Ricreig
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One question, What happens is both pieces of energy redevelop into Ts's? Would we have #1, #2. 
That may be the best question of the night. I have never heard of it happening (like a lot that has happened this year)
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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scottsvb
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You know that is a good question,,,,what happends say like down in Hispaniola where a storm splits 1 piece reforms a center in the carribean and another up towards bermuda,,,,,#1 and 2#???? Hmmm maybe they should of just continued with the new names. They cant just say they are keeping the name cause if they do,, they dont know if the other will develop and that would cause a real good question. Anyways Im tired and off for the night, I dont even make sense to myself but ill post this up for the hell of it. GN
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danielw
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No, you hit it right on the head. I didn't know what it was, so I went to the glossary.
Kind of like the last song you hear before you get out of the car. You sing it all day. Now will be stuck in my head all night.
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Ricreig
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No, you hit it right on the head. I didn't know what it was, so I went to the glossary.
Kind of like the last song you hear before you get out of the car. You sing it all day. Now will be stuck in my head all night.
Fortunately, give the hour such as it is, it will be a short night  Sleep welll my friend.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 06:17 AM)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Now will be stuck in my head all night.
Sorry bout that! But thanks for helping me get past the acronym barrier so at least I can have a clue what the heck they're talking about when I read the disscussions!
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ricreig
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The threat to Florida from Jeanne has increased tonight as the models are starting to shift further west and not show a northerly turn. Unfortunately, this means the Florida East coast from West Palm up to Jacksonville (and maybe further southward) needs to be watching Jeanne a lot closer. The rest of the southeast coast north of Florida also still needs to watch, as Jeanne has been performing poorly with the models.
Even though this discussion from Pg 1 is as of 11pm, it is even more true at 5am. The latest Official forecast now has Jeaneed inland about Cocooa going up the coast inland and out again near Jax. Intensity is somewhat unclear but should be somewhere around 95 which is definitely Cat-II and conditions do not exclude the possibility of Cat-III at landfallk. Because a large portion of the storm is forecast to remain over water, intensity should not reduce much on its' trip over land. If there is a consolation, this forecast does at least imply much of the affecter area will be on the 'weaker', West side of the track, except for the coast of course which will experience the eye wall or part of it. This is one forecast I hope changes back to the East quickly....we're running out of time to avoid another Hurricane in already hard hit coastal East Central Florida.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 09:32 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looks to me like you guys in east Florida should be preparing once more for some tropical weather! What a season it has been so far for Florida. If Jeanne goes inland then it looks like she will recurve just after landfall and remain just inland while going up towards South Carolina, remaining a powerful system throughout. Intensity forecast could be a bit low i feel. Reckon Jeanne will be a Cat 3 by Friday. Sorry guys.
Regards
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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WXMAN RICHIE
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ricreig
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Looks to me like you guys in east Florida should be preparing once more for some tropical weather! What a season it has been so far for Florida. If Jeanne goes inland then it looks like she will recurve just after landfall and remain just inland while going up towards South Carolina, remaining a powerful system throughout. Intensity forecast could be a bit low i feel. Reckon Jeanne will be a Cat 3 by Friday. Sorry guys.
I learned a long time to not kill the messager. It isn't your fault wherever it goes.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.
While I agree with your last sentence, so far there is nothing to support your first one. The current 5am forecast from the shows Cocoa Beach as the landfall and an exit just S of JAX or St Augustine....that isn't a transvers across the state. Don't make this worse than it is shaping up to be. If you are referring to models, the *official* forecast specifically mention that the models are performing poorly with this storm. I will admit though that its' present path will bring hurricane force winds to your area and that is definitelly not needed in your already hard hit area. Sometimes I forget my own caveat that landfall is not a point, but an area. Also, I can't deny the possibility that transversal could occur if the turn to the NW doesnt occur as predicted. Let's hope that possibility doesn't happen either because that would put Tampa and points in between at risk also.
