Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The current track brings her right along the coast where you are. I would stay vigilant with this storm especially.
Kyle
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Lois,
Catch the 12Z HERE!
Phil,
You got that part wrong. would possibly loop SW down through Texas and emerge into the southern Gulf. He's worried about the Southern Gulf anyway, but notes that that if it's , it's a "pre-existing spin" and parallels thereafter with Opal are real (though almost unimanginable).
WX2,
What, we've had 5 (essentially) Florida landfalls already this year? Bonnie, Charlie, x 2, (though technically a Baldwin Co., Alabama landfall, damage was at least as bad and in some cases worse in Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties, FL.
Should Jeanne make it to the Peninsula, then possibly Part III, it would really be an unprecidented year for your people.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Sorry Steve, I goofed...a little...here's what he said:
"But then the potential argument is, would it be ? The question would be answered easily if I knew it would do what I fear, which is simply march along the Texas coast, then turn southeastward early next week into the Gulf near 25 and 92.5 by Tuesday. Then it would start northeastward. In the ultimate irony, it would head back toward where it hit in the first place. "
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I normally would PM you, but you're not registered, so I can't.
Quote:
So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?
GUILTY. The jury is now laughing at Geragross (sp mistake intentional) when he does his cross; 7 weeks ago they were laughing with him.
Not a good sign for Mr. Liar Liar Pants On Fire.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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No problem Phil.
Bobbi,
Unfortunately the loop at isn't working yet, so you have to step them yourself from the FNMOC site right here.
What is very interesting is the is now going with a double Florida landfall scenario (making it #6 and #7 on the year). I think it may be a bit far west, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Is the high on the nnw side good or bad? Help me out.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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lois
Unregistered
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she wont go very far north in her westward progress which would make it harder to miss the state
opens ups doors for other possibilities too
also could keep her out there longer which could in time enhance her strength and bring her in stronger..
storms cant go where the high builds in
that is my question on this current scenario
that is what worries me
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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lois
Unregistered
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since beginning of the loop dry air/high pressure has eaten up all of north carolina and moving down to gobble up south carolina
if storm was moving fast now.. could see where forecast works well
but she isnt moving too fast and if the high creeps further down the coast line.. worried about scenario not being so far fetched and dont see how verifies
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.
Actually, Skeeter is using coords to make his awesome maps, and unless I'm mistaken, it's showing 2 landfalls...however, hurricanes don't move in the straight line shown, so it's more likely at the moment that it's just one landfall, then riding up the coast inland. This forecast path will change with each new model run, so use the map for guidance and preparation only...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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All 3 models,,,,,Nogaps, , and have landfall in florida now. does still take it NW but this time just alittle more w then last run making landfall near Jupiter,fl then NW near Orlando then N. takes her into Ft Lauderdale across to Ft Myers and the is alittle north with landfall near Vero Beach across the state to Tampa. Havent seen the Ukmet yet and also the . All so far make landfall in 66-72hrs. I expect hurricane watches will go up for Bahamas this evening at 5pm and 5am on Friday morning from Dade (should be Broward county) north to around Flager beach. Not sure though how far north but they might have a long strech due to possilbe turn NW near the coast or over the state.
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
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I have been lurking for a few months and I finally registered today. I am 26.2N and I am getting worried. I have supplies and I filled my tank this am. My prayers to all of us!
26.2N 80.1W
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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The is calling for a double FL hit too. Oh boy! 
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.
We have the precision down to about 100 meters on these maps, based on coordinates.
Personally, I think it will track left, just like all of the prior storms this year. Seems to be a huge "right bias" to the models and guidance. Novice observation - spotting trends is easier than predicting them ;-)
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Thanks for the tip..............................it helps
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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12Z shows her coming in near FT. Lauderdale, over Lake Okeechobee, towards Tampa and it ends there at 84 hours. Waiting for more frames.
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COgal
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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I would rather not have Jeanne coming anywhere near Florida but if she INSISTS on riding the coast like this I can only be thankful that most of the time the NE quad doesn't cover land.
Thank you for such informative maps!
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Yeah those of us right on the coast would feel it way before you if she came in closer though...........northeast quad going right over titusville............not comforting.
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
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Scott,
That would out me in the NE quadrant I am north of Lauderdale and South of Boca. Looks like I'll be evacuating tomorrow. I live on the beach.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
At the end of the last thread, Ed in VA posted that climatology shows that in September, cat 1 and 2 storms never hit FL from this position. True, but what if she is a cat 3 ?
Climatalogically speaking, the section of the Gulf Coast that was hit by does not get hit by storms that strong. Among other items, this is not a climatalogically normal season.
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Jim
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