Re: scottsvb]
      #30024 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:51 PM

I would trust your best guess over most other folks facts. And that's a fact.


Can I get a co-signer on that?


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Brett
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Re: Pros on this board [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30025 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:52 PM

/signs.

Man, the 25n line is getting awfully close.

--------------------
South Florida


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LI Phil
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Re: Pros on this board [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30026 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:00 AM

I second that emotion! (more bonus points)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30027 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:08 AM

Quote:

Ricreig,,I think thats great what you do. There are better forecasters then me out there. I get storms wrong and learn from them,,heheheh. Anyways keep up the great work you do also.


Thanks for the kudos, but it you that deserve them and the others in this forum that make it work so well and help the less educated members of this forum, such as myself, understand a very complex situation. If I have any worth at all here is the fact I have lived this weather, experienced its fury and seen the death and destruction. Most of our members are too young to have lived through Camille, Betsy and their ilk, and need to rely on us old-farts experience to help guide them go good decisions, reducing the number of bad decisions the inexperienced often make without guidance. I rely on you and others like you to guide me and I try to translate that to "Yes, you *should* evacuate' when asked by the many that have never seen a storm up close and personal. People like Colleen, not a pro forecaster, has great skill at asking the right questions at the right time. Phil (when his mind isnt in the gutter Does a good job keeping the rest of us 'inline' and on topic. Mike, John and Ed do a fantastic job running, repairing, programming and forecasting . It is quite possible that because of this board, lives have been saved. I like to think we're all a team....it takes us all doing our own thing but working for a common cause.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Pros on this board [Re: LI Phil]
      #30029 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:10 AM

What do the bonus points add up to? A trip to .....

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30030 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:15 AM

Anxious to get the 00Z model runs.. Please post as soon as you can once they are in.. I know Scott is great about that..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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LI Phil
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Re: Pros on this board [Re: danielw]
      #30031 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 AM

>>> Phil (when his mind isnt in the gutter Does a good job keeping the rest of us 'inline' and on topic.

Hey!

See, my mind is always in the gutter, I just need to keep it focused...know you mean well...where's the damn rabbit?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ticka1
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Re: Skeeobite [Re: danielw]
      #30032 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 AM

Your map has Ivan going right over my house in Mont Belvieu. I love your maps.

Now what does one do to prepare for a TS? Just curious?

--------------------
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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Skeeobite [Re: ticka1]
      #30033 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:22 AM

Ticka, got boots. Ice, water, all things put up high- 4 foot high or better. If the water starts coming up, get off the floor. Last resort go to the attic. Make sure you can reach you water supply and some food. Put it near the attic access, and grab it on the way up. Don't forget the cellphone.
These are last resort ideas but Tropical Storms in Texas are always huge. But then isn't everything in Texas. Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail.
Life preservers are great to have around, just in case !

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 AM)


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Ricreig
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Re: Skeeobite [Re: ticka1]
      #30034 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 AM

Quote:

Your map has Ivan going right over my house in Mont Belvieu. I love your maps.

Now what does one do to prepare for a TS? Just curious?


Yes, Skeetobite's maps are great and keep a lot of questions like 'will it hit me' from ever being asked as well as reminding us that a storm isn't just a point but an area.

As to what to do to prepare. First, prepare for it as you would a hurricane because they can and do often become hurricanes, often just before they get to where you are. Second, keep informed.

Any tropical storm is well capable of toppling trees, disrupting power, water, sewage and traffic controls. People do die because of them, trees fall on them or their cars, they spawn tornados, floods and disrupt lives. While you usually won't have to evacuate unless you are in a flood prone area, and the wind is usually not damaging of your home or shelter, it is still capable of requiring you to have non-perishable food, ice, candles, batteries, flashlights and a gallon of drinkable water, per person, per day. You might be without power for days or a week or more so prepare yourself by filling up your car fuel tank, ensuring your standby generator works and has fuel and oil in case you are without power. In other words, do the same stuff you would for a hurricane. It doesn't matter too much if your power is off because of a TS or from a Hurricane, it's off, your food will rot, your water could be contaminated....you get the idea, I hope.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
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Re: Skeeobite [Re: Ricreig]
      #30035 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:31 AM

I could be very wrong, and I hope I am, but I think he's having a spot of fun witchall...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Clark
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30036 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:33 AM

FSU Superensemble is restricted to the NHC, certain people at FSU, and anyone willing to pony up a ton of cash (think five digits).

