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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Zeta) , Major: 338 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30882 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM

Quote:

Where'd you get the discussion from? It's not on the NHC site yet.




Weather Underground. They always seem to have it up before the NHC.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: sthorne]
      #30883 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: scottsvb]
      #30884 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM

Even though Im not a fan of the ETA it I feel has the right idea on the movement of Jeanne for THIS RUN. ETA and of course other models will change from run to run but its showing when crossing florida a general turn to the wnw then nw in the gulf and NO NNW or N turn. I mean lets face it, didnt we learn from Charley on seeing what Bonnie did. Should we have seen that since Bonnie went more ene then shouldnt Charley turn sooner? Well with Ivan going into LA,TX boarder he basically went wnw-nw around the ridge diving into the midatlantic region. Shouldnt Jeanne do the same instead of going more NNW or N almost immediatly when getting near the coast. Where is the strong trough that is suppose to do that? Its just that its forecasted to move around the ridge and the ridge is suppose to orient in a more NNW-SSE fashion, which i feel it will be alittle flatter cause there is no strong trough it squeeze the ridge. There is a trough that will go thru the great lakes region into the NE over the weekend but nothing I feel to really cause such a turn. My forecast remains the same with it coming near WPB then moving inland with a gradual turn towards the NW over the state then (giving some respect to the eastern models) a turn more towards the north over central florida. I wouldnt be surprised more if it doesnt get into the gulf. Im not saying it will defidently come inland but I dont see it missing (if it does) florida by more then 50 miles. My track on the 11am NHC is just alittle west of theirs.

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lois
Unregistered




would this support that? [Re: MissBecky]
      #30885 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:11 AM

yes becky.. it would

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sthorne
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: her track... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30886 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:13 AM

I think I'm seeing a slight elongation in the last frames... pointing to the west. Could be inexperinced eyeballs, though.

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: would this support that? [Re: lois]
      #30887 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:14 AM

Quote:

yes becky.. it would




People in this area are worried ever since Charley, and I think with good reason. We've seen firsthand how unpredictable hurricanes can be. If there is a chance Jeanne will go across the state and affect the west coast, I hope that sources like NHC or TWC begin to speak of it earlier rather than later, giving us more time to prepare.


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: Storms at night [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30888 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:15 AM

Charley hit in the middle of the day.. we had just eaten my "birthday dinner". Waited until it was over to have birthday cake.. by then the candles were a necessity!

In 1976, my husband and I went through a Supertyphoon (Typhoon Pam) on Guam .. 12 hours, 200 knot winds with an eye that took 3 hours to pass over. The first part of that one also hit in the middle of the day. We could see the whole thing from the school where I was a shelter nurse.

So it does sometimes happen in daylight!!


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lois
Unregistered




for people watching probs [Re: MissBecky]
      #30889 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:16 AM

miami is up to 19 in overall probs

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Storms at night [Re: nandav]
      #30890 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:16 AM

stewart again said some of the same things I posted earlier.,..hold on hes calling me and wanting to know what to put in the 2pm discussion,,,,,brb LOL jk.

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lois
Unregistered




speaking of it earlier... sooner rather than later [Re: MissBecky]
      #30891 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:18 AM

nhc has made mention time and again to the stubborn NOGAPS that continues more westbound than the others... and its available to the public

if the GFDL or GFS models would agree with NOGAPS youd see sudden talk everywhere

just the eta model info has been mentioned

trust me if you live in miami or our general area you would know norcross will mention it


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: for people watching probs [Re: lois]
      #30892 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:20 AM

yes and Daytona is now up to 21, I live 20 miles in from the coast of Daytona. woooooo!

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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lois
Unregistered




for scott [Re: scottsvb]
      #30893 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:21 AM

tell him when you call that I got the part about leaving a radio on... will leave a tv on a chosen channel in the "back room" which I hope will be there after sundown on saturday night (jeanne seems to speed up a drop) and we do thank him for his concern and sorry but i will be offline and unavailable for discussion until after sundown Sat. nite. Phone lines permitting

thanks

ps...anyone who wants me knows where to find me.. as we have witnessed in the past during the high holidays.


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CJ
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Fort Myers, FL
Re: Storms at night [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30894 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:22 AM

Charley hit at 3:30 in the afternoon.

You can see how far MissBecky and I live from each other...30 minutes as the hurricane crawls...

Edited by CJ (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:27 AM)


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: speaking of it earlier... sooner rather than later [Re: lois]
      #30895 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:23 AM

Unfortunately most people probably couldn't find NOGAPS. And despite all the NHC has said about not focusing on the line of the track, people still do just that. I know a girl who, on the afternoon Charley hit, decided to watch a movie instead of keeping the local news on. She told me that the last she had heard, the track took the hurricane into Tampa and not Ft. Myers, so she decided things would be okay. I'm not saying everyone is like that, but many people will wait until the last minute to make preparations. If they are urged to do so earlier, hopefully some will listenand take action.

I agree that your posts are great, Lois. Thanks!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: for scott [Re: lois]
      #30896 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:26 AM

scottsvb has been uncanny with these storms recently...will give you a free pass on Earl...we all thought that would be something...

been trolling my major sources for predictions & updates, and unfortunately, the news isn't good...and a lot in line with what scott has been saying.

With the Haitian death toll rising steadily, and the Bahamas her next target as a likely CAT III, I don't think Jeanne is going to be on the list in 2010...

There's a killer on the road
Her brain is squirmin' like a toad
Take a long holiday
Let your children play

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Speed at Landfall [Re: MikeC]
      #30897 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:29 AM

What are the latest estimates for how fast Frances...er... Jeanne will be moving when she makes landfall? Not windspeed, but forward motion?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: for scott [Re: LI Phil]
      #30898 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:30 AM

Well I got the general direction on earl, just I thought it would slow down some to let it organize. It didnt. So I count that as a X. I get 1-2 a year. So im due again before the season ends maybe.

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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle
Curious about FSU Model [Re: nandav]
      #30899 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:31 AM

Maybe I've just been distracted by all of the post-Ivan activities in my neck of the woods, but I haven't heard much about what the FSU Superensemble is doing with Jeanne. As I recall, it was the FSU model that first moved many meteorological eyes toward the FL/AL border during Ivan 1.0. Does anyone know what their latest projections are leaning toward?

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Morning All... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30900 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:32 AM

Quote:

...scott & Richard & Colleen sure burned the midnight oil and kept things from getting crazy...thanks to you guys...



Scottsvb and Colleen were the driving force last night. My night was yesterday I did wake up about 6:30 and couldn't resist the urge to toss in a thought or two during the moring though. Shoot, you gotta sleep too guy. Glad to see you back online, and like you, am truly happy to see SirCane back online.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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CJ
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Fort Myers, FL
Re: for scott [Re: LI Phil]
      #30901 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 AM

Quote:


There's a killer on the road
Her brain is squirmin' like a toad
Take a long holiday
Let your children play




Another former Florida resident...Jim Morrison (went to FSU for a while). Riders on the Storm...should be made the theme song for Florida.


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