That said, I can't think of much worse of a forecast for East and North Central Florida residents for this Saturday evening and Sunday other than we *could* be on the NE side of a Cat-III instead of the NW side. From the North and Central coast, I can't think of a worse forecast especially on top of the already badly damaged communities on the coast, and new communities will join the list of devastated or badly damaged areas if this forecast verifies. While there is time for conditions to change that affect the forecast area, time is running out.. At the moment, the 5am forecast says the storm is moving slightly south of due west about 3mph. This allows time for it to gain strength and conditions are somewhat favorable for that to happen. However, if it goes slow enough, it also gives time for the trough expected to move in from the Western US to move East and possibly affect the storm and move it North sooner.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:23 AM)
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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Not again!!!! I have been trying to get my house ready for sale all summer to move out to NZ. I don't think Florida wants me to leave, she is trying to keep me here. Or maybe chase me away.
Anyhow, I am near the Daytona area, so once again we need to prepare to be hit pretty hard. My son has missed 13 days thus far from school from and . Will they ever get to finish the school year here?
There is always tomorrow, these tracks seem to keep changing with Jeanne and are not very reliable. We will hang tight and keep our fingers crossed that she stays more to the right.
MaryAnn
Quote:
Looks to me like you guys in east Florida should be preparing once more for some tropical weather! What a season it has been so far for Florida. If Jeanne goes inland then it looks like she will recurve just after landfall and remain just inland while going up towards South Carolina, remaining a powerful system throughout. Intensity forecast could be a bit low i feel. Reckon Jeanne will be a Cat 3 by Friday. Sorry guys.
Regards
Rich B
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Ricreig
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Not again!!!! I have been trying to get my house ready for sale all summer to move out to NZ. I don't think Florida wants me to leave, she is trying to keep me here. Or maybe chase me away.
Anyhow, I am near the Daytona area, so once again we need to prepare to be hit pretty hard. My son has missed 13 days thus far from school from and . Will they ever get to finish the school year here?
There is always tomorrow, these tracks seem to keep changing with Jeanne and are not very reliable. We will hang tight and keep our fingers crossed that she stays more to the right.
MaryAnn
For you guys in Ormand Beach, it really does look bleak this morning given the forecast. I can only say that IF this track verifies and if the intensity does increase, I would seriously consider the option to leave Ormond Beach, assuming that the 'Beach' part of your address implies on the island. I hope and pray for all of us that this track does NOT verify and that it does move back out to the East, but time doesn't permit holding ones breath. Action needs to commence now before it becomes too late. I think you'd agree, rather too early than not early enough when a strong storm is involved, especially one basically aimed right at you. Good luck neighbor!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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I was looking forward to the schools reopening in St. Lucie County next Monday. With the heavy rains and subsequent flooding here this week it wasn't a sure thing in my mind that would happen. The storm that was and is really dumped on us for two days this week. 7.25 inches at my house and yes I did empty the gauge before and during the rain.
The question I have now is for advice on what to do with the many thousands of homes existing with "Blu Roofs". My Plan is to reinforce some of them with wood 1X2 firring strips. This weeks rains not only saturated ground agian but showed the weekness of the plastic and tarps covering so many places. It is going to be a busy next few days and the local Home Depot has been a mad house since before ----sure it will be crazy today.
And BTW I agree with keeping name and while I haven't Thought much about Lisa being overtaken on the surface it would seem logical to keep the already named storm name.
The rant was probably from someone who had some "numbers" for the season that needed boosting.
Come on Florida no time for whining we all know if it happens ,it happens and we just gotta go with it best we can.
Hurric
"Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season"
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SoonerShawn
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
The way it looks to me is trying to make a run for LA. If this happens we will barely see any rain from him.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I was looking forward to the schools reopening in St. Lucie County next Monday. With the heavy rains and subsequent flooding here this week it wasn't a sure thing in my mind that would happen. The storm that was and is really dumped on us for two days this week. 7.25 inches at my house and yes I did empty the gauge before and during the rain.
The question I have now is for advice on what to do with the many thousands of homes existing with "Blu Roofs". My Plan is to reinforce some of them with wood 1X2 firring strips. This weeks rains not only saturated ground agian but showed the weekness of the plastic and tarps covering so many places. It is going to be a busy next few days and the local Home Depot has been a mad house since before ----sure it will be crazy today.
