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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Heather]
      #30822 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:41 AM

Reading up on theat site the last two years have been weird:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notable_tropical_cyclones#Others

One storm in April and two in December. Wonder if that'll happen this year(It already beat April with March in South America)

Quote:

Pre-season forecasts

On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with 12-15 tropical storms, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray's May 28 prediction was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength.

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing warmer oceans, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching category 3. Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 45% probability of above-normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.

A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.




Uhh..So how "wrong" have they been so far? I find it funny they downgraded the forcast before all the "fun" began.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30823 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:44 AM

Quote:

Miami Dade county Mayor and the Jewish leader reminded the community to have radio etc on hand to keep an eye on the storm. So they do have a way to monitor wihtout breaking religous beliefs


I am relieved that this is the case. I don't happen to practice the Jewish faith so I truly didn't know. Some religions are quite strict on interpretation of their laws.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ricreig]
      #30824 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:51 AM

Can anyone tell me why the 5am probablities are slightly higher that the eye will hit Ft. Myers and Marco Island instead of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami?

Confused yet again....


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ricreig]
      #30825 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:52 AM

Any religion that would encourage or even allow you to risk your safety does deserve a re-examination at best.

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Kent]
      #30826 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:52 AM

Thats a good question.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ricreig]
      #30827 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:53 AM

I dont get much sleep when situations like this happen. Landfall track is very hard to pinpoint still but its still on forecast as you see in my posts yesterday it will stablize near 26.1 and might even go under that briefly before a .1N every 6 hrs before the turn. Ill try to get to post more in a couple hours. Right now...time to relax have breakfest (sort of) and try to collect data before I rush out any thoughts.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Takingforever]
      #30828 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:54 AM

I can not say that I have any disagreement at all with the NHC's path. I would say 60 miles either side is a very likely path. Just a reminder, don't focus on the line. If you are within 50-60 miles of this line, you should plan as if it is going to pass right over you.

--------------------
Jim


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Kent]
      #30829 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:57 AM

Quote:

Can anyone tell me why the 5am probablities are slightly higher that the eye will hit Ft. Myers and Marco Island instead of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami?

Confused yet again....




I don't see that... for total probabilities Ft. Myers is at 14% and Miami is at 15%.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Roberta]
      #30830 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:01 AM

Quote:

First of all, I want to thank the owners and monitors of this board, who have for years now "kept my feet on the ground" regarding approaching hurricanes. Their "best guesses" have helped me with every storm as to whether evacuate or not, and my family just TRULY appreciates the hard work you all put in!
I am in Vero Beach, and there is still quite a bit of debri around from Frances, and am worried about this stuff becoming missiles in the wind of Jeanne. We JUST got our power back on this past Saturday and I am still dealing with a horrendous kidney infection contracted in the aftermath of Frances and the unsanitary conditions we all had to deal with.
None of us had power most of the month, but FPL STILL sent "estimated bills" which were only about $10 less than our usual...sooooo, we here in our neighborhood are really dreading what now seems to "the inevitable" and will be praying for others in Jeanne's path. What is most important is our safety...and THANK you all here for the good advice, both on meterological AND survival questions!



I echo your sentiments of appreciation. I think Ed, John and Mike truly deserve a mountain of praise and our support, support that they can use to buy more equipment and pay for their expenses in providing this truly unique and useful resource.

i also agree that those that contribute their time and effort to make posts that truly enlighten and educate us should also be thanked. I've been here a number of years, almost since Mike, et al, first started this board. During this time, I have greatly expanded my knowledge and in great part due to those like Scottvp, Clark, HankFrank, Frank P, and a host of others with good questions and reasoned thoughts like Colleen and to LI_Phil, one of the moderators that help guide our discussions.

Yes, a lot of thanks is owed by us all! Thanks to you all!

Now, about your power bill. I'd send them the $10 reduction and ESTIMATE the bill payment to cover it.... Seriously, request an ACTUAL meter reading and make them adjust the bill.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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tony
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MissBecky]
      #30831 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:03 AM

Well i guess he means that on earlier prediction, landfall would have been around ft. pierce and martin county. On newest prediction landfall is up north, around daytona beach...

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Kent]
      #30832 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:03 AM

Quote:

Can anyone tell me why the 5am probablities are slightly higher that the eye will hit Ft. Myers and Marco Island instead of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami?

Confused yet again....


