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Area in Gulf (92L) Up to 80%. This will likely be mostly a rain event on the east side (perhaps well east) of landfall later.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Zeta) , Major: 292 (Laura) Florida - Any: 979 (Michael) Major: 979 (Michael)
40.5N 62.0W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 998mb
Moving:
Ne at 38 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Kent]
      #31024 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:00 PM

2PM update posted. Jeanne moving west at 12mph. This should impact the update at 5pm. And eventhough I'm a Dolfan I know the 'Fins have a good shot at not winning more than 5 games this year.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Vladimirr
Unregistered




Re: 18z UKMET [Re: Unregistered User]
      #31025 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:01 PM

GFDL has shifted a *LOT* as well!

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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #31026 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:01 PM

From what I have learned in the past 2 weeks, Looking at the WV loop, I do not see how there is any hane that Jeanne is going to go north. What I am not factoring here?

Praying for you folks....


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: AgentB]
      #31027 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 PM

At the rate of this year's landfalling hurricanes in Florida, the Dolphins will be real lucky to play 5 home games...

she speeding up to 12 mph, just like the NHC predicted....


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Kent]
      #31028 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 PM

I need the radio station? Do you have it?
Thanks

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #31029 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 PM

>>> You and Phil seem good. Let me ask you a question. With that high pressure ridge, does it look like she will go west all the way towards land and not make that little curve?

It's all in the timing...depends on how fast Jeanne wants to move towards Florida before the trof comes and picks her up north...I would still stick with the NHC forecast over any others, so pay STRICT attention to what they say. And if your local NWS starts issuing warnings and evac orders...

need I say more?

The 5:00 discussion will be worth it's weight in gold...methinks.

If you're bored...go to

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

the front page lists the most recent Dvorak #s for all tracked storms...they can give you a clue when a storm is in it's nascent stages if it will get a name...and for fully developed monsters whether they are getting stronger or weaker. If you want, I'll provide the links on how to read the Dvorak's.

If you click on "Imagery" for the atlantic basin, you get access to all views of the tropical and subtropical atlantic from the equator and above. These are great for quick updates on model loops...they can be up to an hour old, but they are wonderful tools to see what the atmosphere is doing.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: 18z UKMET [Re: Unregistered User]
      #31030 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:04 PM

Now that's one funky track...it seemingly goes out to sea south of the Outer Banks and they takes a sharp turn due north.??

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #31031 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:06 PM

The Ukmet has only shifted ever so slightly to the NE. The GFDL on the other hand has shifted more to the NE and since the NHC loves that model they will extend the watches up the coast to probably GA-SC border, but Im not sure. Anyways models will shift from run to run, dont take what you see now as a final destination.

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Pam in Vero
Unregistered




Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: LI Phil]
      #31032 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:09 PM

Here we go again, they are saying landfall between Vero Beach and Sebastian and evac starting at 8am from barrier islands and low lying areas up to US1 Anyone leaving the state is suposed to leave now. It seems all are tired and more are staying this time. One good thing... this one is moving faster!! I got flood damage and roof repairs needed, why not just make it a new roof!!

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: scottsvb]
      #31033 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:09 PM

I think the GFDL and GFS are off a bit.. They are slower than other models and now that this thing has sped up some, I am leaning to a track between the NOGAPS and UKMET. The other models have been seriously skewed by the GFS handling of this storm.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: scottsvb]
      #31034 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:10 PM

Jeanne has speeded up as expected... now 12 mph. She should be right on time for her 6:00 a.m. Sunday appointment with the coastline...

AdmittedHacker


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OBShaz
Unregistered




Foray Into Ormond Beach [Re: Kent]
      #31035 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:11 PM

Just went out to grab a few last minute things. Publix and Winn-Dixie are packed. Every single gas station I looked at was full, long lines, people arguing and upset. I filled our tanks this morning in my robe. And the Hess station ran out of regular while we were there. That was interesting!

BTW, speaking of people doing stupid things, my sis-in-law returned her wood after Frances and is now upset that she has to buy more! Don't know what she was thinking.

It is good to see that my neighbors are doing something pertaining to the storm. During Charley, I watched people just sit around and do nothing. That scared them into doing something, although some of them still didn't do very much. This time, people are really paying attention. Makes me wonder what they'll do next year if there's a threat.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Pam in Vero]
      #31036 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:13 PM

Pam I need a new roof.. Insurance company said they will pay for a new roof, but we cant seem to agree on price.. They say it costs 12K to replace my roof, I have three roofing companys that say 20K. I have had three emergency dry in's and it seems like I a gonna need a fourth.. Lots of flood damage here too.. Insurance just sent me their adjusters summary and its way off.. Almost 50% less than what I have been quoted.. I am suppose to be in good hands, but the only hands I have seen have been in my pocket..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #31037 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:13 PM

What do the EOC's hear that may be different than what is on the news, etc? Our EOC (Highlands County) is thinking that landfall will be near Vero Beach and will reach our county before making a turn. Reason I'm asking is that before Frances our EOC said that the eye would pass over the bombing range in the county, projections were not supporting that, and in the end-the eye did pass over the range.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #31038 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:15 PM

I guess I must of messed up my estimates, because I came up with a movement of 10 MPH to get her to where she needed to be in the time frame designated.. Math was never my strong point..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Foray Into Ormond Beach [Re: OBShaz]
      #31039 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:19 PM

cant rule out the GFDL but its data is from the GFS which is alittle off on the ridge. Im looking at the trough in the plains down to Texas right now, this should slide e and ne and bend the track to the NW but over florida or sooner? Right now if she continues up to a speed of 15mph she will make florida before the NW turn but she should be by then moving wnw. Current wobbles could have a ending affect on where she will make landfall. If she wobbles to the wnw a couple times then landfall might be up by Melbourne. If she adjusts any wobbles duriing the next 12 hrs then she will impact further south towards WPB. Since I expect her to pick up more speed to 14-15mph I expect landfall in about 36-42hrs. If she wobbles some early before the turn then she will make landfall 42-48 and that would make her turn more NW sooner near Melbourne up to east of Orlando then N towards Jacksonville. Timing is everything. Right now the inverted trough over florida is sliding into the eastern gulf this should continue a more general w track for the next 24 hrs.

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Pam in Vero
Unregistered




Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #31040 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:20 PM

Sorry to hear it, I have neighbors (lots ollder) in worse shape than us. We have been running around trying to help pulling carpet and the like. Are you on the island? In Vero? Found a great Contractor...Johnny on the spot. Our agent said they go by gov. standards there and in our case...USAA standards were we are. Meaning replacement pay scale is higher for USAA. We are just the other side of IR. Figures! I am sure that will change now.

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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: 18z UKMET [Re: OBShaz]
      #31041 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:20 PM

Thanks for the SWFMD graphic. Could you please post the link?

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Droop
Unregistered




Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #31042 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:24 PM

I dont know if ya'll have realized this yet, but did you see what Ivan did to the Buoy #42040 which is moored 70 miles south of Dauphin Island, AL? The storm was so strong it broke the buoy loose and its not adrift 250 miles out in the Gulf somewhere. I heard it recieved a almost direct hit and was reporting waves of 40 to 60 feet! Amazing.

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: 18z UKMET [Re: Sadie]
      #31043 - Fri Sep 24 2004 02:25 PM

I believe that, for the most part, the UK and NOGAPS had Jeanne moving to the west the fastest, while the GFS and GFDL(run with GFS data) had her moving slower.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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