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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: SirCane]
      #30842 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:25 AM

SirCane...glad to see you back posting which means that you are okay...I'm so sorry for the people who took a direct hit from Ivan...please know you are in my thoughts and prayers as well as all of those effected by Ivan.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Roberta]
      #30843 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:28 AM

After Charley, we also got an estimated bill.. which was hardly different from our normal bill.. with a note that it would be adjusted. When they finally DID read the meter, there was still little difference (even though power was off for 2 weeks and we are not living there right now). That's when I told my husband to shut off the air conditioner. He was leaving it on to guard against mold, etc .. but with no ceilings or insulation in most of the rooms, and holes in the sides.. I figure we were air conditioning all of Pt Charlotte!! Hope it goes down a BUNCH next month..

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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: nandav]
      #30844 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:32 AM

At what point will the confidence level (if any) of the track occur. My husband is supposed to leave the country for a week, but will stay if it looks bad for us. We are in SW Volusia County.

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heidib
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Jupiter, Florida
Estimated bill [Re: nandav]
      #30845 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:32 AM

I live in Jupiter, where we were without electricity for 11 days. I am looking at my "estimated bill" and based on KWH usage, the bill looks pretty accurate and like they prorated out the 11 days we were without electric. However, if I only look at the total amount of the bill, it would look like we are paying too much. Maybe that explains why you might think your estimated bill is too high?

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30846 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:35 AM

Thanks Colleen....

Just happy to have made it through that rough night safely! That's the main thing. Some folks near the water that should have evacuated-but didn't-didn't make it.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30847 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:35 AM

Quote:

SirCane...glad to see you back posting which means that you are okay...I'm so sorry for the people who took a direct hit from Ivan...please know you are in my thoughts and prayers as well as all of those effected by Ivan.



SirCane, I couldn't have said it better. I see a lot of 'Camille' in the pictures I see coming from your area and I *know* the job ahead of you and your neighbors. I pray for your strength to be enough to recover your lives. I know that it will *never* be 'normal', whatever that is, again. It will become the norm, but what you knew as normal won't ever happen again. Even if everything was rebuilt exactly as it was, you will never forget Ivan. But, you will learn to cope with and maybe even enjoy the new 'normal' in time. I did with Camille, and I suspect strongly that you and your neighbors will also after Ivan. I pray that this is the case.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: SirCane]
      #30848 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM

It's difficult enough seeing what Charley did to Punta Gorda and Pt Charlotte.. and adjusting to life that will never be quite the same again. I can't imagine what it must be like in Pensacola... at least we didn't have the storm surge and it was all over pretty quickly. Still, the devastation is hard to imagine.. I know that pictures of our area only tell part of the story.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: SirCane]
      #30849 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM

Funny I was without power for a couple days,,,got my electric bill and it was higher then normal. Maybe they increase the outage price slightly to compensate for their loss in earnings during power outages. I would doubt that but I though of it the other day and with everyone saying their bills are the same or more without power,, makes you skeptical.

Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM)


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MadDog]
      #30850 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM

Quote:

At what point will the confidence level (if any) of the track occur. My husband is supposed to leave the country for a week, but will stay if it looks bad for us. We are in SW Volusia County.


With that criteria for staying, I think your husband should stay with you.

At this point in time, NOONE knows where it will go, but I think the confidence that this area will be affected. The question is more 'How bad' than 'IF". Both of you will feel better if it is possible for him to delay leaving for a few days.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Fletch]
      #30851 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM

Yes, it still looks to be going west...maybe a little bit faster than 8mph. Guess we'll find out soon enough....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30852 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:41 AM

New spaghetti model up.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp


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COgal
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #30853 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:41 AM

Jeanne is a crazy, crazy girl!

Jeanne has come just about full circle. On monday her position was 26 Lat 71.9 long and now this am she is at 26.1 Lat 72 Long.

(If I have been reading her position right! My eyes not as good as they used to be!)

Edited by COgal (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:42 AM)


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30854 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:41 AM

Where's that hex guy? My house (and insurance) in Deltona CANNOT take another hit. I understand they are saying that if the power goes off again, it will take even longer to get it all restored again.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30855 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:42 AM

I suspect any change will be minor. Really have not seen any changes that would make me think there would be a major update in the forecast. Granted, when I think that way, some big update usually happens and surprises me.

--------------------
Jim


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BOB IN YORK PA
Unregistered




Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: SirCane]
      #30856 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:43 AM

I was stationed at correy station in 1979 when in navy and thought penacola was one of the nicest places around. How bad is it there off of beach. I know it had to be real bad at beach. I to will be praying this latest storm will curve back out to see I have family in Ft Lauderdale.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: Ricreig]
      #30857 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:43 AM

Thanks Ricreig....

That's exaclty what people have compared Ivan to-even though Ivan didn't hit as a CAT 5. The surge looked like a CAT 5 surge though-maybe because Ivan was a CAT5 for so long at one time. We're trying to get back to normal around here but it's very difficult. As long as Jeanne stays away-we'll be ok.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30858 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:43 AM

yeah dry air has entrained into the center right now. No strengthning expected for the next 12 hours but later tonight into the morning is when I feel a more modest strengthning faze to go into affect. Warmer SSTs ahead of her, good outflow, and more moisture in the mid layers. The dry air is being entrained into her from the strong ridge to its NNW diving se. This ridge is also why she has nudged just s of due west over the last 2 hrs but I think they will keep her at w movement.

Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:46 AM)


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30859 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:44 AM

I don't think it's an eyewall replacement cycle. Just some clouds covering the eye which has happened a couple of times each day. One thing I did see on both the infrared and WV loops is a nice patch of white(WV)/blue(IR) getting wrapped in around the eye. Could be a little of that surrounding dry air.

Edit-LOL, looks like Scott beat me to it.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:46 AM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: AgentB]
      #30860 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:48 AM

At first glance, appears to be a very light adjustment to the west at 11:00.

--------------------
Jim


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: AgentB]
      #30861 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:49 AM

ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12Z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.

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