Jeanne (et al.) synopsis...

Jeanne is currently along the south-southeast edge of a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered near the Delmarva peninsula. A gradual westward turn should begin to commence shortly. A vigorous longwave trough is currently situated over the Rockies but beginning to progress eastward as a ridge builds in just off of the northwest Pacific coast. A weak vorticity maximum is noted in northern Mississippi rotating along the western periphery of the eastern ridge, while a digging trough is analyzed along the eastern periphery of the ridge. The first piece of energy grabbed Karl and turned it northward; it may turn back towards the east for a short period of time before the next piece of energy, currently diving off of the eastern part of Canada, picks it up and turns it into the maritimes. A weak (and weakening) ridge is noted in the NW Caribbean with an upper low in the Bay of Campeche; this is establishing a region of upper-level diffluence around Ivan, enhancing the convection (but, at the same time, the upper low is providing some shear) and allowing the storm to return from the dead.

There are two scenarios that I can see playing out with Jeanne and the current set up.

The first keeps the ridge well-entrenched for the most part where it is now, allowing the storm to progress further westward into north central Florida before recurving along the periphery of the ridge. This is similar to the Frances path, although if this pans out, it is more likely the storm does not re-enter the Gulf at all and instead rides through Florida into Georgia somewhere east of Tallahassee, perhaps near Valdosta. In my opinion, this is the least likely of the two scenarios but feasible under the following situation: the piece of energy riding around the north side of the ridge is rather strong and could cause the ridge to become cut off -- essentially setting up an omega block situation. In any case, the ridge should erode a bit on the western side, allowing the storm to begin to turn near shore.

The other scenario does not involve the ridge becoming cut off from the flow and setting up a blocking pattern. This follows with the Canadian storm diving south, but just enough to pick up Karl and not enough to create a blocking situation. As it picks up Karl and the trough in the Rockies progresses eastward, the ridge should continue to move eastward, perhaps weakening slightly. This would allow Jeanne to travel westward initially, then turn somewhere offshore of Florida and affect the Carolinas. I feel this is the more likely of the two scenarios and would result in a target area between Cape Hatteras and Savannah.

Bottom line -- progressive pattern, Carolinas (with a close call for Florida); blocky pattern, Florida. I feel it's somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 likely for the former, but reserve the right to change that. I do not feel that south Florida is in line for a landfall and also feel that the region from Jacksonville to Savannah will likely not see a direct impact but could see tropical storm force winds in either scenario. This isn't good for me, as I've got something to attend in Jacksonville Sunday night!

A good marker to get a grasp for this storm is the band of dry air on water vapor imagery that currently extends from Jeanne NW to Jacksonville and Memphis and onward around the ridge. This is essentially the periphery of the ridge as it stands, and also an inhibiting factor on the strength of Jeanne. Warmer waters lie ahead, although so do waters churned up by Frances. Shear should remain relatively low, but the dry air is keeping the storm in check and the overall structure appears to be a fairly stable one. The current intensity, give or take a few mph either way, is a good bet in the short-term with some slight weakening likely as the storm nears shore. Time frame we're looking at is late Sunday into early Monday, depending on which scenario pans out. Of course, further north equates to a later time.

My track forecast is similar to the last run of the GFDL, albeit a few miles further offshore, and is similar in nature to the NHC forecast. I do not have much to find fault with in the NHC forecast as-is, but can see the potential for the second scenario to pan out. We'll know more in a day or day and a half as to which way this is going to pan out; thankfully, things appear a bit clearer than they did in the past with this one.

