Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Holly unlyrical lyrics batman, this thing seems to be doin the GOLLIWOP, dancin around in the Gulf like it's on center stage dis stome aint nutin 'N' it aint gunna be nuttin. But please build into a Cat 2-3 and swing into Volusia Co.
(Sorry just trying to piss off the STORM GODS)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Hey Houstontracker, maybe we'll see tropical storm watches put up for Tx/Mexico tomorrow.... hehe...
From what I can tell from your loop, it looks like just a wobble/drift to the WSW, more importantly some significant convection building just south of the center... could be first sign of strengthening tonight.......
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
well I got the stationary position right on the advisory. I saw steve Lyons report on the update and he still says NW to N. Kinda hard to believe but yeah might happen. I seem to feel the center of the mid level low to the ESE of the current low will become the dominate feature into the morning hours and the spin or the current low will fad out to the west. This is currently seen on infrared sat but hard to always see. With this low becoming the more dominate feature a N progress will ensue early in the morning and turn to the NE near panama city or maybe even E unlike what is forcasted by Lyons. I havnt read the report yet but I feel they will say N then NNE like Mr Lyons said. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I think this one might be yours, but who knows maybe it will just keep heading SW into the BOC.
Oh well, time will tell, but I gotta get to bed. Have to be at work at 5am.
Houstontracker
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looking at all the data tonight is like watching a tennis match between Conners and Borg... back and forth, back and forth
10:00 pm probabilities from the definitely shows a minor shift somewhat to the west... at 4:00 pm, Pensacola was at 30 and the highest.... Areas to the west have increase somewhat since 4:00 pm. Mobile, Gulfport and especially Buras La all up... Basically Pensacola, Mobile and Gulfport are about equal...
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Good job Scottsvb...echoing what I have been thinking...
I don't like the more westerly relocation of the track...I'm thinking we are just seeing a cyclonic loop...and the longer it takes for the northward motion to begin, the less west vector we will see (if we see anything to the west at all...I have my doubts).
Dr Lyons has my respect...but I disagree with him on this one...I think people (including ) are hanging too much on this little westward jog.
But that's just my opinion...I could be wrong! (tip of the hat to Miller)
-------------------- Jason Kelley
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Awesome discussion...Kudos Mr Stewart...probably the best of the season!
028
WTNT44 KNHC 130304
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2002
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AT LEAST IN THE LOW-LEVELS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS A TIGHT
INNER CORE WIND FIELD WHILE THE OUTER WIND FIELD HAS ALSO EXPANDED
AND STRENGTHENED...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SMALL BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER AND BANDING HAS IMPROVED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON 2 SHIPS LOCATED WITHIN 30 NMI
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTER THAT REPORTED 30 KT AND A PRESSURE
OF 1003.6 MB. A RECON AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST 3 HOURS
AFTER LOOPING TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 6 KT. HOWEVER...A GENERAL SLOW
DRIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR WESTWARD
SHIFT BY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH
THE AND GFDN MODELS BEING THE FARTHEST WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TIP OF LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...INFORMATION FROM A
GULFSTREAM-IV AIRCRAFT OVERFLYING THE CYCLONE INDICATES THAT WHILE
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED...THE FLOW WAS STILL
FROM THE WEST ON THE WEST SIDE. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN ABOUT 30 TO 40 METERS ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INCREASED
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. WHILE THE MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD...IT IS MORE TIGHTLY PACKED THAN ON PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.
THE AND GFDN KEEP THE DEPRESSION SHALLOW AND WEAK...WHICH
PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE GETS
STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE
NORTHWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. ALSO...WITH SOME WESTWARD
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...A MORE EASTWARD BIAS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN
AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. IMPORTANT NOTE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
EVEN MORE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 24
TO 36 HOURS...THE AVN MODEL IS FORECASTING A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP
ABOVE THE CYCLONE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS
CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND IT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 45 KT IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 26.6N 87.9W 30 KTS
12HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 88.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 14/0000Z 29.0N 88.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 14/1200Z 30.9N 86.9W 50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0000Z 32.8N 84.8W 30 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 35.5N 79.5W 25 KTS...INLAND LOW
-------------------- Jason Kelley
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Reminds me of Elena 85' just cant make up its mind !!
-------------------- RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Scott, interesting observation, however, I don't know if I agree with your post about the LLC fading out and the MLC taking over.. especially if the convection continues to develop around the southern part of the LLC as it appears to be trying to do tonight... now if the convection does not continue, then maybe your prediction might play out
|
Carl
Unregistered
|
|
If you look at the water vapor loop of the GOM, it looks like a weak upper low may be forming just north of the Yucatan. Could the flow around this feature push the depression even more to the west - just a thought.
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
no kidding.. a discussion where they actually discussed, not just fed the usual canned info.
wondering when the depression will decide to keep some convection steady and close to the center, that would get the figurative snowball rolling. the burst south of center could be just that trying to go (dreaming, yes i know). inland later saturday.. bummer. kinda wanted to go to the coast for this one, but need to go up to alabama to help friends clean up a house for sale..
ah well, maybe that 99L will give us another shot at landfall late next week. after all, what could be more fun than an angry hurricane coming up out of the caribbean? ought to be something by saturday, maybe tomorrow if it tightens a bit more quickly.
no fanfare, but the wave/sfc trough at 23/55 is about out of the shear, into the subsidence. prospects arent all that great, but it has shown persistence.. have to wonder.
td7 remnant... NE into the trough. i can still see it, make it go awaaaay...
well, tomorrow im sure it will be gone. at last.
so, hanna on the way, recon is in. isidore maybe caribbean, for the weekend. josephine.. somewhere up the road. maybe near, maybe far. its lucky friday the 13th! dont forget to make a wish.
HF 0340z13september
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
okay, from 10:42pm eastern.. vortex message called it at 1004 with flight level winds at 27kt. what?? i thought a ship away from the center had 1003 just recently. this adds confusion, not clarity...
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
True, but this was first pass from the NW quad...last recon (not vortex) found 32.2 in the SE quad at FL...give them a pass or two to firm up the Vortex...
Good link to a guy here in Panama City who plots the recon in real time on his site...scroll down a bit..
Net Waves TD 9 page
-------------------- Jason Kelley
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
current recon was right. 1004 but that was where the low level center is. Pressures continue to fall near the mid level center to the ESE of there and are near 1005. Both are now reflecting on the other and thats why the stall to the original low has taken place. I expect it to entrain into the mid level center that coming to the surface during the next 4-6 hours and then move NNE then NE friday night. Unless the TD (midlevel low coming down to the surface) doesnt take shape then more weakening will occur and will bring a moist flow to the pandhandle and west cental florida. scottsvb
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
1003mb last fix, and they found 45kt flight level winds somewhere. the vortex message also mentions 'curved band 3 or 4 miles from flight center.. mmkay. 2am advisory, finally give this poor little lady a name. nine just doesnt suit her.
HF 0530z13september
|