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Recon is finding Milton continues to intensify and may become a Cat 5 at any time. Forecast of a turn towards Central Florida almost unanimous among the better models. Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Helene) , Major: 10 (Helene) Florida - Any: 10 (Helene) Major: 10 (Helene)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Steering Currents [Re: LanceW]
      #30346 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM

I am with Lance on this - Charley was 15 miles South and Frances was about 10 miles East and North of us here in Polk County and quite frankly, I really hope that Accuweather is incorrect. Especially since I will be out of town and getting back on Sunday at 2. One hurricane, okay, we were overdue and I can take it, two hurricanes, okay, this is starting to get old - fast - three times - GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!

Seriously though, my daughter will have an awesome video diary of the hurricanes and awesome scrapbook!! Who knows, maybe she will pursue a career ....


_________________
Katie


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Katie]
      #30347 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:55 PM

It is just bad news all the way around...............see those folks up in Volusia county floating in raw sewage and gators cruising by their homes..................you probably have the same thing.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30348 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:56 PM

I have a gators swimming around where my grass use to be, and cat fish too.. Egrets are having a feast..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Dawn
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: St. Petersburg FL
Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30349 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:57 PM

Great - printing out to take to work tomorrow - have a feeling work will be crazy this weekend if Jeanne continues west and brings it track crossing over to the Tampa Bay area.

I work at the Orange-Colored Home Improvement Center - we take plywood back if it is not wet, drilled or cut. Sure will we see the same people back that returned theirs. Generators will be taken back if gas and oil has not been put in. Maybe one generator returned since Charlie - have not had any shipments of generators since Charlie. Not a plylox in site but on order.

Finally just got hardware and paint back in stock. Gald I have the weekend off.

Really enjoy this site and group of people.

Thank You for all your thoughts, info, concern for others and humor.


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30350 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:58 PM

How close to your house are these gators? Scary

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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30351 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:59 PM

Hacker, I think you are right about Jeanne's northerly movement in last three hours. See my post right above yours.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30352 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:00 PM

Maybe 100 feet.. Have a metal fence around my pool and garage though.. 2 Acres of my three acre property is under water at this time.. Though it has receded some.. Lake level has been brought down some too.. but not enough ...

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30353 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM

That is way too close for comfort. How do you get in and out of your property without endangering yourself?

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ivan [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30354 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM

I've been keeping an eye on Ivan. My girlfriend lives in Spring and her neighborhood floods in a spit of rain. 20"? I'm not seeing this myself. Maybe a few spots over the next five days around 10-12 locally. I have not seen a single piece of guidence or, for that matter, the look of the system on radar that tells me it is capable of dumping 20" in a single spot. Unless it absolutely parks for a few days and trains over one particular area, I really think 10" will be max with a general coverage of 2-7". Granted, with the conditions, that is still enough for widespread flooding; but for a local met to be saying 20" is a little sensational. Flooding will be a serious problem even with 2-4", though.

--------------------
Jim


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: Redbird]
      #30355 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM

Ok, here it is. Please keep in mind that I am not a met, so take this forecast with a grain of salt (which is how I like my crow).

Jeanne will continue on her westward trek towards the Bahamas and Florida for the next 36 hours or so, tracking across Great Abaco Island. During this time, she will strengthen from a CAT II to a CAT III, perhaps getting as strong as 130 mph sustained. After 36 hours, the ridge will be relaxed enough to permit a WNW, then NW turn. By 36 hours, Florida will begin to feel the first effects from Jeanne. This will be approximately 8 am on Saturday morning.

Jeanne will then take the NW trek towards Florida, landfalling somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Cocoa Beach as a CAT III (~125 MPH winds) Sunday morning between 8 and 12 noon. She will go inland, but will begin making a NNW turn while inland; Jeanne will maintain hurricane force winds throughout her trek up the coast line, during which time she will head north and then NNE and exit Florida near the FL/GA border...winds at this time will still be >74, still a minimal hurricane. She will not remain over Florida for more than four hours...

