Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Yeah, Is it restructering?
or is it fizzling? The eye looks ragged for sure.
Looks like it may be going through an .
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Woo hoo! And no one has taken me up on it? My points are worth Krispt Kremes..every point I give out I get to eat one..
You might get more takers if you GIVE the donuts out, not eating them.... You are misusing your authority by decreasing the value of the bonus point system
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Marc
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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In my experience in tracking, it is not unusual for the eye to change several times in a storm's life. The longer this storm stays in the warm water, the more it will change.
This still has time to change again and again. The same for track.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Doesn't come back again
leaves eventually
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Phil,HF or Ed we use to have on the front page last year discussions about weather synoptics over the .Can you direct me to I can find them.
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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How about a split. If you get the bonus point, you meet me and I'll buy us each one
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Lance...a lot of times (like this whole freaking season) there are very weak steering currents, so the hurricanes will wobble back and forth until something more steady picks it up and begins to move it. That's why it's so hard to pinpoint an area of landfall for Jeanne right now. Could be South Florida, Central Florida, North Florida or even the Carolinas at this point. The models have not done a great job with the strength of the high over the Atlantic that's been pushing all the storms westward, towards Florida, which results in a lot of people being on pins and needles since . I sure hope they're right, that it will only hug the coast of Florida and move up the coastline, but I have a binder (I know I'm a geek!  ) that I can reference that had doing almost the same thing until about 2 days (or less) before landfall in Central Florida. was also supposed to hug the coast and go up to the Carolinas, but we all know that did not happen.
Satellite frames are our enemy.  They can make you crazy looking at them every hour (or half hour) to try and see where it's going. I can honesly tell you that because I did it with , and .  A better way to do it is to step away for a few hours, than come back and look. Also...the has been doing an excellent job this year with their accuracy for landfalling storms, and this was what Forecaster Avila said in his 11:00pm advisory last night:
Quote:
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS STRONG HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE CONSENSUS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE ...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT
BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP ONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.
FORECASTER AVILA
So, yes, the storm has been forecasted to move in a more westward direction and could in fact be doing just that, which may be why she is MOVING ERRATICALLY as LoisCane has emphasized.
Now, if you read the 5AM advisory: Jeanne 5AM Advisory , there is more of a question of intensity rather than where/when/if it will make landfall in Florida.
I hope this helps. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Quote:
How accurate can this be? Check this link out.
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel.html
So this looks like model run of some kind. Is this the ? Initiated at what time?
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Phil,HF or Ed we use to have on the front page last year discussions about weather synoptics over the .Can you direct me to I can find them.
I bet if you started here you might find something of value, also the /TPC has some stuff of interest.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grb-comp.html
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:50 AM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I wasn't logged in Earlier, Beach = CocoaBeach
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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I believe this was ran this morning because it was different yesterday. Had NC in sight.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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winds up to 105mph that i did recieve for 11am adv25.6N and 69.7W coming out any min now
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Quote:
How accurate can this be? Check this link out.
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel.html
So this looks like model run of some kind. Is this the ? Initiated at what time?
The text (hard to read) says /MRF
based on the first image of that series, I'd say it's the 0Z for today, Sept 23.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Scott,
I'm truly glad you're here again. Now, maybe we can get more than guesses and speculation. At least your guesses are Educated guesses and a good track record.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It appears that no major changes. Looks to be a little accelerated at the end of the five day period. Calling for Cat 3 but coming back to cat 2 at landfall. Does not look good. Still hoping this shifts east. However, I do not see a real reason to shift east yet.
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Jim
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troy
Unregistered
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Yep scott 105
a bit further south then up the coast it appears
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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11am track is up, still waiting on the discussion. They bump it up to a 3 over the Bahamas, and now have it making landfall almost exactly where did.
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[witty phrase here]
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Jeanne starting her westward march,,,she will pick up speed but how much is the key for her to hit or brush florida. Anyways expect little strengthning over the next day until she gets near the florida gulf stream then she will pick up strengh and winds will increase I feel to 120-125mph nearing landfall on Saturday evening or night.
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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I am at 26.2N and I am holding my breath until I know that I am out of the woods. When do ya suppose I would know that?
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truth
Unregistered
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scott were is she going to make landfall , your best estimate
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