Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 11, 2002
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gustav...located about 275 miles south-southwest of Halifax Nova
Scotia.
Surface observations indicate that the broad low pressure area over
the east-central Gulf of Mexico continues to become better
organized. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for
development...however there is the potential for tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation in this area. An Air Force hurricane
hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system this evening.
A westward-moving tropical wave is located in the far eastern
Atlantic about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Although the associated shower activity is minimal at this
time...this system has the potential for slow development over the
next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Forecaster pasch
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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Initial conditions of model runs put center at 25.7N 87.1W
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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it looks like it may be trying to rap back on the north side can it push the dry air out is there a chance this thing comes in around ala/fl can this thing set out there a few days
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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hello all.....
a question for ya, was not Gabby also the 9th storm of the season around the same date? Not that it has much bearing on the current situation in the GOM i'm sure...
Regards
BD
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Conditions at 42003 as of
(5:00 pm CDT)
2200 GMT on 09/11/2002: Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
4:00 pm SSW ( 199 deg ) 27.6 kts
4:10 pm SW ( 216 deg ) 27.8 kts
4:20 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 26.0 kts
4:30 pm SSW ( 196 deg ) 23.5 kts
4:40 pm SSW ( 200 deg ) 23.5 kts
4:50 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 21.0 kts
-------------------- RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Yes,
Gabby was the ninth storm of the 2001 season, but it appears this storm will make landfall later (1-3 days depending on movement).
Kevin
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Just a little note,
I've posted my thoughts on 98L over in the Storm Forum. Comments over there would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Kevin
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Sure looks weak tonite, looks as if the drier air is eating it alive !! just some heavy rains all the way down to Key West .
-------------------- RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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2 Pac
Unregistered
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God Bless America
Can anyone tell me what's the chances that the disturbance in the gulf may hit the Alabama, Flordia border? Just Wondering cuz i just moved here from Indy an well i wanna be in a storm but not any huge monster storm. Personally I dont think this storm will develop because there is to much dry air around but it could be trying to wrap more moisture into it.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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At 6pm pressure now 29.69 and falling thats 1005.5 mb
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ninth? seventh.. G=7th letter. unless you think depressions are important.
cloud tops have warmed away from the low center, so what might have earlier classified as a TD or TS is now a bit weaker. probably still enough to go with to give it the nod, but theyre checking with recon just to make sure. of course i'm not expecting theyll find enough of a center to give us a vortex message, more likely just hear the usual prefab developing system message at 11pm.
personally think the system is loosely organized and has such dry air entrainment that it will never get very strong if it does develop. maybe be a tropical storm.. kevin 80kt is pretty nuts. think the northerly movement is overdone on models, probably be a central florida thing, maybe even southern. not move fast either. whole disturbed area will probably still be viable even after crossing florida as the ridge builds back.
models... have the trough left behind gustav begatting a low.. kind of in the same general area as in former TD7. i wonder...
two waves, both looking strong. the one near 20/50 is going to be leaving the shear and under ridging in a day or two, maybe start something north of the islands. of course if the ridge is built back by then it wont be recurving. behind it the other wave, with the turning and spotty convection is nicely defined and staying south. models are following it and so am i.. though not expecting it to develop quickly. as it gets further west the upper trough should make it start throwing convection, then maybe it can become one of those sheared struggling tropical systems. further upstream the synoptic pattern with both of these is for the east coast to open back up.. if we get by these then the cape verde threat will be essentially gone.
i see bastardi is still up. the site did ask me for my Accuweather password, so i assumed the worst. still, get him for just a little bit longer. i draw a lot from him, so my awareness will probably suffer when he becomes a pay service.
anyone gustav.. byett noticed the vortex msg and read the same things out of it that i did... but the opted to assume gustav's -phasing structure made the storm weaker than normal flight level winds would suggest. since the upper and lower systems arent well stacked i guess its a fair move.
nuff then.
HF 2337z11september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like we are close to TD 8...
764
URNT12 KNHC 112307
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2307Z
B. 26 DEG 13 MIN N
86 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 321 DEG 64 NM
F. 048 DEG 21 KT
G. 325 DEG 045 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 303 M
J. 24 C/ 297 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF985 01GGA INVEST OB 04
MAX FL WIND 21 KT NW QUAD 2255Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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787
WONT41 KNHC 112334
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL BE
ISSUED AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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000
WONT41 KNHC 112334
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL BE
ISSUED AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Sorry someone beat me to it
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HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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they were late.. if theyd have arrived earlier today when the convection was going theyd have found gale force winds. surprised they found a center nice enough to give a vortex msg on. 1001mb.. dont think it will maintain that low with such spotty convection. probably weaken overnight until it can burst some more. seems that if theyre going to issue TS watches, why not give a special 8pm advisory, since they go every three hours anyway when watches or warnings are up..
ah well, TD 9 already. surprising.
HF 2357z11september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TD8 has formed as expected. I want to look at the next model runs for 00Z on the avn,nogaps and before any strength at landfall is presumed. Currently most models want to weaken the system after 60 hours early Sat. Dry air might want to reach into the deveolping TS hindering it from developing. I will post more later tonight when the new runs come in. I expect more deepening or convection late tonight and especially tomorrow night. Currently thinking 60 mph near Cedar Key Friday night seems best bet but only 40%. On side note alot of good inputs on this site continue, we all like the info alot of you get on ship reports and other data the public cant get from the weather depts all the time. Hankfrank gives a real good idea with reasoning to his perdictions. I welcome his inputs. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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That was me...I changed PC's at work and this one doesn't log me in automatically...
Sorry Jeanine!
-------------------- Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Here in Pinellas County, we've had 2-2 1/2 inches of rain..all the local meteorolgists weren't selling the tropical possibilities on the drive-time newscasts, I guess they'll be singing a different tune now.
Something going on, all right. Just a matter of how far up the west coast it will go.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like a crystal river---cedar key--land fall!!!
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