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Area in Gulf (92L) Up to 80%. This will likely be mostly a rain event on the east side (perhaps well east) of landfall later.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Zeta) , Major: 292 (Laura) Florida - Any: 979 (Michael) Major: 979 (Michael)
40.5N 62.0W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 998mb
Moving:
Ne at 38 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: Ricreig]
      #31065 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:11 PM

Good News... Maybe by the 06Z we will have some good info. The NOAA G-IV jet will be going out this afternoon and that data will be put into the 00Z models so that we can see that info at 06Z. I think we are having some serious ridge issues with the GFS.. Guess we will know then.. I am more than likely wrong, but eyeballing the Water Vapor and the present speed of the system and comparing them to the GFS makes me a little doubtful.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #31066 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:14 PM

I am an ametuer, but I just don't see this turning as quickly north, given the water vapor loop, as the NHC track.

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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: LI Phil]
      #31067 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:15 PM

Quote:


JB's forecast from this morning:

Tonight, 8:00 p.m. eastern, 26.2,74.0 965 mb
Tomorrow evening, 26.8, 78.0 955 mb
Sunday evening, 28.0 81.0 965 mb
Monday evening, 33.0 79.5 970 mb
Tuesday evening, 38.5, 73.0 985 mb
Wednesday evening, 42.0, 65.0 985 mb





Going point-to-point and figuring out where the hourly locations would be (except for wed eve which is outside the range) these numbers are very similar to the 11AM NHC forecast. Yes, I know point-to-point is not an accurate but its the best I have. Since he started at 8PM tonight, I used 8PM for each of the following evenings.

Here are the numbers based on the 11AM NHC forecast:

Fri 8PM 26.2 74.1
Sat 8PM 26.8 78.9
Sun 8PM 29.3 81.3
Mon 8PM 32.6 79.95
Tue 8PM 37.25 73.75
Wed 8PM 42.75 65.25 (extrap)


I have an Excel SS that I developed which shows the hourly points. It also figures out where a location (ie: my house) falls within the wind field.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #31068 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:17 PM

Just something on the WV loops. While they do help us sometimes see the "path" a hurricane will take, they're not always conclusive evidence of where a storm will turn or not turn. They do paint a good picture of what's going on in the atmosphere, but aren't the end all when it comes to storm movement. I'm not saying that the storm won't stay south, just that that information cannot always be garnered by watching the WV loops.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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jht off
Unregistered




Joe B [Re: Staggy]
      #31069 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:23 PM

Just curious LI Phil,

Wht did Joe B have to say about Ivan..Is he still thinking back into the gulf with a north central landfall again?


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: AgentB]
      #31070 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:23 PM

AgentB,

I should have added that disclaimer when I went on about how good the WV loops are...they are but one tool out of many which allow us to see what the earth is doing...they should NEVER be used solely to predict future events...to my mind, though, nothing is better for showing ridges and trofs and where the twain shall meet...and they're purdy too.

EDIT: JB on Ivan: " The official declaration of Ivans death will come later today. Its no matter we have to watch the gulf next week...unless 2) The disturbance that is left behind from the trof that was supposed to capture Jeanne and whisk her east comes west, in which case that will be in a nice position on its way west to try to develop. Moral is the eastern atlantic season is separate from the western season, which in this pattern can produce home brew"

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 03:27 PM)


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: LI Phil]
      #31071 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:33 PM

Question:

Why are the stores running out of vinegar? Whats that for?


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Aaron H.
Unregistered




Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: LI Phil]
      #31072 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:36 PM

2 pm advisory implies no further strengthening. Actually says "fluctuations. " Is this the NHC position right now?? Cloud tops around the center are not super cold (no whites on the Dvorak loop). Will this hold trus 'til landfall??? Thanks

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Pam in Vero
Unregistered




Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: LI Phil]
      #31073 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:36 PM

I just saw something interesting for those of us just learning. I am originally from NM. On Ch 5...our locale forcaster mentioned that a dry early spring and summer means more hurricanes for us do to the Burmuda high sitting lower than average. That makes sense, we almost blew away in the dust this summer. Thought I was back in the high desert.

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Jane219ga
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Valrico, FL
Re: Model Runs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31074 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:37 PM

Quote:

I suppose you're correct, and I thought that closing schools for Ivan was way premature, but now do they have to go the other EXTREME?
Just venting.




