Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Good News... Maybe by the 06Z we will have some good info. The NOAA G-IV jet will be going out this afternoon and that data will be put into the 00Z models so that we can see that info at 06Z. I think we are having some serious ridge issues with the .. Guess we will know then.. I am more than likely wrong, but eyeballing the Water Vapor and the present speed of the system and comparing them to the makes me a little doubtful.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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I am an ametuer, but I just don't see this turning as quickly north, given the water vapor loop, as the track.
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Staggy
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Lutz, FL
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Quote:
JB's forecast from this morning:
Tonight, 8:00 p.m. eastern, 26.2,74.0 965 mb
Tomorrow evening, 26.8, 78.0 955 mb
Sunday evening, 28.0 81.0 965 mb
Monday evening, 33.0 79.5 970 mb
Tuesday evening, 38.5, 73.0 985 mb
Wednesday evening, 42.0, 65.0 985 mb
Going point-to-point and figuring out where the hourly locations would be (except for wed eve which is outside the range) these numbers are very similar to the 11AM forecast. Yes, I know point-to-point is not an accurate but its the best I have. Since he started at 8PM tonight, I used 8PM for each of the following evenings.
Here are the numbers based on the 11AM forecast:
Fri 8PM 26.2 74.1
Sat 8PM 26.8 78.9
Sun 8PM 29.3 81.3
Mon 8PM 32.6 79.95
Tue 8PM 37.25 73.75
Wed 8PM 42.75 65.25 (extrap)
I have an Excel SS that I developed which shows the hourly points. It also figures out where a location (ie: my house) falls within the wind field.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Just something on the WV loops. While they do help us sometimes see the "path" a hurricane will take, they're not always conclusive evidence of where a storm will turn or not turn. They do paint a good picture of what's going on in the atmosphere, but aren't the end all when it comes to storm movement. I'm not saying that the storm won't stay south, just that that information cannot always be garnered by watching the WV loops.
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Check the Surf
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jht off
Unregistered
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Just curious LI Phil,
Wht did Joe B have to say about ..Is he still thinking back into the gulf with a north central landfall again?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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AgentB,
I should have added that disclaimer when I went on about how good the WV loops are...they are but one tool out of many which allow us to see what the earth is doing...they should NEVER be used solely to predict future events...to my mind, though, nothing is better for showing ridges and trofs and where the twain shall meet...and they're purdy too.
EDIT: JB on : " The official declaration of s death will come later today. Its no matter we have to watch the gulf next week...unless 2) The disturbance that is left behind from the trof that was supposed to capture Jeanne and whisk her east comes west, in which case that will be in a nice position on its way west to try to develop. Moral is the eastern atlantic season is separate from the western season, which in this pattern can produce home brew"
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 07:27 PM)
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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Question:
Why are the stores running out of vinegar? Whats that for?
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Aaron H.
Unregistered
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2 pm advisory implies no further strengthening. Actually says "fluctuations. " Is this the position right now?? Cloud tops around the center are not super cold (no whites on the loop). Will this hold trus 'til landfall??? Thanks
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Pam in Vero
Unregistered
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I just saw something interesting for those of us just learning. I am originally from NM. On Ch 5...our locale forcaster mentioned that a dry early spring and summer means more hurricanes for us do to the Burmuda high sitting lower than average. That makes sense, we almost blew away in the dust this summer. Thought I was back in the high desert.
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Jane219ga
Registered User
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Loc: Valrico, FL
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Quote:
I suppose you're correct, and I thought that closing schools for was way premature, but now do they have to go the other EXTREME?
Just venting. 
They did the same thing in Hillsborough but the reason given was to be able to prepare the schools as shelters for those evacuating to this area. Kind of makes sense to a certain extent.
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Pam in Vero
Unregistered
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PS for those of us fighting with mold...use developer (used by hair stylists) 50-50 with water and spray on walls. You can buy it at Sally's type store.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Lee County Schools are waiting until Sunday to decide. Last time for they decided on Saturday and closed down that Monday, when there was no need. I guess they learned their lesson and are waiting a little longer this time before they make the call.
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Ocala
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ocala, FL
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Marion County has closed schools for Monday because they are opening the shelters to coastal evacuees tomorrow.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Maybe the vinegar fights mold too? Could that explain the shortage? Either that or people must be making a run on salad too...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
PS for those of us fighting with mold...use developer (used by hair stylists) 50-50 with water and spray on walls. You can buy it at Sally's type store.
Wouldn't that just collect wet dandruff then?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Volusia County is waiting, too.
All this "waiting" gives me an eery feeling.
Just a footnote: when was coming, my 8-year old son freaked. When was coming, he was calmer and said, "The winds aren't THAT bad." Do you know what he said today when he got home from school?
"MAN, WE'RE GONNA GET SPANKED." And promptly went to our closet to set up his little area so "I won't have to do it at the last minute."
Even the KIDS are beginning to think this is normal. 
I keep forgetting...is that "Thing 1" or "Thing 2" 
oops...sorry, Phil...that would be Thing 2, as he is the youngest.
Edited by Colleen A. (Fri Sep 24 2004 07:54 PM)
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RONJON
Unregistered
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I'm a newbie, but I've viewed the site through the last 3 canes..regarding the track, the most consistent model that I've seen the last 2-3 days is . It takes the track thru WPB up to Tampa and offshore in GOM to panhandle. The newest 12Z runs of the Canadian & UKMET (sorry folks I think the UKMET track is wrong on the site), take a "Frances" path across the state. I. like others, have noted a right-of-track bias with the & this season. The high is expansive centered near Norfolk, & reminds me of the Andrew pattern in '92. The trough over the upper Midwest is lifting into Canada so I just can't see this 90 deg turn north. But, heck, whatta I know.
Intensity - It looks as if the storm is getting its act together, right in time to hook up with 84F ocean water. If it wasn't for the dry air surrounding the storm, I'd say it could bomb to a CAT 4 b4 landfall. But with the dry air, maybe strong CAT 3. I think this storm will be stronger than . 1) was sheared significantly over the bahamas & never really got its act together prior to landfall (remember 60 nm eye), 2) no sign shear is forecast the next 36-48 hours for Jeanne,you've got an anticyclone over top doing some nice evacuation, & the gulf stream. Now one other factor, its the 3rd week of September and not late August, so maybe ocean temps have cooled slightly but there should be enuff juice for rapid intensification before landfall. It is a smaller size storm than , but she'll be stronger. Hmmm, I'm ready for crow pie.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Brevard county schools are closed on Monday.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
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Where is Scott? I wanted a last look at his forecast! Yesterday he had it pretty close to me. I have to go home and start evacuation... LI Phill your comment about the season from hell is true! I will fire up the ol'laptop later
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Kathy
26.2N
80.1W
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Maybe he's out buying vinegar. 
I'm sure he'll be here shortly...around 5ish or so. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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