And BTW I agree with keeping name and while I haven't Thought much about Lisa being overtaken on the surface it would seem logical to keep the already named storm name.
The rant was probably from someone who had some "numbers" for the season that needed boosting.
Come on Florida no time for whining we all know if it happens ,it happens and we just gotta go with it best we can.
Hurric
I absoluely agree with your observations regarding the naming, there *are* more important things to concern ourselves with at the moment. In your case, your neck of the increasingly sparse woods it is indeed likely you will again experience hurricane force winds this weekend if the forecast verifies. I simply don't know how you can protect your home from additional damage because you are right, those tarps won't stand up to wind. You could possibly better use the tarps INDOORS, covering your valuables and sacrificing the roof which isn't protected by the tarps anyway. At least, the furnature and appliances might be kept dry. Also, if the track verifies, it is likely the wind will come from the opposite direction to that which you've already experienced. Keep that in mind if you do try to secure the tarps. Good luck neighbor, we are all going to need it even if the track moves back East somewhat.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
The way it looks to me is trying to make a run for LA. If this happens we will barely see any rain from him.
Tell you what, I'll trade you a brand new Jeanne for a re-tread version of
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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Maybe the house will blow down this time, I will just collect the insurance money, pay off the mortage, sell the land as is, and off I go to NZ. Don't mind me, just sick of this weather.
On a lighter note, no I am not on the penninsula, and will most likely remain here. This house is built like a fortress. I am about 1-2 miles as the bird flys away from the shore, we have the Halifax river on one side and the Tomoka on the other side of us. The biggest worry is flooding. I doubt she will make it to a 3, the water is too cold from .
I am hanging tight.
For you guys in Ormand Beach, it really does look bleak this morning given the forecast. I can only say that IF this track verifies and if the intensity does increase, I would seriously consider the option to leave Ormond Beach, assuming that the 'Beach' part of your address implies on the island. I hope and pray for all of us that this track does NOT verify and that it does move back out to the East, but time doesn't permit holding ones breath. Action needs to commence now before it becomes too late. I think you'd agree, rather too early than not early enough when a strong storm is involved, especially one basically aimed right at you. Good luck neighbor!
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Maybe the house will blow down this time, I will just collect the insurance money, pay off the mortage, sell the land as is, and off I go to NZ. Don't mind me, just sick of this weather.
On a lighter note, no I am not on the penninsula, and will most likely remain here. This house is built like a fortress. I am about 1-2 miles as the bird flys away from the shore, we have the Halifax river on one side and the Tomoka on the other side of us. The biggest worry is flooding. I doubt she will make it to a 3, the water is too cold from .
I am hanging tight.
I hope you are right and that it does not achieve Cat-III but even a Cat-II or strong Cat-I taken as a direct hit is very different than what you received during . Flooding is MUCH more of a likely event if you are even partially in the eye as is quite possible with the forecast. If flooding does occur on the island, which is likely, I hope your fortress can swim. Once you decide and the winds come up, it is too late to change your mind as the bridges will be closed and you'll be trapped on the island. At least, you aren't on the ocean side, but rivers can flood also. In any event, make your decision early and God be with you. We could all be spared if the track forecast changes but I wouldn't count on it improving will be elated if it does improve....soon!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.
I may owe you an apology, The newest graphic on the is differnt from the one in the
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/220853W5.gifI truly wish you well.
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 11:06 AM)
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Florida Nurse
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Loc: St. Augustine, Fl
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Want to say that I have been learning more about hurricanes than I ever wanted to know from reading this board, but I'm thankful so many of you understand what is going on far better than I. I''ll attempt to keep stupid comments and questions to a minimum...............now with that said. I'm in St. Augustine and like many of you from Florida, I don't think I can stand another weekend storm watching. I quit watching the weather channel and now just check the forecasts and read the posts here. I was without power for 6 days. I've been on vacation for 3 weeks, but I'm going back to work Tuesday. Just in time to take a cold shower in the mornings again it appears. I think I could use some mood stabilizers right now . I'm not freaking out, just watching. The track has changed so much that I'll reserve getting nervous until tomorrow if the track remains the same.
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