tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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*sigh*
In spite of my potentially crow-eating statement that Jeanne would be hitting FL, I took down the last of my shutters two days ago. I guess I know what I'll be doing tonight 
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Want to say that I have been learning more about hurricanes than I ever wanted to know from reading this board, but I'm thankful so many of you understand what is going on far better than I. I''ll attempt to keep stupid comments and questions to a minimum...............now with that said. I'm in St. Augustine and like many of you from Florida, I don't think I can stand another weekend storm watching. I quit watching the weather channel and now just check the forecasts and read the posts here. I was without power for 6 days. I've been on vacation for 3 weeks, but I'm going back to work Tuesday. Just in time to take a cold shower in the mornings again it appears. I think I could use some mood stabilizers right now  . I'm not freaking out, just watching. The track has changed so much that I'll reserve getting nervous until tomorrow if the track remains the same.
That sounds like a plan. I would suggest taking the time between now and when you start getting nervous to ensure you've done your preparations as St Augustine, even with a course change, is likely to experience much worse conditions than you've seen so far this year. By tomorrow, your neighbors may start panic buying and the stores may already be 'out' when you get there. Don't panic, but do prepare and restock needed supplies this morning. You can always use unused supplies, if not this year with Lisa, then certainly something...
I pray conditions aren't as bad or worse than before, but we would be foolish to delude ourselves and say it can't happen or won't happen, not in a case like this. I'd rather be over prepared rather than under prepared.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
*sigh*
In spite of my potentially crow-eating statement that Jeanne would be hitting FL, I took down the last of my shutters two days ago. I guess I know what I'll be doing tonight
I *know* I told someone they should just wash the car, then it would only rain...but taking down your shutters....you KNOW what that brings!!!! Shame 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
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Good advice about not waiting. Getting a full tank of gas now and cash out of the bank, as well as any food and water supplies should probably be done today.
I'm in a quandry about whether to stay in our house or to go to a shelter this time around. The shelter was a nightmare. 500 people with no bathrooms, no emergency backup generator, solid waste over flowing onto the main floor, not to mention I'm a bit peoplephobic and being in that crowd in a small place drove me up the wall. Our house was battle tested to 110 MPH winds (maybe more with the gusts) in . We are in Fort Pierce, and got the eye wall several times as the storm rotated (since it was oblong) and our house stood strong. The only concern is tornados. Course a tornado can just as easily rip the roof off a shelter as the house. Shelters have not yet been opened or announced for St. Lucie County, so I guess it's a moot decision until they do and there is still the chance it may go NW early enough to avoid us. I realize that doesn't look good at this point, but you never know. I guess today's forecasts will be the deciding factor. Intensity especially.
I noticed the new 5am advisory didn't have a range of size in relation to hurricane force winds versus tropical storm winds. Is there a place to find out if it's still 45/120 miles respectively?
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Until wakes up and can update his really fine maps for us all,, (he was up late last night, I know), Here is a graphics from Boat.com that will give you some idea about what winds you may experience with the forecast track. I suspect these will change, but if it doesn't, most of the Florida East coast north of about Vero/Palm Beach north to Sourthern North Carolina area will experience hurricane force winds and much of the North Central areas over to almost Tampa will feel TS winds..... Take a look:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_bands.asp
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 11:45 AM)
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Bubba
Unregistered
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My first post, I have been lurking since Charlie. I can't believe we have another storm heading this way!!  Hopefully it will shift a little right. I still have family at my house who are refugees from , no roof on their house. To make matters worse, I have tickets to the Miami vs. Pittsburgh game in Miami on Sunday!!! I've been waiting 4 months for that game!! Can't leave the house with a Cat II coming in..... Drats.....
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If you can't find that information, I would bet they are waiting until recon gets there to measure it so they are accurate about it. The economics of this can not withstand large forecasting errors now. The politics are going to have to get out of the way. People are too tired to react to general information and others simply have no place left to go and no money to get there.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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If you can't find that information, I would bet they are waiting until recon gets there to measure it so they are accurate about it. The economics of this can not withstand large forecasting errors now. The politics are going to have to get out of the way. People are too tired to react to general information and others simply have no place left to go and no money to get there.
