Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
In the latest sat, is she moving somewhat like wnw instead of w?
Hey guys and gals. As much as we'd all like to see Jeanne go somewhere, almost anywhere else but our own doorstep, Lets see what *trends* develop and not get too excited about every little wobble from frame to frame. A trend of several hours is real important, a 'trend' of a couple of frames of sat is pretty 'so what', if you get my drift? ... but don't give up hope, there *is* still time for good things to happen. We just don't want to get so absorbed in the trees that we forget the goal is to find the way out of the forrest.
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:10 AM)
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from Gainesville
Unregistered
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in the latest IR frame, the eye appears to have a 'blue' line running down the middle, separating it into almost two equal halves. Otherwise, the storm looks healthy. I'm sure this is only a temporary state with the eye, but can anyone explain why it looks like that?
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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After looking at the IR loop for the last 6 hours, it sure looks like the eye has obviously moved to the W, possibly to the WNW. Is this my imagination?
No, but it is really slow. Six hours is a slow trend to the West...actually, good news I think.
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I agree. We've seen wobbles from pretty much every storm this year, interesting to note, but nothing to make a big deal about. Not that there's anything wrong with that. (can I give bonus points?)
-------------------- Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
means a lot of wobbles... as said worry about the whole forest not a tree or two
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Go to this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
click the handy dandy "Forecast Points" box
There will be another "BIG" forecast change either at
2:00pm or 5pm. My guess is 5pm.
I bet the change the landfall area to FL/GA area.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Go to this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
click the handy dandy "Forecast Points" box
There will be another "BIG" forecast change either at
2:00pm or 5pm. My guess is 5pm.
I bet the change the landfall area to FL/GA area.
I would tend to agree with you. I think they will keep it the same at 11, then bump it right at 5.
-------------------- Irwin M. Fletcher
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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dry eye, dry air
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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anonymous
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They are not going to shift the forecast to the right if the models are still showing an east or s. fla. landfall.
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Check this out... this station is about 37 miles north of the center... looks like pressure may be going up in the area...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mrsl1
-------------------- Allison
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TROY
Unregistered
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Didnt mention that it would start to move west later this afternoon
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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am i the only one who notices dry air filling in around 75?
and... same dry air is getting into jeanne
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
t. (can I give bonus points?)
I don't know why not. We all share the responsibility of making this the best board around, and responsability should come authority to issue bonus points
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Yeah, Is it restructering?
or is it fizzling? The eye looks ragged for sure.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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Interesting map, my dad liked this one during
One thing I noticed is the huge dry rush coming down from the North, which to my unschooled eye is going to push this wobble back in line with the model / forecast consensus. And I agree, we'll know at five.
-------------------- [witty phrase here]
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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How accurate can this be? Check this link out.
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel.html
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Woo hoo! And no one has taken me up on it? My points are worth Krispt Kremes..every point I give out I get to eat one..
-------------------- Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I really doubt there is any adjustment at 11:00am, except to push back the times. While the longer it sits, the less the chance that she will make landfall on Florida, It may be a matter of having to wait for a true motion to begin before the situation will become clearer.
-------------------- Jim
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Go to this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
click the handy dandy "Forecast Points" box
There will be another "BIG" forecast change either at
2:00pm or 5pm. My guess is 5pm.
I bet the change the landfall area to FL/GA area.
Looks like at a minimum, their speed and timing is off. I hope this means an adjustment WAY EAST! Yes, I'm guilty of 'wishcasting', but away, not toward my location as is the case with 'true' wishcasting....
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
How accurate can this be? Check this link out.
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel.html
To my untrained eyes, this is pretty much in line with the forecast...they just make smaller dots
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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