They did the same thing in Hillsborough but the reason given was to be able to prepare the schools as shelters for those evacuating to this area. Kind of makes sense to a certain extent.


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Pam in Vero
Unregistered




Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: Pam in Vero]
      #31075 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:41 PM

PS for those of us fighting with mold...use developer (used by hair stylists) 50-50 with water and spray on walls. You can buy it at Sally's type store.

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
School closings [Re: Jane219ga]
      #31076 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:41 PM

Lee County Schools are waiting until Sunday to decide. Last time for Frances they decided on Saturday and closed down that Monday, when there was no need. I guess they learned their lesson and are waiting a little longer this time before they make the call.

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Ocala
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
Re: School closings [Re: MissBecky]
      #31077 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:43 PM

Marion County has closed schools for Monday because they are opening the shelters to coastal evacuees tomorrow.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Vinegar shortage... [Re: Pam in Vero]
      #31078 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:45 PM

Maybe the vinegar fights mold too? Could that explain the shortage? Either that or people must be making a run on salad too...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: For Georgia coastal residents & north... [Re: Pam in Vero]
      #31079 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:45 PM

Quote:

PS for those of us fighting with mold...use developer (used by hair stylists) 50-50 with water and spray on walls. You can buy it at Sally's type store.


Wouldn't that just collect wet dandruff then?

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: School closings [Re: MissBecky]
      #31080 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:47 PM

Volusia County is waiting, too.

All this "waiting" gives me an eery feeling.

Just a footnote: when Charley was coming, my 8-year old son freaked. When Frances was coming, he was calmer and said, "The winds aren't THAT bad." Do you know what he said today when he got home from school?

"MAN, WE'RE GONNA GET SPANKED." And promptly went to our closet to set up his little area so "I won't have to do it at the last minute."

Even the KIDS are beginning to think this is normal.

I keep forgetting...is that "Thing 1" or "Thing 2"

oops...sorry, Phil...that would be Thing 2, as he is the youngest.

Edited by Colleen A. (Fri Sep 24 2004 03:54 PM)


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RONJON
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne, the evil sister of Frances? [Re: MikeC]
      #31081 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:49 PM

I'm a newbie, but I've viewed the site through the last 3 canes..regarding the track, the most consistent model that I've seen the last 2-3 days is NOGAPS. It takes the track thru WPB up to Tampa and offshore in GOM to panhandle. The newest 12Z runs of the Canadian & UKMET (sorry folks I think the UKMET track is wrong on the SFWMD site), take a "Frances" path across the state. I. like others, have noted a right-of-track bias with the GFS & GFDL this season. The high is expansive centered near Norfolk, & reminds me of the Andrew pattern in '92. The trough over the upper Midwest is lifting into Canada so I just can't see this 90 deg turn north. But, heck, whatta I know.

Intensity - It looks as if the storm is getting its act together, right in time to hook up with 84F ocean water. If it wasn't for the dry air surrounding the storm, I'd say it could bomb to a CAT 4 b4 landfall. But with the dry air, maybe strong CAT 3. I think this storm will be stronger than Frances. 1) Frances was sheared significantly over the bahamas & never really got its act together prior to landfall (remember 60 nm eye), 2) no sign shear is forecast the next 36-48 hours for Jeanne,you've got an anticyclone over top doing some nice evacuation, & the gulf stream. Now one other factor, its the 3rd week of September and not late August, so maybe ocean temps have cooled slightly but there should be enuff juice for rapid intensification before landfall. It is a smaller size storm than Frances, but she'll be stronger. Hmmm, I'm ready for crow pie.


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Jeanne, the evil sister of Frances? [Re: RONJON]
      #31082 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:53 PM

Brevard county schools are closed on Monday.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Vinegar shortage... [Re: LI Phil]
      #31083 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:54 PM

Where is Scott? I wanted a last look at his forecast! Yesterday he had it pretty close to me. I have to go home and start evacuation... LI Phill your comment about the season from hell is true! I will fire up the ol'laptop later

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Vinegar shortage... [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #31084 - Fri Sep 24 2004 03:57 PM

Maybe he's out buying vinegar.

I'm sure he'll be here shortly...around 5ish or so.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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