Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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NRL's "rounded" track has been updated with the 5 am advisory:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
While this is probably a good depiction and maybe even a 'better' depiction of her path, it *is* still bringing the eyewall too close for comfort to E Orlando which has already had a direct hit of the eye-wall and puts the East Eye wall right over the coast, also areas that suffered so badly with . NONE of these depictions can depict the misery and costs and yes, even loss of life of the real thing.. None of the lines on this map can depict what it will feel like (or does for earlier storm victims) how it feels to return to a pile of rubble instead of a home. And it isn't *just* Orlando even though it is home to me, it is much of an entire state that is suffering again, psychologically now, physically this weekend.
Remember, these lines, curved or not represent an approximate center of an *area* of fear and uncertainty and pain and misery and of lives changed.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Corrected... on third cup of coffee ;-)
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
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Good Mornin all!
Scott has your forecast changed at all from yesterday afternoon as far as a landfall between pompano bch and jupiter?
Thanks,
Kathy
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Those maps are awesome..BUT>>>>. don't place emphasis on linking a straight line from one forecast point to the next. The hurricane center themselves cautioned against this:
Quote from the 5pm discussion:
"USERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS
DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND
BECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN
IMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS"
This would make a landfall MUCH further south on the Florida coast than the apparent St Augustine strike as viewed on 's map (possibly the Melbourne area, followed by a scrape up the coast ala David in 1979)
--Lou
Updated with curved path. Will continue to refine the tracks. Thanks to everyone for the feedback.
Full size available at www.skeetobite.com/weather
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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he was up so late last night you probably wont hear from him until atleast noon or so. I saw multiple posts between 12;00 last night up until 2:30 ish in the a.m. I read most of them and it kinda sounded like he was still sticking to his forecast track from yesterday afternoon. go to your search page and under find members type in scottsvb it will show you all his posts with the last one being first. Hes really good.
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
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Thanks....his forecast puts Jeanne right in my front door
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I have read over and over again how the models have been consistently right biased.......
Is there truth to that and if so does anyone think it will affect THIS track?
Yes, there is truth to that. Most of the previous storms this hear have been 'adjusted' repeatedly to the West because the models and forecasts based in part upon those models are biased 'right' or East. This is why there is a lot of movement of the track to the left. When the actual track is known, the models are 'reprogrammed' with better data regarding current conditions and they spit out new lines, often left of their previous lines. The , uses those lines as a guide to their own lines and draw their lines further left.
As the lines get shorter (closer to the real position), the lines usually don't have to be moved much and have less bias. I guess what I'm saying here is the lines just depict *guesses* and the guesses are often skewed to the right because the computer guesses are based upon a combination of incomplete or even incorrect data coupled with our lack of understanding of how nature really works and our programmers, who write the model software), inability to translate what we *do* know into a form that computers can 'understand'.
So, yes, they are biased and yes, it will affect this and future forecast track estimates. The track itself, the real one doesn't know or care about our forecasts. Nature laughs, jogs, meanders "bombs" and races acording to her own rules.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Lets hope hes off a little, but from what Ive seen from him lately with all the canes hes been pretty accurate. Im very curious to see what course she takes after landfall. Weve been pretty darn lucky over in the Tampa Bay area so far.Good luck to you!
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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One thing I have noticed is that says (and to a lesser extent, UKMET) consistently seem to be moving these storms too fast. Is that a flaw within the models themselves, or simply the data they are programmed with?
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Ricreig
User
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Updated with curved path. Will continue to refine the tracks. Thanks to everyone for the feedback.
Skeetobite....your maps are and continue to improve from 'dammed good' to 'awesomely great' but I hope you have liability insurance.... Someone is going to sue you for 'moving' the hurricane from the coast to 'right over my house'! 
Thanks for all of your efforts, they really do help people better understand the potential effects of this and other storms, upon them. Your maps better depict and encourage the perception of an AREA rather than a point or line as it pertains to the storm(s) you depict.
Your abilities continue to develop and I see you now understand about arc segments and not just line segments <grin> Good show!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Corrected... on third cup of coffee ;-)
...and how many No-Doze?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Happy Birthday to you, Happy Birthday to you, Happy Birthday dear Colleen, now let's blow Jeanne out to sea.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Thanks for all of your efforts, they really do help people better understand the potential effects of this and other storms, upon them. Your maps better depict and encourage the perception of an AREA rather than a point or line as it pertains to the storm(s) you depict.
Your abilities continue to develop and I see you now understand about arc segments and not just line segments <grin> Good show!
I second that! hes doing an awesome job!! 
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Updated with curved path. Will continue to refine the tracks. Thanks to everyone for the feedback.
Yeah - tweak those bezier points a bit - if you're not using Photoshop's vector shape layers, you should be 
Of course, every update brings it closer to a Melbourne landfall - I'm none to thrilled with Jeanne about that.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I do not claim to be a "Weather Guru" or anything like that, but I just don't see how jeane will turn north with what I see on the water vapor loop.
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
One thing I have noticed is that says (and to a lesser extent, UKMET) consistently seem to be moving these storms too fast. Is that a flaw within the models themselves, or simply the data they are programmed with?
I think it is a combination of both. I don't program for a living anymore, but program bugs, incomplete or incorrect data, transcription errors, malfunctioning equipment, and a whole bunch more coupled with a real lack of knowledge by both the mets and the programmers understanding of all of the realities of nature, all combine to make errors.
The models you mentioned often don't 'understand' the effects of future changes in the strength speed of change and location of data asssociated with distant but significant ridges and troughs often hundreds or even thousands of miles distant. Some do better with the future, some do great for near-term events, some do fine with 'normal' weather but as the storm gets stronger, perform poorly.
For these reasons and more, we have to look at the whole bunch of models and apply our own experience, training and common sense using the models as a tool like a mechanic uses a wrench or screwdriver....the models by themselves are useless in the same way that a wrench can't fix a car, but as a tool, both are valuable in the hands of a skilled person.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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FYI: over the years I have learned to rely less and less on water vapor images. I used to follow them all the time but learned they are very misleading. But, that is just my observation.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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me either! It might not! We should know more late this afternoon. Depends on speed of the cane etc etc. 8;00 update says its still on a continued westerly track but has shifted the cone a little to the east.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Thank you, Richard. It's tempting to rely on the models too much, when there are so many uncertainties. There is a certain relief at being able to point to a line on a map and say, "There. It's going there." But in reality that line is just a guidance, and not gospel truth, and it's easy to forget that.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I do not claim to be a "Weather Guru" or anything like that, but I just don't see how jeane will turn north with what I see on the water vapor loop.
While water vapor loops do help visualize where the highs and lows and wind patterns are, it is often what you can't see that has the greatest effect. First, the high pressure areas often have complex shapes that are invisible in the WV loops mostly because High Pressure areas are often dry and contain little moisture making them 'invisible'. Secondly, WV loops are based upon data on the amount of water in the upper atmosphere unlike the visible and IR images which tend to be visualizations of reflected energy from much lower levels of the atmosphere. As hurricanes are affected more by mid-levels of the atmosphere, the WV loops often do not predict the real movers of hurricane weather. It is just one more good tool for use in forecasting, but by itself, it doesn't tell the whole story.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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