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Area in Gulf (92L) Up to 80%. This will likely be mostly a rain event on the east side (perhaps well east) of landfall later.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Zeta) , Major: 292 (Laura) Florida - Any: 979 (Michael) Major: 979 (Michael)
40.5N 62.0W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 998mb
Moving:
Ne at 38 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: AgentB]
      #30862 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:49 AM

Some convection really beginning to fire now. Scotsvb/Colleen/RAS, what intensity do yous forecast for her at the peak? SSTs are warm west of her, just wondering what or if any shear will develop before if gets near the coast. Does anyone still feel she will cross the peninsula?? Anxious in Palm Bay...No time to check models, thanks!

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
11AM Track is out.. [Re: AgentB]
      #30863 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:51 AM

Waiting on Discussion..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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lois
Unregistered




then again as a trend the probs are great [Re: Ricreig]
      #30864 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:52 AM

for example... when they were insisting Ivan was going to hit the West Coast of Florida or Big Bend area and bend back towards the NE there were no probs for New Orleans.

New probs came out and suddenly New Orleans had a low prob.

Didn't mean to me that New Orleans was going to get the storm but did indicate that there was some question as to how far left the track might be shifted.

for example...... oh and of course soon after we began to hear about Mobile


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Morning All... [Re: AgentB]
      #30865 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:52 AM

Well, just got through reading everyone's posts from midnight thru now...excellent work all...to SirCane and everyone still feeling the wrath of Ivan, my prayers and thoughts continue to go out to you...scott & Richard & Colleen sure burned the midnight oil and kept things from getting crazy...thanks to you guys...

The "hex" guy is the Rabbit...if there was ever a time for the patented "Rabbit Voodoo Hex" [tm HF], that time is now...the new and updated definition of the Rabbit Voodoo Hex (maybe Mike will include it with the other 'terms' like wishcasting and wave mongering) is:

Rabbit Voodoo Hex: The weakening and/or complete dissolution of an otherwise healthy system for no apparent reason.

Bugs, if you're out there, work your magic.

Anyhoo...things may be looking up this morning, emphasis on may...too many variables right now...11:00 is probably out, so I need to look at that right now.

Thanks to all who praised the site...Mike, John & Ed do an outstanding job...welcome to all new new members...and thanks for the great job by the long time members!

Back at 'cha in a bit.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #30866 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:53 AM

I am pretty much along with NHC on this one. Looks like 110-120MPH will be her peak winds, IMHO. I think she will be closer to 100-110 at landfall myself.

--------------------
Jim


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: SirCane]
      #30867 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:55 AM

I can't imagine going through Ivan at night....that must have been extremely frightening. Why do they always seem to make landfall at 4am?
I read about the people who decided to stay and didn't make it. Unfortunately, some people are willing to risk their lives to avoid the inconvenience of evacuating or they just think that they will make it through it. That's very sad, but it happens too often even though they are warned to leave. If an offical came to my house telling me that if I don't evacuate I'd have to give them the name of the next of kin, that would jolt me to the core.
Is the hassle of evacuating worth your life? Do they think of the people that love them that they are leaving behind? Maybe it's just me, but I don't think I could do that to my family. However, it's still very sad.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Rasvar]
      #30868 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:56 AM

Moron on TWC said 969 miles per hour,LOL. I know it was a slip of the tounge mistake,, but just think of the 1s who heard him say that and dont know much about the weather. THEY ARE FREAKING AND IM SURE TELLING PEOPLE AT WORK AND THE STORES,,TWC SAID ITS 969MILES AN HOUR NOW!!

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: scottsvb]
      #30869 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 AM

Quote:

ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12Z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.


Scott,
Last night your forecast, with which I agreed BTW, called for an East Coast Florida track +/- a dozen or so miles from the coast. Are you still leaning that way or are you toying with the idea of a 'Frances' transversal of the Central Florida area?

