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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Zeta) , Major: 338 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Interesting to note.. [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30922 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 AM

I found it interesting that Tampa has a higher probability of seeing Jeanne than Jacksonville in the NHC probability chart.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT1+shtml/241441.shtml?


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle
Re: for scott [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30923 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 AM

If we got the politicans AND the media to coordinate their hot air against Jeanne, we might actually get some results... At this point we Floridians are willing to give anything a shot.

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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: for scott [Re: Ricreig]
      #30924 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:58 AM

I agree with you 100% Richard. No disrespect intended! LI Phil is the ultimate bread butterer here. Thats why I BELIEVE he has the power to do what I asked...

Seriously though It was an exchage that LI Phil allowed here because he knows how much tension we are all going through. He knows when to let us vent a little.

It really starts to wear on you...expecially when you are tring to get your 80 year old mother to come down to Ft. Laud. from Vero Beach. Sure would hate to have her come here if she would have been safer there.

I think I may be having some Hurricane Andrew flashbacks as well. It seems to me I remember looking due west at that monster too.

sigh


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: for scott [Re: Kal]
      #30925 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:59 AM

LOL....maybe Dan Rather could do it for us...that would give him a shot at keeping his "good reputation", LOL...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: for scott [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30926 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:01 PM

Quote:

I think the only hope we would have is if we got every single politician in this country to make a long line up and down the east coast of Florida and blow all THEIR hot air towards Jeanne. That might work, but......

Then we'd have to hear hours and hours of who did the best job of blowing Jeanne away and the talking heads would do polls to see who had more hot air to blow than others.

I just don't see that working.


Colleen, that is the best solution to two major problems I have seen in a while. First, it would probably blow Jeanne back to the other side of Africa, and second, if it failed to work as you suggested in your last sentence, then, at a minimum, it might change the direction of the storm enough to deflect the storm surge to the area occupied by the politicians lining the shore and eliminate the 2nd problem before it gets starated...again.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
St. Lucie County [Re: Ricreig]
      #30927 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:05 PM

St. Lucie County is looking for shelter help. It seems they only have 4 shelters for the entire county that can open. All the other shelters were too damaged from Frances.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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lois
Unregistered




Have to tell all of you... I am not happy [Re: nandav]
      #30928 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:06 PM

I don't like being told that what I see with my own eyes and the knowledge that I do possess and being told to rely on a blending of ALL the models of which many are inconsistant.

Really sorry here but I want analysis.. not explanation of models. I wanted it in 1996.. now I understand the models and I have to tell you something... they are inconsistent fickle lovers. Best left at the altar. You find the model that is reading the situation the best...the environment.. both high and lows and wind flow and you watch it more carefully than the others. If it aint broken dont fix it and if it isn't working..don't use it.

Right now the ridge is stronger than it is being read. As said by Stewart who is one of the all time best (in my opinon) and if you look at the WV (which we use BECAUSE it shows better pics of the HIGHS) you will see there is a big problem and it isn't in Houston..

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
back to the Reality [Re: LI Phil]
      #30929 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:08 PM

I suppose the models will start trending the storm either more north or more westward. That High appears to want to travel along with Jeanne and slam her along the eastern coast. I am not convinced that the weakness in the ridge will be forceful enough to push Jeanne northward, but I guess I must wiat for the models to get updated and do indeed look forward to the 5PM update from the NHC.

South Florida could now be at greater risk for this, but eventually we will all feel hurricane winds along the coast.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: for scott [Re: Kal]
      #30930 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:08 PM

Quote:

If we got the politicans AND the media to coordinate their hot air against Jeanne, we might actually get some results... At this point we Floridians are willing to give anything a shot.


See, that just goes to show you that even a good suggestion can be improved...good suggestion....should we add Lawyers, motorcycle cops with a quota and other otherwise useless.....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Interesting to note.. [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #30931 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:10 PM

The NHC probablilities often confuse people. They do not represent the probablilty of a direct hit for a given location, but rather the chance of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles of the listed locations from now to 48 hours from now. Since locations in southern FL are closer to Hurricane Jeanne at the moment, then their probabilities will be higher. It does not necessarily mean that there is a greater chance she will hit there. Only that she will come close to these areas sooner.

