scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Clark do you know if they got the gulf stream jet out there tonight to put the data into the OZ models? I havent heard anything and my sources both say yes and no. Great huh?
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Okay..gotcha. At this time, I think they're splitting hairs and I don't think they have that much time to work this thing. So, as the 2am advisory says, the watches will go up at 5am, then I guess they will have to start evacuating pretty darned quickly.
I'm with you on the NNW/N turn after it comes inland. I just don't see that H giving it much room to move north, and she's starting to move along (even just 1mph faster) quicker so I think that Jeanne's going to win the battle.
Didn't we go through this same exact scenario with ??? Turn to the north, skirt the coast, than BAM! Door slammed shut and she came inland and exited just above Tampa Bay.
Maybe it's deja vu. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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Well Jeanne moved 24.7 miles west in 3 hours.. or a little over 8 mph. says she is moving @ 10 mph. Landfall is 560 miles away... she's not going to make it in 48 hours at this speed. We need to see 12 to 13 mph for that to happen. Otherwise Jeanne will still be in the Atlantic as the ridge weakens... so there may still be some hope to avoid a landfall.
Let's see what tomorrow holds.
AdmittedHacker
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Well you see the flow in the gulf,,,,well continued more wnw then NW into the trough over the plains and its lifting out to some degree. Reinforcing pulse will dive down into the plains tomorow and will push it more to the east. I just dont see the immediate turn to the NNW. If it does skirt the coast it will be because it will turn wnw over the Bahamas and then go more NW-NNW along the coast. The models that turn it so quickly within 6hours show a strong southerly flow over florida, I dont think it will turn that sharp at first.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 06:17 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Also since recon wasnt out there since 24 hrs ago,,,, The pressure probably went up to 972 (abouts), Now its gone back down to 969mb. Not saying this happend but it looks better off then it did 6 hrs ago. Sats give us a pretty good guess at the mb that it shows us but recon is the overall best of course.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Shes about 45-54hrs from landfall unless she turns more wnw early on and goes more N. Right now saying 10pm-4am sunday. She should move up to 12mph
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 06:12 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Now is that funny as hell. I just noticed it. Look at the Jeanne tropical suite models. Its on the front page link. See where it says below.....NHC Advisories and county Emergency Management Statements Supercede this product. This graphic should complement, not replace discussions. Then it says, If anything on this graphic causes confusion, just ignore the entire product. NOW THAT IS FUNNY..lmfao why do they even show it then????? LOL
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
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Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
The landfall point is way off without a curved/rounded track line.
In the last thread I posted a link to the CURVED NRL track .
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Actually, she's moving at 7mph or 10km/hr. I would expect to see a continuing trend of forward speed like we did with ...the is pretty good at these things, if they say she's going to speed up I bet by 11am today she's moving at 12-13 mph.
As for the northward turn, we'll just have to wait and see. My eyes hurt, the sats are down and I need to sleep. 
Look for bumps and bruises along the way...I believe that took her sweet time after the Bahamas and the models had her turning to the north almost to the very end.
I'm not saying that Jeanne will do this, I'm just saying that it's a possiblility.
Back in the morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see that it's started another loop-de-loop ................
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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The models seem to be split...with and UKMET being the more consistent in bringing it across the state, and the others on the state, offshore, onshore, etc.
The 00Z run is not one I'm impressed with...it's not picking up the more westerly movement that we've seen for almost 5 hours now.
I would think that they would have to almost split the forecast right down the middle since they're not all in agreement. And I think that has a lot to do with the High/Ridge/whatchamacallit.
Okay, now I'm REALLY going to bed. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Here is my forcast for Jeanne. She will enter Florida at Merrit Island at 100 mph. She will then take I95 north and exit at Palm Coast out to the Atlantic and then continue NNE into North Carolina. My first forcast, lets see how accurate this one is......
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Updated maps
Full size available at www.skeetobite.com
Note: We will be experimenting with curved paths instead of point to point track lines. Limitations of our software may delay this upgrade, but we'll figure it out!
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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I love your maps don't get me wrong, but you have Jeanne as a direct hit on my house!!!!!! Can we change that map a bit? .....:(
MaryAnn
Quote:
Updated maps
Full size available at www.skeetobite.com
Note: We will be experimenting with curved paths instead of point to point track lines. Limitations of our software may delay this upgrade, but we'll figure it out!
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Recent infrared seems to show the deep convection increasing after a weakining over the nightime hours. We are shell-shocked here in Orlando. The slightest change to the track a little west will have this going right over Orlando.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Those maps are awesome..BUT>>>>. don't place emphasis on linking a straight line from one forecast point to the next. The hurricane center themselves cautioned against this:
Quote from the 5pm discussion:
"USERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS
DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND
BECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN
IMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS"
This would make a landfall MUCH further south on the Florida coast than the apparent St Augustine strike as viewed on 's map (possibly the Melbourne area, followed by a scrape up the coast ala David in 1979)
--Lou
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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NRL's "rounded" track has been updated with the 5 am advisory:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
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The Dave Cave
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: East Orlando, FL
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Long time lurker, first time poster here.
First, thanks to all for your remarkably informative posts! Intelligent interactive discussion like this is rare when dealing with what can develop into a rather emotional situation. It has helped me maintain what's left of my sanity over the last few weeks.
What is the take of the members of the board about the recent changes in track. Yes, I know that the track is the "Official" version but recent changes appear to indicate that there is potential for Cat 1 force winds in Orlando. I have a niece's wedding to get to in PA and would have to leave by 10 AM today to get there in time (driving, gulp!). I can ride out up north for the return trip out of harm's way in PA but don't want to go if we are expecting HF winds in O'do. Since the latest official track is trending more east, does it look to continue moving that way or, in your vaired opinions, do conditions look to keep it more to the coastal/slight inland course? With the course right now, I would think that O'do would be right on the west edge of the HF windfield. Am I hallucinating?
Thanks for any opinions you can offer! And again, thanks for your continued erudite discussion!
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"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"
Hunter S. Thompson
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Recent infrared seems to show the deep convection increasing after a weakining over the nightime hours. We are shell-shocked here in Orlando. The slightest change to the track a little west will have this going right over Orlando.
AGAIN!!!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
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The street map shows last nights advisory of 5pm...but the page says 5am this mornin???
26.2n
80.1w
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COgal
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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I have read over and over again how the models have been consistently right biased.......
Is there truth to that and if so does anyone think it will affect THIS track?
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