And to think -- all at once, we have a loopy storm affecting the U.S. mainland, another loopy storm that has already affected the mainland redeveloping and doing something that is very likely unprecedented in the Atlantic basin, one (finally) well-behaved fish spinning Cape Verde storm, and a case where a storm and a disturbance are interacting, with the circulation associated with the storm and the convection associated with the disturbance combining forces to result in one overall system. And this is just the midst of the season -- let's not even go back into what's already taken place this year, nor look ahead to a potential Gulf/NW Caribbean season in the next month to month and a half.

Final word on Jeanne -- everyone from Palm Beach, FL northward to the Delmarva, due to the track potential, needs to watch where this thing is going. The highest probability areas are noted above, but no one is clear yet and regions not expected to see a direct landfall may likely see tropical storm force winds nonetheless.

Good night everyone...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Skeeobite [Re: ticka1]
      #30037 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:35 AM

Anyone can get the oz model runs. First couple are in. GFS has Jeanne moving thru the northern bahamas then just about where Frances made landfall, she turns NW along the coast. So there are like multiple landfall points....just to note though, the GFS has little movement over the first 24 hrs or movement w rightaway near 26N,, and its already around 25.5, so if you add that into the model it makes landfall near WPB and heads inland towards Lake Okech,,,and up the state. NOGAPS is simular to its 12Z run taking it thru the bahamas and making landfall at WPB,,hmhmhm it takes it along 25.5N-26N then a wnw movement while nearing the florida coast, then to Sarasota exiting into the gulf then moving NW towards the Panhandle. CMC takes Jeanne just north of the bahamas and into Cocoa Beach and turns it NW just inland moving up the state. Note on this though it quickly moves Jeanne about 280-290dg after 8am this morning, I doubt that until Friday afternoon. So I think its just a tad too far north but its possible.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ticka [Re: ticka1]
      #30038 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:39 AM

My suggestions were for a worst case scenario, as I haven't been in a Texas flood since 1979. I remember a lot of Tropical Storms going ashore in Texas and spinning down, while dropping huge amounts of rain. Texas is beautiful, and you can see for miles, but that also means it's nearly flat.
Richard posted a message the other day from the Cayman Isles. It was quite an abrupt awakening to me. I knew the surge was high there, but didn't have a clue as to how high.


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Clark
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One last thing... [Re: Clark]
      #30039 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:42 AM

And it's not a particularly good thing...

00z GFS is out.

It calls for landfall near Palm Beach in 3 days' time (00z Sunday, 8p Sat. ET) with a slow traversing of the east coast of Florida up to St. Augustine, where it barely scrapes back into water before moving up to Charleston, SC, where it -- get this -- scrapes the coast all thr way through the Outer Banks before exiting off of the coast and heading up towards the tip of Massachusetts. In three days, it is expected to traverse essentially the entire SE US coast. Thankfully, the heaviest rain and wind would remain offshore in this scenario the entire way, but it's still not a pleasant scenario to think about.

Looking at the progs, the GFS believes the system in the midwest will begin to lift as it approaches the Great Lakes but have enough of an influence on Jeanne to slow it, turn it northward along the coast, and just barely pick it up, mainly as a function of not entirely building the ridge back in behind it very well. It's a believeable scenario, but one we'll have to wait to see if it pans out.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LI Phil
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Outta here (yeah!) [Re: danielw]
      #30040 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:44 AM

Last post tonight...

I haven't been in a Texas flood since 1979.

That's either Stevie Ray or ZZT but I'm not gonna look it up right now.

'Nite all, thanks for the kind words...you guys rule! Also thank Mike C as he and bro John established this site 10 years ago! Everyone be safe and we'll all face this stuff tomorrow!