...which is the best argument for getting the information out as accurately as possible and as early as possible. Under these conditions, many folks will need the extra time it could provide. If a 'heads-up' forecast freaks or panics them, imagine what happens when they have 48 hours or less to prepare...now that's panic.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM)
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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funny thing is i went and spent 400 dollars yesterday on shoping restocking stuff. thank god for disaster food stamps, so i am very well prepared for the impending hurricane. i am going to reboard my windows that i took plywood off, preparing the children for what may happen and sit and wait now. but i pray we dont get it. but now i am grateful that i went when i did to the stores. by the way they say the eyewall is to hit between melbourne and vero beach flroida. I live 45 miles from melbourne. UGH!
Edited by Liz L. (Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 AM)
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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http://www.wftv.com/weather/3750485/detail.html
From Tom Terry and company at Channel 9.
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Tarpon
Unregistered
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I'm a novice at this but one thing positive for Florida is the fact that the 5 a.m. advisory had it moving west at 3 and the 8 a.m. has it drifting. Because it is now moving very slow to the west, I feel that it will be farther away from the Florida east coast when it makes its turn north thus Florida will be spared. At least I hope so.
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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All the models are coming into agreement except for one , so i am bracing for a impact, cant take a chance . have to much to lose.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I'm a novice at this but one thing positive for Florida is the fact that the 5 a.m. advisory had it moving west at 3 and the 8 a.m. has it drifting. Because it is now moving very slow to the west, I feel that it will be farther away from the Florida east coast when it makes its turn north thus Florida will be spared. At least I hope so.
I think several million people in the area would agree. The longer it stays East of forecast, the better the chances the effective ridges and troughs have to reorient themselves and prevent a possible (additional) disaster for Florida and could even benefit our neighbors to the North.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
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Fortunately, we still have a lot of supplies from . One good thing about the shelter was they gave you food (which is not a guarantee), so we didn't have to have to use our canned food/water much while there and power/water was not off very long afterward the storm at our house.. We got flashlights oddly enough after the storm, but at least now we have them. If we do decide to go to a shelter, gonna definitely take lounge chairs with us. The hard floor with a sleeping bag just didn't cut it as far as the old muscles. Today's quest will mostly be to fill up the tank and get cash from the bank, which is important because last time the stores only took cash around here for quite a few days. A friend with food stamps told me they didn't take them either, something to consider. Plywood mounting will probably be tomorrow's project and a storage of valuables in the storm shed.
Rich, thanks for the head's up on the map. Will help and I look forward to seeing Skeetobyte's take on it. He's been so very helpful with his maps and I appreciate them a lot. Was so informative in and I'm sure to the other storm's as well.
Today is going to be a crazy day and I really really hope they are wrong and Jeanne turns NW before getting too close.
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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the models are moving it west according to the tv here. none the less we should heed the warnings and prepare for this thing. Its better to be safe than sorry, i know i sound over cautious but i have a family to protect and want to see all my friends and family be safe.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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I can't beleive that two models back back SW after landfall and the turn him east and NE back over the Gulf again. could go down in history for the most landfalls. What storm has made the most landfalls in history???
Ivan so far has Grenada, Jamaica (sort of), Grand Cayman, Cuba, Alabama, now TX, and then possibly NE Gulf again?????
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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If it's my hospital I'll do my best to get you taken care of 
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Rich, thanks for the head's up on the map. Will help and I look forward to seeing Skeetobyte's take on it. He's been so very helpful with his maps and I appreciate them a lot. Was so informative in and I'm sure to the other storm's as well.
Today is going to be a crazy day and I really really hope they are wrong and Jeanne turns NW before getting too close.
Hey Freaked...Yes, provides a valuable service and I think we all owe him a debt of gratitude. I'm sure he'd appreciate hearing from you to make him aware of just how valuable he really is. The list of others we owe our thanks to is long, but we need to tell Mike, John, Ed, Phil, Scottvb, Clark, HankFrank and well, the list is long. I wish you well and I'm glad you're prepared already. Many of us find ourselves in much the same position, but that full gas tank you mentioned may be a luxury if the forecast is right and like you, I hope it is not but I'm not counting on it. Good luck!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Sadly I have to wake up at 4 to be at work on time at 5:15. I live in Deltona and work in Orlando. In between patients I'm reading this and updating my coworkers....I'm just glad this site looks like work more than solitaire
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Ricreig
User
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
the models are moving it west according to the tv here. none the less we should heed the warnings and prepare for this thing. Its better to be safe than sorry, i know i sound over cautious but i have a family to protect and want to see all my friends and family be safe.
Yes, models moving west seems to be the norm this year. This will help the coast (except where it goes in of course) but increases the threat to inland communities such as yours. What we need is a way to convince the adjustments (followed of course by the storm itself) to be made well EAST instead.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 12:32 PM)
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