Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Sorry, Lois....that comment made me LOL! I would say that at the very least your county should have tropical storm watches up. I don't see why they wouldn't do that.
But...what do I know? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Richard, lois cane, AKA bobbi, is registered...she can't log on at work...
Darned....that means I've been courting the wrong 'lois'  See, an old man like me *never* gets lucky...courts the wrong gal
I am so glad she is a member, she'd be sorely missed if she wasn't. Her being registered means a greater likelyhood of her being around next time as well. Thanks for the feedback.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Earle
Unregistered
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Hello,
I'm in Mt. Pleasant SC, just several miles south of where Gaston made landfall. Didn't make many headlines, but the 8hrs of 50mph sustained winds and foot of rain made a mess of my place.
I've been lurking on your discussion since this morning. Very impressed with the knowledge being shared. I'm rather shy in posting to message boards, and I don't know if it's helpful in answering your question, but the SC State Climatologist in a message around 8am this morning had this to say about the superensemble model:
"Access to this model output is restricted and cannot be redistributed when permission is granted for its use. For that reason, althrough the State Climate Office will use this tool in decision-making from time to time, I will be unable to display the output. However, I will do my best to explain where the track is without giving you a picture if I can do so with verbal efficiency. That being said..... the model from last night is to the west of the official forecast and remains onshore through FL, GA, SC, and NC before exiting the US mainland near Cape Hatteras. Just another model.. but has been the most consistent and accurate so far this year."
You all take care and be safe.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
im bobbistorm.. loiscane.. i use lois during the day for strange reasons
thanks. bobbi
...darned...all the 'good ones'' are already taken  Us old farts just never get the girl....boo hoo. I'm glad you are a regular, your posts sounded like they needed to be here a whole bunch. TTYL
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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That is very true. To the best of my limited recollection all the storms this season went farther west than expected. I do know for sure though that the did a great job pegging like 4-5 days out. I think UKMET had it in the panhandle too. They seemed to lose their efficiency though the closer the storm seems to get.
Course I could be TOTALLY wrong.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/20/Floridian/The_storm_chaser.shtml
It's a wonderful story...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 04:46 PM)
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lois
Unregistered
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i do it to annoy Burns... who knows who he is.. and who he is.. and who he is ...
and to amuse someone... but i do have a problem staying logged in sometimes so just easier
do u know how LONG L O N G 20 seconds is ...btw
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I've been lurking on your discussion since this morning. Very impressed with the knowledge being shared. I'm rather shy in posting to message boards, and I don't know if it's helpful in answering your question, but the SC State Climatologist in a message around 8am this morning had this to say about the superensemble model: ....
Welcome, and see, it wasn't hard to make a valuable contribution. Do it again, seriously. ALL of us have *something* of value to share. Some make dammed good forecasts but confuse the 'unwashed masses', Others have a good ability to translate cyber geek talk to something meaningful, a few, like , are gifted in making a picture out of a thousand words, and a few, like me, have a thousand words that can't be made into a picture.
Welcome aboard!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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lois
Unregistered
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thanks phil
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
look at the two systems in the upper part of the water vapor loop moving north ... not good
not saying til someone else does but when things go up.. in the atmosphere...energy is transfered elsewhere
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lois
Unregistered
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and if anyone knows current status of models.. please tell, hint or draw a picture
rhyme it..just share please
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
and if anyone knows current status of models.. please tell, hint or draw a picture
rhyme it..just share please
bobbi, check who's online occasionally...when you see Clark or Jason Kelley, throw up that question...
since that info is proprietary, no one here (unless they're willing to plunk down 5 figures) can get access to it...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ocala
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
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Thanks for the info.
I found this site the beginning of this season. Finding it very interesting, and learning a lot, but still very confused by all the terminology.
Thanks for all the information and links provided by this site.
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nandav
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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So how concerned should we be in SW Florida (from Charlotte County down)? Nobody here is very concerned .. and after Charlotte County had to evacuate before , schools were closed, etc.. and the weather here was beautiful. .. I think people could get a little indifferent. Plus we're all kind of numb anyway... I don't want us to be in another scenario where we have little time to prepare, should this thing go further SW than NE!
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I know I said yesterday that I didn't think that the activity in the central gulf would amount to anything and I'm still sticking to my guns on that; BUT it does look kind of interesting out there this morning. It still looks to be left over moisture from the outer circulation (or bands) of but it does look ominous. It seems like that moisture will have to go somewhere. Maybe caught up in Jeanne's circulation? Any thoughts?
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lois
Unregistered
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well... since he is rarely around during important times in my life
i am single and open to offers
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
So how concerned should we be in SW Florida (from Charlotte County down)? Nobody here is very concerned .. and after Charlotte County had to evacuate before , schools were closed, etc.. and the weather here was beautiful. .. I think people could get a little indifferent. Plus we're all kind of numb anyway... I don't want us to be in another scenario where we have little time to prepare, should this thing go further SW than NE!
I would say that no one in Florida, anywhere in the SE US should be unconcerned. However, if I was going to be in Florida during a landfalling hurricane, this is one time I would be asking you, what's your address and do you have a room for rent this weekend? Keep posted and you won't be surprised regardless of the eventual trac, Las Vegas odds are in your favor this time, but even the house loses sometimes. If you remember that, you'll be OK.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I know I said yesterday that I didn't think that the activity in the central gulf would amount to anything and I'm still sticking to my guns on that; BUT it does look kind of interesting out there this morning. It still looks to be left over moisture from the outer circulation (or bands) of but it does look ominous. It seems like that moisture will have to go somewhere. Maybe caught up in Jeanne's circulation? Any thoughts?
Take a look at this wv loop. While the ridge continues to pound down on Jeanne and keep her moving west...her own outflow is preventing the trof from sliding further east...
Damn wv...I don't like what I'm seeing in terms of any recurvature in the next 48 hours...
Maybe a real met could tell me I'm wrong (and I hope to hell I am).
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
well... since he is rarely around during important times in my life
i am single and open to offers
Yippee...Heres my phone number <edited by Moderator wannabe> , so give me a call!!!!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Earle....thank you for that post. Why in the world they won't let it be seen is beyond me.  But at least SOMEONE had the guts to put it into words, which is all we're asking for.
Now....just a few minutes ago, Tom Terry said that because of the wide margins between the /UKMET and the /GFDL models, that *might* mean that the track would be in the CENTER of those two scenarios.
In other words, ala . Right straight through the middle of the state. I think he's *trying* to hint at a further south landfall...like WPB. If you read between the lines, that's what I think he's trying to tell us. And I have to say, he's one of the best mets out there. Doesn't panic, doesn't alarm...just tells it like it is. "Folks, this is NO storm to fool around with, and if you're tired of having to leave, get over it because you're REALLY going to be in a mess if you DON'T. We're ALL tired, but we still have to be ON TOP OF THINGS."
Amen, Tom.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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lois are you listening to Brian Norcross? Did he say we WILL have warnings up at 5:00pm?
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