It deals with absolute distance at that moment in time and not predicting landfall points. The assumption is that if you are within 65 miles of the forecast center at that time, you would be affected, not necessarily take a direct hit.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MissBecky]
      #30833 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:07 AM

"I don't see that... for total probabilities Ft. Myers is at 14% and Miami is at 15%".

I'm not looking at total I'm looking at 48 hours out. From what I ahve learned here thats as far as I take the forcasting for now.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: tony]
      #30834 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:08 AM

Quote:

Well i guess he means that on earlier prediction, landfall would have been around ft. pierce and martin county. On newest prediction landfall is up north, around daytona beach...




Be careful about drawing a straight line between points. Landfall is still predicted around Ft Pierce right now, not Daytona. Look at Skeetobites curved map or the link for the NRL and their rounded paths. These are more accurate depictions of the course forecast.

--------------------
Jim


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Kent]
      #30835 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:14 AM

Quote:

"I don't see that... for total probabilities Ft. Myers is at 14% and Miami is at 15%".

I'm not looking at total I'm looking at 48 hours out. From what I ahve learned here thats as far as I take the forcasting for
now.




That is the smarter thing to do, you're right.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Rasvar]
      #30836 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:14 AM

She's Wobbling - big time. No telling now.

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lois
Unregistered




probs keep going up for the keys too [Re: Ricreig]
      #30837 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:14 AM

just a comment.. i do understand how it works and it is worth a raised eyebrow no matter how you mathematically explain it

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: probs keep going up for the keys too [Re: lois]
      #30838 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:20 AM

Quote:

just a comment.. i do understand how it works and it is worth a raised eyebrow no matter how you mathematically explain it


You got that right! It isn't saying one point is more likely to be the landfall point, just that at the moment, it is more likely to be some absolute distance from the listed point. A storm, moving north might be closer to Miami at one point than say Ft Pierce, but it isn't saying Miami will be the landfall, just closer at some point in time to the current storm. Ft Pierce would still get the slam bam thankyou maam.

The raised eyebrow is the best reaction to the NHC probabilities forecasts...If it makes you look and get more data, then its done its job. Good observation IHMO

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: MikeC]
      #30839 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:21 AM

I'm sure you all saw a lot of footage of Pensacola on the news. We took an EXTREMELY bad hit here in Pensacola. The East quadrant of the Ivan eyewall went over Pensacola-which means we got NO break from the eye. We took a constant POUNDING from about 11PM Sept. 15 to about 5AM Sept. 16th. The wind gauge at Pensacola NAS hit 123mph before the gauge was destroyed. I JUST NOW got phone service. I'm running this computer on a generator. It's been a little over a week and no power yet. Ivan RUINED the main bridge on I-10 that I use just about every day. Traffic right now is KILLER. It takes over an hour for me to get where I want to go! My house survived despite the 10 trees down all over the property. I lost a few shingles-but I was very lucky compared to the folks down the road that live on the water....
One house on my street DISAPPEARED and several others lost EVERYTHING. The storm surge had to have been that of a Category 5 Hurricane! Ivan should have been kept as a 135mph CAT4 Hurricane right up to landfall because that's exactly the damage that it caused. 130mph CAT3 isn't at all different from a CAT4. The water came half way up my street. I never thought that would happen. INCREDIBLE. Fortunately it didn't make it this far up the street. Ivan surpassed all our expectations. Hurricane Opal was bad. Ivan was WORSE!! It's been literally a war zone around here. Gasoline is like gold.

It looks to me like Ivan's total bill will surpass that of Hurricane Andrew. Ivan was a HUGE storm compared to Andrew so the damage was more widespread. Not to mention-Ivan destoryed a major four lane highway bridge that folks from All over Florida to California use!!


I guess that's it for now. It's going to take a long time for folks here to get back to normal.

Jeanne--STAY AWAY! Do not touch Florida. Do NOT cross Florida. GO AWAY!!!!!


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #30840 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:22 AM

Wobbling and the eye has completely disappeared over the last hour. Not sure if this is significant or not... perhaps the dreaded ERC indicative of strengthening to a major hurricane. That's better answered by the experts on here.

AdmittedHacker

(still no witty phrase to insert here)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #30841 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:24 AM

Quote:

Wobbling and the eye has completely disappeared over the last hour. Not sure if this is significant or not... perhaps the dreaded ERC indicative of strengthening to a major hurricane. That's better answered by the experts on here.

AdmittedHacker

(still no witty phrase to insert here)




Not sure I see a wobble. Looks like she's still on 270 perhaps a little faster.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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