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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: recmod]
      #29981 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:03 PM

Well every met and person at the NHC has theyre own opinion and since its more then 72hrs out (about 78hrs) from landfall he will pass it on to the next person at the 5am adv for the track to the west and also they will look at the OZ runs. I agree we have time and he doesnt want to hype up a scare on the people along the coast tonight. He will leave it up to the morning guy. Agreed.

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Ricreig
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #29982 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:05 PM

Quote:

They are being very conservative on the slight track to the west,,they will wait to see the OZ model runs to make a more w track into florida. Thats how i see it and they will come into agreement with my thinking of this. Ivan at 3pm wasnt a depression but it continued to get better organized and they waited for recon,, thats why it wasnt upgraded at 5pm. Should be a weak tropical storm as most of us predicted nearing Texas coast in 36 hours,.,,,,still not 100% sure it will come inland or jog to the south. Ill post more on Jeanne later tonight and on Thursday on my landfall area.


Well, as I remember, you forecast it to go, ala Andrew, across the state about 150 N of Andrew and into the gulf. I tend to disagree in that I don't think it'll get into the GOM. What I see happening is that it will march inland, then turn right and possibly march up the state just inland with a slight turne to the NE and comning back out into the Atlantic just off the coast to about NC....beyond that, I'm not sure but with the ridge to the N from about West of Bermuda to somewhere S, SW of Florida, I can see it deflecting right. Add the trof coming in from the West, (not in time), I'm not sure if it will go NE or back slightly NW and affect the NE US. My sills are not developed enough to see that far out.

I hope we're both wrong and we won't need to concern ourselves with how much Ice we'll need this time....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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leetdan
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne and wishcasting musings [Re: Brett]
      #29983 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:05 PM

Yup, I was among the storm-hungry hurricane trackers too. Despite Andrew Hugo Mitch Floyd etc and everything they did, I still had it in the back of my mind that experiencing one of these things was something to look forward to, hanging on to every forecast/model that -might- bring one of these things my way.

Then Frances gutted the marina my family's been running for 25 years. Needless to say, the taste left my mouth completely.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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LI Phil
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Re: Models [Re: Brett]
      #29984 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:05 PM

Start with this.

I subscribe to accuwx plus, so I don't have many free links readily available...anyone out there want to toss up a few links...kinda buzzed too.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: recmod]
      #29985 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:06 PM

Continuity? Is he referring to Jeanne's projected track continuity, or the season in general?

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #29986 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:07 PM

I guess it's time for some sleep and I think we will wake up at 5 a.m. with the track hitting Florida. All models, talk, and signs are pointing towards that. The discussion really says it all.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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leetdan
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: danielw]
      #29987 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:08 PM

Jeanne-specific, I'm fairly sure. As was mentioned above, since it's still over 3 days out there's no sense raising concern sooner than it needs be done.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Brett
Weather Watcher


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Re: Models [Re: LI Phil]
      #29988 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:09 PM

Thanks Phil. Sorry about the earlier post

I also subscribe to Accuweather professional...read Joe B every day.

Question: I heard mention earlier of two models suggesting that the ridge sliding east would actually not slide east, but bridge east, forcing Jeanne to the west. You heard anything further on this?

She, obviously, is still moving sw. How far off the NHC track from 11 am is she now?

--------------------
South Florida


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Rasvar
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29989 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:10 PM

I have a new theory, all the hot air from the politicians who have been in the state the last week or so has lowered the pressure over Florida allowing the ridge to build in stronger.

OK, getting tired and making bad jokes. Must be time for bed.

--------------------
Jim


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Kent
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: danielw]
      #29990 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:11 PM

I'm watching re-runs here! Did you know the news could do that? Sure looks the same to me!

I can just hear our weather guys now..."Francis/Jeanne?" aw heck they look the same lets reuse the same forecast we aired 4 weeks ago and call it a night!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: leetdan]
      #29991 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:13 PM

Ricreig ala Andrew is where it went from the postion of 28N and 67.5W close to Andrew then south then west to near miami. I said this will do the same up to landfall or near landfall but 150miles north of there.Also said wasnt sure if it will hug the coast or move across after that. So I didnt say it will cross the state like Andrew, but it could. Right now Im looking at new data and model runs to give a landfall (if any) by tomorrow midday.

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Joe
Storm Tracker


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: danielw]
      #29992 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:14 PM

Avila is referring to Jeannes track and not making big shifts with the track. I think they want to look over 00Z guidance before making the move, but to be honest with you I dont expect much difference in the 00Z guidance other then maybe making it more clear to shift the track west. Still time to watch but have to say I am leaning more and more toward fl, as I look at latest water vapor and model analysis.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Joe]
      #29993 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:16 PM

upper air patterns go into the runs of the OZ and 12Z runs. They do adjust them every 6 hrs but every 12hrs they add more data, I could be wrong, Jason might know.

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Mooshie-SC
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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Joe]
      #29994 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:16 PM

So is it becoming more obvious that the storm will move into the Florida peninsula instead of making a turn north towards SC?

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LI Phil
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Voodoo [Re: Joe]
      #29995 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:18 PM

See, this here's the problem...Rabbit was online far to often at the beginning of the season, when we were all Jonesing for some tropical action, and now he almost never posts...when we need him most...oh well..one pill makes you larger and one pill makes you small...

Now we sit at the precipice...

Just Go AWAY!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Joe]
      #29996 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:18 PM

Didn't read the whole thread, but we got a decent band come in just around dark. It had maybe 1/4" and some light winds. I was glad to get that. Looks like Ivan is blowing up some Nice Convection over the LA Coastal waters. I'm hoping we get a bit more, but it's just a nice summer night - cool, breezy and tropical.

As for Jeanne, some of the models are now taking her into the extreme NE Gulf and then moving up through the Big Bend along the GA and SC coastlines. Others curve her a bit inland and up. I don't have a call either way (including a NC hit) right now - it's more a watching game. The High is pretty strong to Jeanne's north so she's gonna head west at least close to the Peninsula. That much we do know.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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52255225
Weather Guru


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Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #29997 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:21 PM

Scott, are you a pro met? because if not you should be! You are always so damn close. You had this scenario 3 days ago! unbelievable! o.k. I suppose the steel on the windows is staying!

Edited by 52255225 (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:24 PM)


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Brett
Weather Watcher


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Mooshie-SC]
      #29998 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:22 PM

I think we would have to say yes, at this point Mooshie.

Scott, can we use 25n as a benchmark? The thursday plot for the NHC is basically at 25.5, and although I realize it could make a curve back up to that point...chances are more likely it will head due west for awhile, are they not? What is the atmospheric feature that is predicted to swing it north so rapdily? Is it a trof, or is it, presumably, the western edge of the ridge?

I am having a hard time seeing the swing north so early on water vapor.

--------------------
South Florida

Edited by Brett (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:25 PM)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #29999 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:22 PM

Quote:

Count me in on the up late up early checking on the storm disease.
My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
I'm in FLorida ... DAH......??




My wife thinks I am on the PC with a girlfriend. I keep saying,"I just need to get the updates on the storms." 3 hours later I'm still online. At least my kids are geeting a great education on Tropical Weather.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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LI Phil
User


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Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: 52255225]
      #30000 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:23 PM

>>> Scoot, are you a pro met? because if not you should be

Poor bastid's been fielding these questions for the past several years...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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