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Recon is finding Milton continues to intensify and may become a Cat 5 at any time. Forecast of a turn towards Central Florida almost unanimous among the better models. Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
41.7N 38.4W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
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16.4N 41.2W
Wind: 85MPH
Pres: 985mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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21.7N 91.7W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 933mb
Moving:
Ese at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30303 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:22 PM

Check out this full basin wv loop. Marone (sp?).

How is this thing gonna turn north? Look at that Ridge!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30304 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM

one other distrubing thing about that WV loop Phil, and I'm sure you noticed, that ridge looks relatively solid to the NE of the system and perhaps looks to be building to the wsw... which if comes to fruition, would make it even worse for Florida.... the ridge will be the key, as it was for Frances and Ivan... forecast really quite simple with Jeanne now, it will follow the southern rim of the ridge along its outer edge.... now where will be ridge set up as it approaches landfall is the big question???

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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Link [Re: Ed in Va]
      #30305 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM

In the latest WV picture, Jeanne's looking a little embryonic.

Does anyone else see that?


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clyde w.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #30306 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:24 PM

I'm buying what you're selling...I thought I was losing my mind...

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30307 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:25 PM

The ridge definately appears to be building in. I suspect the northerly component of the motion will end soon. I would not be surprised to see some southerly movement later on with the way that ridge is setting up.

--------------------
Jim


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flbeachbumz
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Rasvar]
      #30308 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:27 PM

I have never seen so many hurricanes let alone ones that go in circles!!

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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: clyde w.]
      #30309 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM

Quote:

I'm buying what you're selling...I thought I was losing my mind...




Yeah, made me gasp when I first clicked on your link and looked at it too. Then I started clicking off the last two frames because the jump in the graphic "bugged" me - at least NHC hasn't changed the track that radically yet! Actually, what they've got on the board right now is worse for me in Daytona area. Ah well.


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: flbeachbumz]
      #30310 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM

It's like watching John Madden diagram a play on the telestrator....

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Bloodstar
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Weak attempt at Ivan Humor [Re: flbeachbumz]
      #30311 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:31 PM

So, if Ivan somehow hits Texas, then loops to the soutwest and the back out into the gulf... then hits Alabama again...

would it be allowed to go on forever, because it did just make a slightly skewed infinity symbol....

(you can beat me for thinking of this later...

Mark
Falcons 2-0 Woot Woot!


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schmoo
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30312 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:32 PM

trying to understand all of this from the WV loop...

the big brown thingie I assume is the ridge?
In its current position it looks to me like it would steer to GA.
Is it supposed to move further south?

Thanks for any assist in better understanding all this craziness.


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flbeachbumz
Registered User


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Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor [Re: Bloodstar]
      #30314 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:37 PM

This is the sunshine state. I live on a barrier Island and evacuations will be issued tomorrow. There goes the shortage on powdered milk!!

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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30315 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:40 PM

Quote:

trying to understand all of this from the WV loop...

the big brown thingie I assume is the ridge?
In its current position it looks to me like it would steer to GA.
Is it supposed to move further south?

Thanks for any assist in better understanding all this craziness.




You are correct. That brownish area north of Jeanne is the high pressure system everyone keeps talking about.

My question is that also a high currently over FL, and if so, where will it go. Will the high from the north continue to push the high over FL out into the Gulf? If so, it would make a path to FL for Jeanne and provide a steering current for the possible yet to come Ivan v3.0.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Jeanne Forecast [Re: Ed in Va]
      #30316 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:41 PM

First off you cant go by the exact points that the NHC has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the NHC I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler SSTs this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by Frances plus Frances was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised.


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Vladimirr
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30317 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM

Quote:

trying to understand all of this from the WV loop...

the big brown thingie I assume is the ridge?
In its current position it looks to me like it would steer to GA.
Is it supposed to move further south?

Thanks for any assist in better understanding all this craziness.




Here's another water vapor loop of the same area.

You can see the dry air (blue area) pushing south as the day progresses. This is representative of the high-pressure ridge. If the ridge stopped dead in its tracks, then the hurricane would steer more north than the forecast path. However, as it is currently forecast, it should push south enough for a Florida landfall.

How far south the ridge pushes, and how well it sticks together, will determine how far north or south this thing goes. Which was the same case with Frances.


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


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Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor [Re: Bloodstar]
      #30318 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM

No, not Alabama again!!! No, not Ivan again!!!

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30319 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:44 PM

Here's another WV Loop.

Short answer: the brown thingy does not show the ridge per se, as you can't really "see" a ridge; it shows dry air which is indicative of a building (or receding) ridge.

The water vapor images display the earth in a manner that correlates to quantity of water vapor in the upper portions of the atmosphere (25,000 feet and higher in general). The actual numbers displayed on the water vapor images correspond to temperature but there is no direct relationship between these values and the temperatures of clouds (as is the case for infrared images) since this channel doesn't really "see" clouds but "sees" high-level water vapor instead. The most useful tidbit to be gained from the water vapor images is the locations of storm systems and the jet stream. Another useful tidbit is aided by the color scale used on the images. In general, regions displayed in shades of red are VERY dry in the upper atmosphere and MAY correlate to crisp blue skies from a ground perspective. On the contrary, regions displayed in shades of blue or green are indicative of lots of high-level moisture and may also indicate cloudiness. This cloudiness could simply be high-level cirrus types or serious storms. That determination cannot be gained from this image by itself but could easily be determined when used in conjunction with the other channels.

Here is an in-depth explanation of a "weather briefing", but there are multiple links which should prove useful in understanding the weather. Hope this helps.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Fletch
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne Forecast [Re: scottsvb]
      #30320 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:49 PM

Nice job Scott. You'll excuse me if I hope you are wrong. However, I agree with everything you stated.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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schmoo
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Vladimirr]
      #30321 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM

nevermind
thanks LI Phil
I'll study up on those links

Thanks!
I also see some dark blue directly under Jeanne.
Is the what would turn her north as opposed to going west?
I don't see anything in FL that would keep her from going across the state if that upper area keeps pushing south.

Edited by schmoo (Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Frank P]
      #30322 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM

Ok, here's the convincing argument I have to come up with regarding our trip to Port St. Joe's (I'm supposed to leave tomorrow). Our local met just said that the track would more than likely be pushed more to the west at 5pm which would more than likely put it near the general area of Pt. St. Joe's Monday. If they issue a hurricane watch for that area, wouldn't visitors have to leave???? Or could it be a weak tropical storm by that point? Even if it DOES come onshore further north, won't the Panhandle have some nasty weather from this thing?
My head hurts.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30323 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM

LI Phil... you guys do a great job of teaching us newbies.

I keep reading this site and maybe one day I won't just be hacking at all this...

AdmittedHacker


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