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TIGER
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FL
JUST FOR EVERYONE'S INFO [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30932 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:10 PM

I just came back from 'trying' to pick up a few things. Store shelves are almost totally empty. There were only 2 little votive candles to be had in a whole store. I was told no deliveries were going to be made tomorrow that they knew of.

Gas stations have 3 rows (minimum of 7 cars each) of cars sitting waiting to get gas and it was only the morning, omg!

I saw people on the side of the road last weekend trying to sell their used plywood, lmao, BET THEY'RE SORRY NOW!

On another note, as usual, all of you on this site give the best information available, and I thank you all immensely for that, you're all FANTASTIC !!!!!!!!! My son is constantly saying 'You're not on that site again are you Mom?', or 'Let me guess, you're gonna go on your hurricane site!', LMAO!!!

MY BEST WISHES TO EVERYONE OUT THERE WHO IS IN THE PATH OF THIS ONE TOO, GOD BLESS YOU AND YOURS, AND TRY TO REMEMBER........MATERIAL THINGS ARE REPLACEABLE (as hard as it may be), BUT FAMILY AND FRIENDS AREN'T! IF WE HAVE A LOVED ONE TO HUG, WE ARE THE LUCKIEST PERSON IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: for scott [Re: Kent]
      #30933 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 PM

Quote:

I agree with you 100% Richard. No disrespect intended! LI Phil is the ultimate bread butterer here. Thats why I BELIEVE he has the power to do what I asked...



No disirespect perceived and I've been following the 'inside joke' Phil We need a breath of fresh air here occasionally, just not ones supplied by Jeanne and her ilk. Yours Kent, is the right kind. (unless you have a storm named after you in the future)

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: for scott [Re: Ricreig]
      #30934 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 PM

Great suggestion Richard

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy [Re: lois]
      #30935 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 PM

Lois, it's entirely (and likely) possible that I'm reading this wrong...but on the Unisys map...it looks to me like the southern part of the ridge is moving faster than the northern section? Does anyone else see this?

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lois
Unregistered




colleen [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30936 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:16 PM

i read what you read... we all do

we also read that even tho the models are not measuring the strength of the del marva high which you can read WELL on WV becuase it is MUCH darker than the dark black that it is in and btw...its moving south and a bit west of south which builds the high's nose out to the west more keeping that much expected curve to the NW in question

WV shows best not moisture as much as lack of moisture and... I heard they were hoping that the high would build in around the back side of Jeanne and help to lift/kick her up more to the NW and NNW but when you look at the http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

you see showers beginning to form instead of high pressure to the SE of her

I would think THAT is a problem

Going back to the visible which I do use btw..

Wondering what the 5 will show in track.
and...WHEN pray tell are they posting a warning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

seems to be speeding up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

any thoughts colleen?


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dwlobo
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 21
Loc: Palmetto, FL
Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy [Re: MissBecky]
      #30937 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:18 PM

For those of us lurking in the background, what is the impact of that?

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COgal
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
Re: Curious about FSU Model [Re: MissBecky]
      #30938 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:19 PM

Speaking of links:
Can anyone provide the best link where I can take a look at that "inverted trough"?


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lois
Unregistered




define southern part of the ridge? [Re: MissBecky]
      #30939 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:19 PM

do you mean the western part?

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Ginni
Unregistered




Re: I'm Back! From the Ivan War Zone! [Re: SirCane]
      #30940 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:20 PM

[quote It's been literally a war zone around here.

I just got back from Pensacola and I agree with this! My daughter goes to Pensacola Christian College. She caught a ride home Friday night and had to be back on campus on Monday. Traffic was horrendous! But the town looks like a third world country. No signs. No billboards. No landmarks. Bricks peeled off buildings. Tree's uprooted, leaning and some just snapped off like toothpicks at 4 ft from the ground. The devastation in Pensacola is unbelievable.

I'm in Central Florida and definately have Hurricane Fatigue ... but after seeing Pensacola and the damage Ivan did there, I'll never take one complacently !!!!!!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: for scott [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30941 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:21 PM

Quote:

Great suggestion Richard


Thank you, thank you, (taking a bow), but it isn't *my* suggestion unfortunately. My mind can't conceive of such emminantly PRACTICAL ideas <grin>

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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