Once in the open Atlantic, Jeanne will increase in forward speed and regain CAT II status on a track that will take her towards the Outer Banks. She will landfall a second time near Cape Lookout with 100 MPH winds, just barely missing Cape Fear on her way. I would expect this to be midday on Monday. She will continue to hug the coast just offshore of the Delmarva and Cape May, NJ as a minimal hurricane. This should be by Monday evening. She will then take a more easterly trek and pass just south of Montauk Point Tuesday morning, still a CAT I, finally barely narrowly missing Cape Cod Tuesday night.

Florida may take quite a whallop as may the Outer Banks, but the main threat will be heavy rains in areas that don't need it, causing serious flooding, and gales all the way up the coast from Cape May through Cape Cod. Surge could be a problem for Florida, but not really a factor anywhere else, but high seas (15'+ waves in some places) will further erode beaches.

-----------------------------------------

Well, there you have it. My first "real" stab at a forecast. It's alot closer to me than I would like it, so that's why it will probably be wrong! I need some new crow recipies which I am sure to get with this one.

Everyone stay safe and pay close attention to the NHC forecasts...they're the only ones to trust...all others should be taken in conjunction with the NHC's.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30356 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM

LOL thats my back yard.. I live on the lake, but the yard and the lake are one right now.. I go out my front yard and everything is dry and best part.. no gators..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30357 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:05 PM

Good that you have some margin of safety..............we don't need Jeanne to come in and make this whole state a giant lake.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30358 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:09 PM

Thanks for the forecast LI Phi. I will take that home with me and put it together with the locals and NHC. I sure am glad that I found this site. I grew up here on the coast, but it doesn't seem to get any easier as I get older.
I wish the best for all
Kathy


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gailmm
Unregistered




Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30359 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM

Well this all just sucks and I hope you are wrong. I was feeling so good that our house in Satellite Beach near Melbourne survived with just a few missing shingles, and here we go again. Many of our neighbors are still trying to get their houses fixed.

I'm a complete novice at this-is Jeanne a much smaller storm than Frances? Can we expect hurricane-force winds for a shorter period of time, and not as far out from the eyewall?

Thanks to all for providing a great place to get some insight and a bit of humor when needed.


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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30360 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM

Just got this in my email box. See attachment

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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: gailmm]
      #30361 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:12 PM

With resident moderators here who have lots of experience, you are in a good place to get answers.............these guys burn the midnite oil for us.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Steering Currents [Re: rhendryx]
      #30362 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:13 PM

what attatchment?

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30363 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM

I think this chart, http://www.sfwmd.gov/newsr/district_rain_board.gif
shows the issue with Lake Toho. I am afraid the whole Upper Kissimmee basin is stressed to the max. Reedy Creek near my home in Poinciana is still way over flood stage. I have to admit that if Jeanne gives us a heavy does of rain, I am not entirely sure the bridge over Reedy Creek at Pleasent Hill Road will remain passable. That would effectively cut off my neighborhood from the rest of the county. I am hoping that she stays east of my location. However, I am concerned about a very close center pass or a pass to the west right now.

--------------------
Jim


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FireAng
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30364 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM

I was going to ask the same thing

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StormKrone
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 34
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: gailmm]
      #30365 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:22 PM

I guess I should change my nick to "GypsyKrone" to reflect my many travels... I lived in Satellite Beach through my high school years, and began my hurricane experience there...

Also spent 5 years in Houston. Rain there can cause severe flooding... especially on one part of I-10 downtown... can disable 18-wheelers in a flash. Fortunately, the flood waters seem to recede fairly quickly. The next day all you can see is a wetspot on the underpass wall. That is, unless things have changed a lot in the infrastructure since 1993.

Ya know, I don't post but minimally.. but it is for sure I am here being my usual wallflower self. My roommate thinks I have a 'feller' on here... I tell her, ya'll are ALL my 'fellers'..thanks for hosting a grand neighborhood.

SK


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