2004: The Season From Hell

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Matt033
Unregistered




Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: danielw]
      #30041 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:01 AM

Ok hurricane Ivan, one of the 6th most powerful freaking hurricane to form ever in the Atlantic basin. Moving over the leewards,Jamaica,Caymens causing hundreds of deaths. In the worst damage since hurricane Georges of 1998...Which went over the northern islands. This hurricane was also the most powerful hurricane in histroy or close to it for the central Caribbean west of 70 west. It was stronger then Gilbert, of 1988. Which hit Jamaica, at around the 960s millibar range then took off to the lowest pressure ever recorded in a Atlantic basin system(888 millibars with a on the recon paper is 885 unoffically). Huricane Allen was the third lowest pressure with 899 millibars. The second which is the 1935 labar day hurricane that hit southern Florida. Killing some where around 400 people.(Pressure 892 millibars) Reports of over 200 mph winds. Ivan went up into the Gulf of Mexico as a cat5 after slaming Cuba. In weaken some as the water was slightly cooler. Then it hit a eddy. Which made it at least 145 mph tropical cyclone if not more. The northeastern Gulf of Mexico had water temperatures of between 80 to 82 degrees. With a low level of "Tcp" meaning the warm water was not deep. Ivan was moving below 10 to 12 mph over that area. So yes no wonder it kind of started losing some of its punch. Then Ivan made landfall on Gulf shores as 130 mph tropical cyclone with pressure of 943 millibars. I could beat against that in say it was some where closer to 135 to 140 mph. This system then flooded a third of the united states(East coast) With a giant Tornadoe outbreak with over 106 tornadoes. Cities flooded to the ground. Then the system became extratropical(Extratropical cyclone/depression) It raced across the Atlantic. In ended up on the other side. The system we see now was a 500 millibar vort max that split off the southern quad of extratropical cyclone Ivan. It was a cold core system. It really had nothing to do with Ivan what so freaking ever. It moved down the coast like a bat out of hell on the back side of a developing area of high pressure. The same high that is stopping Jeanne from going out to sea. This high is going to pull Jeanne back into the Coast. This little 500 millibar vort max(Cold core system) Moved across Florida developed a well defined LLCC. Then developed into a tropical cyclone in the Gulf fo Mexico. This system has nothing to do with Ivan what so ever! It should be named "Matthew" It is its own tropical cyclone! If you look at histroy you can see system like tropical depresson 6 being renamed tropical depression 7! While it was the same system in should of been tropical depression 6 because it was from the same system. But in this case it was different.

The NHC screwed up in broke there own rule!

Little Lisa!!! Yeah that little system that was ate tonight be invest 93L. Which was 3 times the size of lisa! Lisa fall apart/was distroyed by 93L. There is no reason what so freaking ever to give the name Lisa to 93L. It should be the "N" storm if the NHC would do there goddamn job! It really freaking pisses me off!

There was also a system in May that formed in the Caribbean. That system hit Hati causing thousands of deaths. It had a clearly defined LLCC on both Visible in Quickscats. It most likely was a tropical storm. Another freak up by are friends working at the NHC!

Another system that formed in the Gulf in mid June. This system had a clearly defiend LLCC with deep covnection for a time. This system also hit the Gulf coast of the united states. Did the NHC even give a flying hell about it freaking no!!!

End of Rant!

(Is this all right to have here)


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


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Not again... [Re: Clark]
      #30042 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:05 AM

These "wait and see" scenarios are starting to really stress me out. *If* this storm comes ashore along the Treasure/Space Coast of Florida, were looking at landfall sometime Friday, right? Well that only gives ppl 2 days to get ready. Lots of folks have taken down shutters here in Vero Beach. Stores still don't have an abundance of supplies. I went and bought a propane stove last week and I had to drive all over town before I found ONE at Sears. Even the grocery stores are still understocked. I am a teacher in St Lucie County and we haven't even gone back to school yet -- no classes since Sept 2nd! Guess I will wake up at 5am to see if I need to get the shutter brigade up and going again!

Edited by cjzydeco (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:11 AM)


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