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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Change the attention for a just a second [Re: LI Phil]
      #30984 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 PM

So do you think it will not turn and stay west all the way?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
WV Loops [Re: LI Phil]
      #30985 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 PM

Oh, Phil...I'm with you on that one. I do NOT like what I see. That northern door is about to get slammed shut. And to the north of Jeanne, it's STARTING to push her even FASTER westward.

I think the increase in forward speed has begun.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Change the attention for a just a second [Re: LI Phil]
      #30986 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:19 PM

Quote:

While the ridge continues to pound down on Jeanne and keep her moving west...her own outflow is preventing the trof from sliding further east...

Damn wv...I don't like what I'm seeing in terms of any recurvature in the next 48 hours...

Maybe a real met could tell me I'm wrong (and I hope to hell I am).


Phil, IF this turns out to be meaningful, and it may be, it just moves the track away from the Central East coast. This won't help Stuart or Ft Pierce and PB much, but it might mitigate the damage in the more Northern coastal towns. C'ant win for losing. I hate being spared at the expense of others, but I do appreciate being spared! BUT, it is still just a forecast until it happens so it remains a question for all of us. For now, I'm forced to assume the NHC viewpoint is what I need to plan for and pray it is just another exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot.....unfortunately.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
SFWMD Models [Re: Ricreig]
      #30987 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:19 PM

Could some one please post the link for the model tracks from SFWMD? The one I have is for Ivan and I can't get back to the link for Jeanne. Help!

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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: my heart belongs to superman but... [Re: Kent]
      #30988 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:19 PM

Kent---if it keeps moving the way it is, I would expect to see some kind of watch/warnings for your area. It would be foolish not to do it, especially after you look at that WV loop that Phil posted.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: WV Loops [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30989 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:20 PM

I'm saying no such thing...all I am saying is that to my untrained eye (I pretty much ignore models...you can just look at the atmosphere and see what's going on, once you know what to look for), I can see no reason for any northward turn for a while...

The WV loops can tell us a lot!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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luki
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
Re: Hits in a season [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30990 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:21 PM

up here mets arent really pinpointing a landfall location,just stressing that this one is gonna be way too close for comfort,and today and tomorrow prefebly today is the time to prepare,basically were being told this will be another Frances effect for us here in JAX only stronger

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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle
Re: Article on Cantore [Re: LI Phil]
      #30991 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:21 PM

Hey Phil. Thanks for that article on Cantore. All I can say is WOW. I respect him all the more.

Actually, thanks go to Frank P. He originally posted the link. I just thought it was worth a repost!

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 01:22 PM)


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Earle
Unregistered




Re: Hits in a season [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30992 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:24 PM

Quote:

Earle....thank you for that post. Why in the world they won't let it be seen is beyond me. But at least SOMEONE had the guts to put it into words, which is all we're asking for.

Colleen,

Your welcome. Hope I don't get the SC State Climatologist in trouble.

This link explains the proprietary nature of the model.
http://www.techtransfer.fsu.edu/showcase/weather.html
Briefly, an FSU researcher developed the model, the University patented it and then licensed it to a private company Weather Predict, Inc. The company either provides the model or model output for a fee and the University gets a royalty.

It's all about the money. Most likely the research that led to the development of the model was funded with public (i.e., taxpayers') money. Pretty common practice.

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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Ricreig]
      #30993 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:26 PM

Remember the reporter who was standing totally exposed to the elements during Francis so much so that she had to duck down and hang onto a post in order to not become a flying object? Her name is Jill Martin and she just reported that according to the Dolphins Headcoach Dave Wamstadt that the game is still on with the Steelers for Sunday at 1:00 in Miami......

What do they know that we don't? hmmmm....


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon [Re: Kent]
      #30994 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:27 PM

Kent...this is straight from the horse's mouth:

Quote:

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS INCLUDES METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE CITIES OF WEST PALM BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.





That's probably what Bryan Norcross was talking about.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Kent]
      #30995 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:30 PM

Quote:

Remember the reporter who was standing totally exposed to the elements during Francis so much so that she had to duck down and hang onto a post in order to not become a flying object? Her name is Jill Martin and she just reported that according to the Dolphins Headcoach Dave Wamstadt that the game is still on with the Steelers for Sunday at 1:00 in Miami......

What do they know that we don't? hmmmm....




Dave Wanstedt knows only slightly less about the weather than he does football...

Ricky Williams may like to hit the hash pipe every now and then, but even he knew when it was time to bail...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hits in a season [Re: Earle]
      #30996 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:30 PM

I don't think you'll get him in trouble...if he posted it somewhere that you could copy it, than he is probably okay.

I know it's "all about the money", that's what makes me so darned mad. We're talking about people's lives here, and the almight dollar is more important.

Ok, vented....(not directed at you by the way!) feel better, now I can go get some stuff done. Which I've been saying since 8:00am this morning.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30997 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:31 PM

I think this exerpt from the NHC sums up the forecast pretty well:

W PALM BEACH FL 1 20 3 X 24 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL X 20 4 1 25

Phil, you and your WV loop....now the NHC is starting to look at it!!!!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: LI Phil]
      #30998 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:32 PM

ROFLOL...YOU CRACK ME UP!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Eye having problems [Re: MikeC]
      #30999 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:33 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

You can see the eye is having problems,
There is not the firing of Thunderstorms at the core,
It looks like dry air has gotten entrained in the center.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Track [Re: LI Phil]
      #31000 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:34 PM

Hey Phil,

This is what I said very early this a.m.
Quote:

I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right.




--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31001 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 PM

Coleen,
eeewww. your probably right...

and Richard:
... as far as that "exercise to find a place to put all of the several hundreds of dollars worth of non-perishable food that tastes like yuk and that even the cat refuses to eat, but doesn't rot..."

Can I seriously suggest Haiti?


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Track [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #31002 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 PM

Quote:

Hey Phil,

This is what I said very early this a.m.
Quote:

I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right.







And it is even more prescient now...

Where's the Dolphin avatar?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Re: Statement from Miami NWS @ 12 Noon [Re: Ricreig]
      #31003 - Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 PM

It's the same numbers as Frances had. WPB and CB are the same or it runs WPD FP and then CB
Almost exactly as Frances


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