Me, I'm definitely toying with that idea more and more. I'm not ready to buy that package just yet, but I'm increasingly becoming an 'easy sale' customer. I'm guilty of turning *hope* into *forecast" using the same criteria I warn others against: "Because it hurts ME less" models. I continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Best = fewest people affected,with the least damage

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: scottsvb]
      #30870 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 AM

Wooooooo! 969 MPH! Is that Cat 10?

--------------------
Jim


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Storms at night [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30871 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:58 AM

Quote:

I can't imagine going through Ivan at night.



Are there actually hurricanes that make landfall during the day? I can't think of any. I think that is my prediction. Jeanne will hit at night.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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lois
Unregistered




re: richard person and the wv.. [Re: Rasvar]
      #30872 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:58 AM

takes a long, long time to really understand all the nuiances of the water vapor imagery

it is often mentioned as a tool by some of the better forecasters at the NHC in discussion

it is not used alone but it will often show you what is evolving in different levels of the atmosphere when you move back and forth between other sats and obs

the storm will move in the atmosphere whichever way it is easiest.. as many have said "like something dropped into a stream" so while on IR and VIS something may look tougher than nails or about to erode... the water vapor shows an evolving pattern that will often become tomorrows IR or VIS

And...yes as you said you have to know what to adjust for when looking at it. Because as with most things online "what you see is not always what you get"


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: then again as a trend the probs are great [Re: lois]
      #30873 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:59 AM

Quote:

for example... when they were insisting Ivan was going to hit the West Coast of Florida or Big Bend area and bend back towards the NE there were no probs for New Orleans.

New probs came out and suddenly New Orleans had a low prob.

Didn't mean to me that New Orleans was going to get the storm but did indicate that there was some question as to how far left the track might be shifted.

for example...... oh and of course soon after we began to hear about Mobile


Your reasoning and conclusions are right on! That's how it should have been viewed, IMO.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Storms at night [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30874 - Fri Sep 24 2004 10:59 AM

Quote:

Quote:

I can't imagine going through Ivan at night.



Are there actually hurricanes that make landfall during the day? I can't think of any. I think that is my prediction. Jeanne will hit at night.




Charley made landfall around 4:00 in the afternoon.

Edited by MissBecky (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:01 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Jeanne discussion [Re: MissBecky]
      #30875 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:04 AM

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: scottsvb]
      #30876 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:06 AM

Quote:

ETA (again not a good hurricane tracking model to use but better then the tropical model suites) 12Z run is out showing a more southerly route compared to the 6z run. Now showing inland near WPB in 36hrs across to Sarasota-Ft Myers by 48hrs.




Scott, the 11 a.m. discussion mentions possible movement south of due west. Would this support those models like ETA and NOGAPS, that take Jeanne across the peninsula? Or is this southward motion expected to be short-lived?


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lois
Unregistered




her track... [Re: MissBecky]
      #30877 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:06 AM

she doesnt seem to be wobbling... someone said that a page before and trying to see what they mean.. if anything her eye seems to be wrapped better and maybe bigger .. looking at discussion will see.. dont see wobbling tho, see west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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troy
Unregistered




Re: her track... [Re: lois]
      #30878 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 AM

i think the 11am discussion also said it would be a short lived short of west movement...

never thought I would look forward to the end of hurricane season...

troy
cocoa beach


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MissBecky]
      #30879 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 AM

Where'd you get the discussion from? It's not on the NHC site yet.

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sthorne
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: scottsvb]
      #30880 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 AM

Well, then at least we could be SURE the rest of what's left of St. Lucie County would blow away.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: her track... [Re: lois]
      #30881 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM

Quote:

she doesnt seem to be wobbling... someone said that a page before and trying to see what they mean.. if anything her eye seems to be wrapped better and maybe bigger .. looking at discussion will see.. dont see wobbling tho, see west



Lois,
I've seen several of your posts and they are really good. I just wish you'd register so I can PM you (My first girlfriend's name was Lois and I'm on the prowl <grin>) Seriously, take the plunge, you'd be a asset here I think.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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